Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II

[BraseltonGAWX]

im going to have to agree with snowstorm for once and I think that down sloping has a lot to do with this. I personally expect at least a couple or more nights in the teens every winter and a day or two around freezing. Being in the NW part of the state helps with cold advection as well as my elevation as I can avoid down sloping.

I agree for you and I north of Atl that it is more common. I was referring to KATL, which is what the model output and original post was referring to. If it hits 18 at KATL, I will be close to 10 and you probably will be too. That is indeed unusual in these parts and is what Cheeze and Delta were referring to.

Case in point last winter the lowest temp at KATL was 23 and the lowest min was 41.

[BullCityWx]

I can attest to that Cola heat. I was there when they set the the SC state record of 113 on the USC campus.

[chapelhillwx]

I can attest to that Cola heat. I was there when they set the the SC state record of 113 on the USC campus.

 

It's like Florida, but with less redeeming qualities.

[pcbjr]

January thaw?

 

[Jon]

January thaw?

 

814temp.new.gif

It's certainly on the table, but I wouldn't look at CPC maps for this period we're going into...there's no telling how much of a thaw we have and how long it lasts before we get a better idea of where this PV is gonna go.

 

"FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE 

TO UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICIPATED RETROGRESSIVE CIRCULATION 

PATTERN OVER THE CONUS, AND POOR AGREEMENT AMONG TEMPERATURE TOOLS FOR MUCH OF 

THE COUNTRY."

[Bevo]

The best chances for snow are the meteorlogical winter months Dec-Feb, people keep harping that winter has only just started, but snow chances in the south drop drastically after February.  The freak storms that can happen in March are the only reason cities show any type of average snowfall for the month.  Atlanta probably has measurable snowfall one out of every eight Marches or something like that.

 

See below

 

stats show March snowfall averages are higher than dec. Pick a se city and its the same in almost all, including Atlanta.

 

The stats are correct. Aside from 1 (maybe 2) big January snows since 2000, my biggest snows have occurred during the first two weeks of March. 

 

As to where winter seems to be going pattern wise, I see no reason to think it will be any different than it has been (as Snowniner also stated), which is still an improvement from my initial thoughts back in October.  In comparison to the last two winters, it has been light years better as temps go (although there seems to be a sharp line dividing the cold regions and the warm regions so far - many of us have been cold, while many have been warm).  The PAC is still driving this pattern, just not as abysmally as the last two years.  With that said, the NAO situation is definitely an amplified problem right now. 

[pcbjr]

It's certainly on the table, but I wouldn't look at CPC maps for this period we're going into...there's no telling how much of a thaw we have and how long it lasts before we get a better idea of where this PV is gonna go.

 

"FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE 

TO UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICIPATED RETROGRESSIVE CIRCULATION 

PATTERN OVER THE CONUS, AND POOR AGREEMENT AMONG TEMPERATURE TOOLS FOR MUCH OF 

THE COUNTRY."

 

 I know!

 

Hence my "?".

 

Looking at the Euro I'm seeing LR hints in the same direction, though.

 

My solace - models have not been doing too well lately.

 

My theory - this is a unique or at least unusual setup they are not used to calculating.

[griteater]

Euro Ensemble in line with its previous run.  Stout cold shot early next week, then transitions into a +EPO / +AO pattern days 9-16 with above normal heights in the eastern U.S.

[BIG FROSTY]

I am almost positive his outlook had cold centered over the Oh Valley, down through the TN valley, and he had 130% of normal snowfall for all of TN and much of NC.  Anyone have the maps he put out?

 

Nope looks like north and west of NC 133%

[superjames1992]

Bastardi reiterated this morning the predominant pattern this winter would not favor SE snows. He mentioned he has seen nothing to deviate from that general pattern outlook.

Our best hope is to take what we can get in NC from any upslope snow, but even that is hard to come by as we get into the last 2 weeks of the core of winter this year.

I am not convinced there is anything on the immediate horizon to provide any blocking to slow this pattern down and give us a winter storm.

 

I'm almost 100% sure most in central/western NC will get snow before the winter is over.  Climatology pretty much says it's a given.  In SC, you start getting more iffy, but even in Greenville, etc., I'd think that seeing accumulating snow in a given winter has to be a 90%+ probability event.

 

People need to stop giving up.  Geez, we've got months to go and no one can predict that far out with a reasonable amount of skill.  The pattern might suck over the long-run, but all it takes is a few days where the indices line up and we have fireworks.  As far as I can tell/remember, the winter of 1999-2000 was God awful minus the two-week glory run in late January, but I think a lot of us (in central/eastern NC, anyways) will always love that winter just because of a couple events in a two-week period.

