Tacoma Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 No doubt, what we have is the Blizzard of 93 combined with the cold outbreak of 1985; its on the way I wish you were right. would be worth waiting on these last two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't have access to EURO maps, but I'm trying to follow...is there a SE storm on the EURO day 7 or is it just a dry cold outbreak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't have access to EURO maps, but I'm trying to follow...is there a SE storm on the EURO day 7 or is it just a dry cold outbreak? No SE storm, sir. A nice Miller A bombing Apps runner though. It will be different in just under 4 hours anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro control actually changes over a chunk of NC and SC on day 6-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro control actually changes over a chunk of NC and SC on day 6-7. That would be awesome. But do you think that's got anything to do with it having lower resolution than the Op? How does it look through the end of the run pattern-wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That would be awesome. But do you think that's got anything to do with it having lower resolution than the Op? How does it look through the end of the run pattern-wise? The OP run wasn't too far off last night and has a nice little thump for sections of WNC and ETN. It also had some moisture associated with that artic front that makes it's way into NC. Of course it's not enough to really show up as anything measurable but there is some light green stuff there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I will say this, I have been following this time period closely and the Euro has been rock solid in portraying a significant event this far out. It has trended the "event" for the 6th and 7th further south and east over the last 3-4 runs.......... and reeled it in timewise from 180 to 144ish. With that said, who knows if it will be right? I have seen it be consistent for 4 days (remember 2009) with support from other globals and end up horribly wrong once the energy in question made it out of the data sparse areas and into better sampled areas. At least the trend is there, and with that much arctic air projected to come into any storm that develops...............anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The OP run wasn't too far off last night and has a nice little thump for sections of WNC and ETN. It also had some moisture associated with that artic front that makes it's way into NC. Of course it's not enough to really show up as anything measurable but there is some light green stuff there. Thanks Burger. Did you get a chance to see the control or the ENS out in the LR? How are they looking? The CFS is consistently showing Jan cold in the east, although dry. The Operationals look better than they did a few days ago too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That would be awesome. But do you think that's got anything to do with it having lower resolution than the Op? How does it look through the end of the run pattern-wise? Honestly, the LR isnt my strongest suit so I leave that to people who know better than I do. Looks like even the OP drops anywhere from half an inch to an inch of snow before the cold wave comes in. If we get any snowcover at all, we could set all time records(IF the euro verifies). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Honestly, the LR isnt my strongest suit so I leave that to people who know better than I do. Looks like even the OP drops anywhere from half an inch to an inch of snow before the cold wave comes in. If we get any snowcover at all, we could set all time records(IF the euro verifies). Good deal. Thanks man. It would be nice to see some snow, even if it's just a few token flakes. Like you said, it would certainly help the efficiency of the arctic air transport to have some snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Indices today look a little better: AO - Currently negative. Looks to trend towards neutral or may be stay slightly negative PNA - Currently positive. Looks to trend towards lightly positve of maybe neutral. NAO - Currently negative. Looks to trend towards positve with a late trend back to neutral. What I see is a lot of neutral looks....BUT better than yesterday. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Thanks Burger. Did you get a chance to see the control or the ENS out in the LR? How are they looking? The CFS is consistently showing Jan cold in the east, although dry. The Operationals look better than they did a few days ago too. Not Burger, but I don't care to answer this. After the cold dump of air, the trough retreats after hour 200ish, and the next dump of cold is out west, warming the SE quite a bit. At the end of the run (360) it looks like another trough is trying to move in, albeit slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Not Burger, but I don't care to answer this. After the cold dump of air, the trough retreats after hour 200ish, and the next dump of cold is out west, warming the SE quite a bit. At the end of the run (360) it looks like another trough is trying to move in, albeit slowly. Yuck. Is that the control or the ensemble mean? Hopefully, the mean keeps the trough in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yuck. Is that the control or the ensemble mean? Hopefully, the mean keeps the trough in the east. I think he is talking about the control. I'm not subscribing to AccuPro this winter so I don't have access to the control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yuck. Is that the control or the ensemble mean? Hopefully, the mean keeps the trough in the east. Sorry, having to work some today so I am in and out. That is the control run I was talking about, the ensembles also lift the trough out, but more slowly. Toward the end of the run, almost all of Canada is extremely cold and the 850s are around 2c for much of NC. It's certainly not a warm look and I see no hint of a SE ridge. Maybe a reload? