Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro further west with the Jan 5-6 storm. The cold punch is more tempered with the -20C just making it into NC it looks at 168. Fits the pattern. So much for the shifting east of the storm track through the winter theory. Now, we can effectively see the first two weeks of January and no real threats anywhere on the horizon. One month down, two to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This run would have Charlotte at 30-32 for the high. Not that impressive at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Still, this Euro is pretty darn cold in ATL, a high below freezing and lows in the teens. Colder than in quite a few years if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yeah 1 or 2 runs of record cold, then we only get 1 or 2 days below normal, then rain. As mentioned , this pattern seems stable and locked in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Still, this Euro is pretty darn cold in ATL, a high below freezing and lows in the teens. Colder than in quite a few years if it holds. I agree...ya, it doesn't show the extreme cold, but near freezing during the day and near 18 at night is pretty cold down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Even with cold air this pattern is just not conducive for winter weather. What I wouldn't give for -NAO for a sustained period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Bastardi reiterated this morning the predominant pattern this winter would not favor SE snows. He mentioned he has seen nothing to deviate from that general pattern outlook. Our best hope is to take what we can get in NC from any upslope snow, but even that is hard to come by as we get into the last 2 weeks of the core of winter this year. I am not convinced there is anything on the immediate horizon to provide any blocking to slow this pattern down and give us a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Bastardi reiterated this morning the predominant pattern this winter would not favor SE snows. He mentioned he has seen nothing to deviate from that general pattern outlook. Our best hope is to take what we can get in NC from any upslope snow, but even that is hard to come by as we get into the last 2 weeks of the core of winter this year. When has bastardi ever favored a winter pattern in the SE? You're a fool if you pay for that mans words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The euro has been the extreme model for a few years now. No surprise here. Heading towards another epic euro fail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I agree...ya, it doesn't show the extreme cold, but near freezing during the day and near 18 at night is pretty cold down here. I've already hit 18 once this winter. 18 is not impressive at all for Atlanta. Heck that's only like 10-12 degrees below normal. We've had lows this winter 30 degrees above normal on at least two occasions. Funny how it's almost impossible to get lows 30 degrees BELOW normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Agree that this looks reasonable at this point with the cold shot. Amazing how Euro goes from high latitude and east Pacific ridging at the beginning of the run to +EPO/+AO toward the end...the wheels come off and it's a complete pattern reshuffle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 When has bastardi ever favored a winter pattern in the SE? You're a fool if you pay for that mans words. Until I see a real man's (or woman's ) -NAO come to fruition, I can't fight his words right now. 50/50 lows or bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 When has bastardi ever favored a winter pattern in the SE? You're a fool if you pay for that mans words.Hmmm... He's spot on with the pattern and that's good enough for us that have business that can be impacted by winter storm related outages.I know what Bastardi is saying is not what one wants to hear. And yes, when it is our time for a true winter storm, Bastardi will be beating our drum just as he has in the past. Keep in mind his commercial clients and the energy markets pay his bills. It also helps the camraderie of our board to attack the idea, and not the poster. I am wise and blessed with intelligence and the fortitude to continually read, study and learn. I am not a fool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Fits the pattern. So much for the shifting east of the storm track through the winter theory. Now, we can effectively see the first two weeks of January and no real threats anywhere on the horizon. One month down, two to go. Yeah, my confidence for this winter is going down, down, down. We are seriously in the worst tease pattern I can think of. Cool, cool, warm/wet, COLD!, cool, cool, warm/wet COLD, repeat. The atlantic and the storm track of the pattern make it so it's about meteorologically impossible to get both cold and moisture together in the SE at the same time. If this pattern continues, I have no doubt CLT will have no measure snowfall this year. I think our only hope is a reversal and a nice big -NAO in February. Until then, nothin. Very weenie-like but I can't help it. The pattern has shown its hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Bastardi reiterated this morning the predominant pattern this winter would not favor SE snows. He mentioned he has seen nothing to deviate from that general pattern outlook. Our best hope is to take what we can get in NC from any upslope snow, but even that is hard to come by as we get into the last 2 weeks of the core of winter this year. I am not convinced there is anything on the immediate horizon to provide any blocking to slow this pattern down and give us a winter storm. I am almost positive his outlook had cold centered over the Oh Valley, down through the TN valley, and he had 130% of normal snowfall for all of TN and much of NC. Anyone have the maps he put out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The 12z Op ridge out west is taller/deeper and more west over western Canada which would make sense to me that the 12z OP is correcting the trough more west for that. Ridge out west tends to hold serve longer given same time period. Definitely doesn't get as cold but the extreme cold is still on the table IMO just like anything else this far out. It will be interesting to see the euro eps mean & position of trough axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Lack of southern stream still a major problem. Very hard to rely on northern stream with a very weak pna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 No, it doesn't, especially not at KATL. We have had MANY winters, the majority actually, where our coldest lows are in the 20's. And a high below freezing for a day probably only happens once every 2 to 3 years.im going to have to agree with snowstorm for once and I think that down sloping has a lot to do with this. I personally expect at least a couple or more nights in the teens every winter and a day or two around freezing. Being in the NW part of the state helps with cold advection as well as my elevation as I can avoid down sloping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hmmm... He's spot on with the pattern and that's good enough for us that have business that can be impacted by winter storm related outages. I know what Bastardi is saying is not what one wants to hear. And yes, when it is our time for a