[jburns]

I'm almost 100% sure most in central/western NC will get snow before the winter is over.  Climatology pretty much says it's a given.  In SC, you start getting more iffy, but even in Greenville, etc., I'd think that seeing accumulating snow in a given winter has to be a 90%+ probability event.

 

People need to stop giving up.  Geez, we've got months to go and no one can predict that far out with a reasonable amount of skill.  The pattern might suck over the long-run, but all it takes is a few days where the indices line up and we have fireworks.  As far as I can tell/remember, the winter of 1999-2000 was God awful minus the two-week glory run in late January, but I think a lot of us (in central/eastern NC, anyways) will always love that winter just because of a couple events in a two-week period.

We will probably set a bit. But currently we seem to be stuck in the Lucy pattern.

 

Cast:

 

Euro played by Lucy

 

SE Forum played by Charlie Brown

 

Winter storms played by, "The Football"

 

[BIG FROSTY]

We will probably set a bit. But currently we seem to be stuck in the Lucy pattern.

 

Cast:

 

Euro played by Lucy

 

SE Forum played by Charlie Brown

 

Winter storms played by, "The Football"

 

Good one JB!!

[Cold Rain]

We will probably set a bit. But currently we seem to be stuck in the Lucy pattern.

Cast:

Euro played by Lucy

SE Forum played by Charlie Brown

Winter storms played by, "The Football"

 

Good grief!

Don't get Larry started!!

[metalicwx366]

Lol @ the 18z GFS. So close to giving me a snow event around 180 hours. 850mb temps are a little above freezing and surface temps are right near freezing.

[tarheelwx]

Throw in the persistent 500 mile north shift and we may get some action. For those of us in the Carolina's, you have to like the look at 192.

TW

[Marion_NC_WX]

talk about supression...the last computer model run of 2013 (18z GFS) continues to bring the mother load of cold Day 7. However, there is plenty moisture lurking over the Gulf, got a weak low over Key West at 192...

Houston actually gets a period of mixed precip at 168-174

[MichaelJ]

According to the Ensemble mean of the 12z GFS, the really cold air coming up does not get south of Richmond and then we warm up until after the 15th of Jan.

[BIG FROSTY]

 For some strange reason it don't snow anymore around here. Every time a model shows snow here whether 2 days or 2 weeks out I won't believe it until I see it falling from the skies.... Models are worse now than several years ago? Nice upgrades they keep doing to them, all of them. lol

[BIG FROSTY]

According to the Ensemble mean of the 12z GFS, the really cold air coming up does not get south of Richmond and then we warm up until after the 15th of Jan.

This is more believable!!!

[Jon]

FWIW the Canadian is still cold

[BullCityWx]

Some of y'all need a xanax

[BIG FROSTY]

Some of y'all need a Xanax

no a lot of us need some snow! Best fix ever!!!

[Met1985]

Some of y'all need a xanax

Lol. Looking at the 18z gfs it did not look that bad. Keeps most of the bitter cold just north but a step in the right direction. More towards the Euro. Still a lot of time to iron out things.

[GaWx]

Lol @ the 18z GFS. So close to giving me a snow event around 180 hours. 850mb temps are a little above freezing and surface temps are right near freezing.

 

 That looks like a big mess and would probably be pretty historic if it were to verify as modeled!  A little later (say between 192 and 204 hours (late on 1/8) looks like a very rare ZR to me for Waycross into far north central FL. The ZR also extends northeastward to just west of Savannah. At Waycross and the Savannah airport, MeteoStar shows sfc temp.'s near 34 and TD's near 26-27 giving wetbulbs of 31-32. If anything, those temp.'s are not cold enough if Charleston is accurate (25 with a TD of 18 to the north of the precip.) Wedging sets in thanks to a very cold 1050 high in the NE US in combo with a very far south weak but very wet Miller A (1014 mb crossing tip of S FL) with 850's near +4 C and the surface near freezing. Winds are quite brisk from the NNE, preventing any warming from the Atlantic unless very near the coast.

 

 With this being out 8 days, the details are largely just for entertainment. However, this weak Miller A for ~1/8-9 has been on at least the last four GFS runs in a row while a 1050ish Arctic high in the NE US has been shown on three runs in a row wedging in low level cold air into the SE. This is the kind of very rare setup that can cause winter storms deep into the SE. The odds of something similar to this verifying are quite low this far out but not zero of course. Next week could get mighty interesting in parts of the SE US if that very strong Arctic high really does come down into the US about as modeled. I'm not aware of the GFS having a bias toward too strong highs in the US although that doesn't mean that it doesn't have that bias. I have detected this bias with the Euro, however.