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hard to believe we wouldn't get ice at some point with all the cold air to the north. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z GFS looks like it's starting to catch on to the extreme cold the Euro was showing. Not as extreme as the Euro but you've got some major arctic air spilling over from Canada @168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What I see on the overnight Euro Ensemble Mean is that it has the quick arctic cold shot early next week, then from days 9-15 the eastern U.S. has above normal heights. That matches the overnight superensemble as well. The 06z GFS Ensemble mean has more of an east Alaska / west coast ridge, with east coast trough look post day 9...along with the PV in northern Hudson Bay...that's been the persistent look that we've seen for a while now, one that provides glancing cold shots with a storm track to our northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z GFS looks like it's starting to catch on to the extreme cold the Euro was showing. Not as extreme as the Euro but you've got some major arctic air spilling over from Canada @168. holds nicely out to 186 too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Sorry, having to work some today so I am in and out. That is the control run I was talking about, the ensembles also lift the trough out, but more slowly. Toward the end of the run, almost all of Canada is extremely cold and the 850s are around 2c for much of NC. It's certainly not a warm look and I see no hint of a SE ridge. Maybe a reload? Yeah. Not a ridge-o-death and the model is trying to compensate for the deep trough moving out, the SE ridge is deep because of this and sustained on the mean but that's because it has no idea how to handle the next spill of cold. The control tries to spill in another cold spell by the 10th but it doesn't quite work out until the 15th. We also see a long drawn out trough over the west during this time period on the mean. I doubt that because of our cold spell that we coincidentally get locked into a warmer pattern. Doesn't make sense to me although FWIW some mets were honking towards a warm up like we saw in December after the cold November spell. We should have an inevitable brief warm up for a few days but it's likely we're in for another cold spell somewhere in the 10th to 15th day range. We likely won't know until we get into January and the models lock in on this cold better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z Canadian goes big again with the arctic blast, polar vortex into Lake Michigan...-23 deg C at 850mb in Atlanta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z Canadian goes big again with the arctic blast, polar vortex into Lake Michigan...-23 deg C at 850mb in Atlanta That's 2 C colder than the coldest on record (going back to ~1950) at ATL. Of course, it is the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't think there's any doubt that it will get cold - Euro, CMC and even the GFS (somewhat) are convinced. The safe bet for now would be somewhere between GFS and Euro. I could be wrong, but a little warmer version of the CMC might be the better temp guidance as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Early on out to 120 it looks like the Euro isn't going to be as cold. It's moderated a little more and keeping it more bottled up in the north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Early on out to 120 it looks like the Euro isn't going to be as cold. It's moderated a little more and keeping it more bottled up in the north and west. Any storm coming out of the southern stream at that time like 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Any storm coming out of the southern stream at that time like 0z? Similar to 00z but just shifted NE with everything in regards to moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Any storm coming out of the southern stream at that time like 0z? It tracks NE through Arkansas, this will end up being a nice winter storm for KS/MO, again. This pattern is just going in cycles, NE than cUS than NE and now cUS again. Does have light snow for TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro further west with the Jan 5-6 storm. The cold punch is more tempered with the -20C just making it into NC it looks at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro further west with the Jan 5-6 storm. The cold punch is more tempered with the -20C just making it into NC it looks at 168. Yeah, surface temps responded too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 IMO this seems more realistic...I am not saying its correct and the extreme solution is wrong, but this seems more plausible.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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