true winter storm, Bastardi will be beating our drum just as he has in the past. Keep in mind his commercial clients and the energy markets pay his bills. I do keep that in mind. That only makes him that much more biased ii the cold direction for the E US since cold means higher energy prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 No, it doesn't, especially not at KATL. We have had MANY winters, the majority actually, where our coldest lows are in the 20's. And a high below freezing for a day probably only happens once every 2 to 3 years. I lived in Paulding County for 9 years, just west of Marietta and Kennesaw, and that western ridge from Carrollton all the way over to Cumming had 2-5 days below the freezing mark every year that I lived there. The winters of 2010 and 2011 I think I had recorded 5 or 6 days where I lived that didn't even reach the 30 degree mark. Not to mention it drops in the teens several times throughout the winter, not even necessarily during an artic outbreak. Carrollton and Newnan were the definite coldest spots for radiational cooling in the Atlanta metropolitan area. The areas with the coldest high temperatures were definitely Dallas, Kennesaw, and Woodstock. There are so many days where I would record a high of 35F with cloudy skys and a wind out of the NW at 20 mph, and it could be sunny and 48F in Athens. I don't have an exact number, but the time I lived out there, we averaged at least 15 days a year with highs not reaching 40F, at least that many. It has been an adjustment living here in Columbia, SC. To me, Columbia's climate is more similar to Jacksonville, FL than even the upstate of SC only 80 miles away. I used to think it was the Appalachians that blocked the cold air from this area, but when Greenville and Charlotte are consistantly 5-10 degrees cooler, there is some other type of geographic phenomenon going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hmmm... He's spot on with the pattern and that's good enough for us that have business that can be impacted by winter storm related outages. I know what Bastardi is saying is not what one wants to hear. And yes, when it is our time for a true winter storm, Bastardi will be beating our drum just as he has in the past. Keep in mind his commercial clients and the energy markets pay his bills. yea nobody likes it when he is right. Check out his winter forecast I believe you will see he has been spot on. Wish casting does not provide wintry weather. He said on Saturday Dallas to DC on this storm give or take a few miles and points North. He also spotted this pattern back in late November. He says now a brief warm up then cold coming back middle to end of month so I guess we shall see. No he is not always right and hypes alot but when he is there is no denying. He has said before winter storms would be to our west and last I looked they have. I don't have to be a met to know unless we have blocking you can just about forget anything besides a flurry unless you lucky. So back to the cold dry air coming. Good post William. Truth hurts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I love how people are bitching about how teens are something that are always common in GA. Ok, um...4 to 5 times a year is certainly not common and not normal. Would I love to see 30 degrees below normal 1 day or a few days...SURE, but I didn't think we would see the ult cold that euro was spitting out. Is it a Shi**y model cuz it changed? um no....its HAS struggled this year because it is NOT a great (good yes!, but great all the time NO) model with progressive patterns. GFS is just as Shi**y, but does better with progression because its a progressive model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I thought he updated the temps some time ago to 6 below for Jan Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I love how people are bitching about how teens are something that are always common in GA. Ok, um...4 to 5 times a year is certainly not common and not normal. Would I love to see 30 degrees below normal 1 day or a few days...SURE, but I didn't think we would see the ult cold that euro was spitting out. Is it a Shi**y model cuz it changed? um no....its HAS struggled this year because it is NOT a great (good yes!, but great all the time NO) model with progressive patterns. GFS is just as Shi**y, but does better with progression because its a progressive model. Do you think the euro flipped on the cold this run because of the difference in snow pack? People were talking about how the euro has a bias for dealing with melting and 2m temps and since the snow pack is dramatically less on this run it could be a player? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 and JB (wxbell) has done the best with there maps so far this winter. He has missed a few times, which he admits, but he had done pretty good. You have to learn to filter out the noise he puts out at times. Funny thing is, his energy clients do pay the bills. They are probably centered in the NE, so he caters to them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Do you think the euro flipped on the cold this run because of the difference in snow pack? People were talking about how the euro has a bias for dealing with melting and 2m temps and since the snow pack is dramatically less on this run it could be a player? I honestly am not sure. I think part of it that there is soooo much energy flying around, it can take a few little things to make a big difference on the map. I like this run, I would say its more believable than the gFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I thought he updated the temps some time ago to 6 below for Jan Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk might have been. I will have to go back and look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 you folks take care......guess i will check back in next nov or dec since this winter is already DONE.....TY each and every one of you for your clear ability to see the future, without your help i would have foolishly thought winter doesnt end until march. The best chances for snow are the meteorlogical winter months Dec-Feb, people keep harping that winter has only just started, but snow chances in the south drop drastically after February. The freak storms that can happen in March are the only reason cities show any type of average snowfall for the month. Atlanta probably has measurable snowfall one out of every eight Marches or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Interesting and educational Stratospheric Warming Article published by Capital Weather Gang http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/12/31/sudden-stratospheric-warming-could-it-lead-to-a-very-cold-january-in-d-c/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The best chances for snow are the meteorlogical winter months Dec-Feb, people keep harping that winter has only just started, but snow chances in the south drop drastically after February. The freak storms that can happen in March are the only reason cities show any type of average snowfall for the month. Atlanta probably has measurable snowfall one out of every eight Marches or something like that.stats show March snowfall averages are higher than dec. Pick a se city and its the same in almost all, including Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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