 

 I'm educatedly guessing (based on my research) that significant ZR occurs in Waycross only about once every few decades.

[Cold Rain]

Lol. Looking at the 18z gfs it did not look that bad. Keeps most of the bitter cold just north but a step in the right direction. More towards the Euro. Still a lot of time to iron out things.

Yep, big time winter storm implied on the 18z GFS. Beautifully placed and adequately strong HP, super suppressed Gulf system with plenty of room for the standard northern adjustment, and all within truncation. Who wants to start the thread?

Edit: ninja'd by Larry!

[pcbjr]

 A little later (say between 192 and 204 hours (late on 1/8) looks like a very rare ZR to me for Waycross into far north central FL. The ZR also extends northeastward to just west of Savannah.

 

I'm not seeing it, and would appreciate any clarification.

 

Looks more like plain old south Georgia north Florida rain, but I would LOVE to be 110% absolutely wrong.

 

 

 

[dsaur]

Has it happened in the last two winters? I know Larry or Steve will have some stats...

I had an 18, a 19, and a bunch of low twenties.  Four to 6... 20 to 23.. last winter.  It always gets cold no matter how hot it seems to people.  Now the airport weather..that's something else.  Fortunately the airport's weather has little to nothing to do with what actually happens around town, lol.  Just as our weather will have little or nothing to do with what the models are telling us it will do.  Best just be patient and watch.  And if you live by models, only live 3 days out.  I'm fixing to get my third taste of rain in the 10 day dry spell Goofy told me I'd be getting, lol.  T

[GaWx]

I'm not seeing it, and would appreciate any clarification.

 

Looks more like plain old south Georgia north Florida rain, but I would LOVE to be 110% absolutely wrong.

 

 

 

 No problem.

 

1. Check the next map (204), when it is colder and wetter. At hour 204 (1 AM on 1/9), the 32 F line goes much further south (from a small part of far north-central FL to near Waycross to near Savannah with precip. further north just into that sub 32 air and still falling. The temperature drop appears to be due to a combo of evaporative cooling and colder air wedging down from the NE.

 

2. Gainseville is a bit warmer per MeteoStar (41 F).

[dsaur]

 That looks like a big mess and would probably be pretty historic if it were to verify as modeled!  A little later (say between 192 and 204 hours (late on 1/8) looks like a very rare ZR to me for Waycross into far north central FL. The ZR also extends northeastward to just west of Savannah. At Waycross and the Savannah airport, MeteoStar shows sfc temp.'s near 34 and TD's near 26-27 giving wetbulbs of 31-32. If anything, those temp.'s are not cold enough if Charleston is accurate (25 with a TD of 18 to the north of the precip.) Wedging sets in thanks to a very cold 1050 high in the NE US in combo with a very far south weak but very wet Miller A (1014 mb crossing tip of S FL) with 850's near +4 C and the surface near freezing. Winds are quite brisk from the NNE, preventing any warming from the Atlantic unless very near the coast.

 

 With this being out 8 days, the details are largely just for entertainment. However, this weak Miller A for ~1/8-9 has been on at least the last four GFS runs in a row while a 1050ish Arctic high in the NE US has been shown on three runs in a row wedging in low level cold air into the SE. This is the kind of very rare setup that can cause winter storms deep into the SE. The odds of something similar to this verifying are quite low this far out but not zero of course. Next week could get mighty interesting in parts of the SE US if that very strong Arctic high really does come down into the US about as modeled. I'm not aware of the GFS having a bias toward too strong highs in the US although that doesn't mean that it doesn't have that bias. I have detected this bias with the Euro, however.

 

 I'm educatedly guessing (based on my research) that significant ZR occurs in Waycross only about once every few decades.

This setup does seem to smell of zrain, doesn't it?  Highs that are strong, but going to cads.  Rain hanging around close by.  Big blasts that go bust, or modify.  I've been in the low 40's for days, had some sprinkles last night.  Haven't seen the sun for more than a minute or two since early in the weekend.  Wouldn't surprise me at all to see something across the middle and to the south   Anyway, I promised Metalboy something frozen, might as well be zrain, lol.  Tony

[pcbjr]

 No problem.

 

1. Check the next map (204), when it is colder and wetter. At hour 204 (1 AM on 1/9), the 32 F line goes much further south (from a small part of far north-central FL to near Waycross to near Savannah with precip. further north just into that sub 32 air and still falling. The temperature drop appears to be due to a combo of evaporative cooling and colder air wedging down from the NE.

 

2. Gainseville is a bit warmer per MeteoStar (41 F).

 

Got it.

 

Was focused on the prior panel.

 

Thanks!

 

The freezing line seems to stop at the Welcome Center on I-75.