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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II


buckeyefan1

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That would be awesome. But do you think that's got anything to do with it having lower resolution than the Op? How does it look through the end of the run pattern-wise?

 

The OP run wasn't too far off last night and has a nice little thump for sections of WNC and ETN. It also had some moisture associated with that artic front that makes it's way into NC. Of course it's not enough to really show up as anything measurable but there is some light green stuff there. 

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I will say this, I have been following this time period closely and the Euro has been rock solid in portraying a significant event this far out.  It has trended the "event" for the 6th and 7th further south and east over the last 3-4 runs.......... and reeled it in timewise from 180 to 144ish. 

 

With that said, who knows if it will be right?  I have seen it be consistent for 4 days (remember 2009) with support from other globals and end up horribly wrong once the energy in question made it out of the data sparse areas and into better sampled areas.  At least the trend is there, and with that much arctic air projected to come into any storm that develops...............anything is possible.

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The OP run wasn't too far off last night and has a nice little thump for sections of WNC and ETN. It also had some moisture associated with that artic front that makes it's way into NC. Of course it's not enough to really show up as anything measurable but there is some light green stuff there.

Thanks Burger. Did you get a chance to see the control or the ENS out in the LR? How are they looking? The CFS is consistently showing Jan cold in the east, although dry. The Operationals look better than they did a few days ago too.

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That would be awesome. But do you think that's got anything to do with it having lower resolution than the Op? How does it look through the end of the run pattern-wise?

 

Honestly, the LR isnt my strongest suit so I leave that to people who know better than I do. 

 

Looks like even the OP drops anywhere from half an inch to an inch of snow before the cold wave comes in. If we get any snowcover at all, we could set all time records(IF the euro verifies).

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Honestly, the LR isnt my strongest suit so I leave that to people who know better than I do.

Looks like even the OP drops anywhere from half an inch to an inch of snow before the cold wave comes in. If we get any snowcover at all, we could set all time records(IF the euro verifies).

Good deal. Thanks man. It would be nice to see some snow, even if it's just a few token flakes. Like you said, it would certainly help the efficiency of the arctic air transport to have some snow cover.

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Indices today look a little better:

AO - Currently negative. Looks to trend towards neutral or may be stay slightly negative

PNA - Currently positive. Looks to trend towards lightly positve of maybe neutral.

NAO - Currently negative. Looks to trend towards positve with a late trend back to neutral.

 

What I see is a lot of neutral looks....BUT better than yesterday.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

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Thanks Burger. Did you get a chance to see the control or the ENS out in the LR? How are they looking? The CFS is consistently showing Jan cold in the east, although dry. The Operationals look better than they did a few days ago too.

Not Burger, but I don't care to answer this.  After the cold dump of air, the trough retreats after hour 200ish, and the next dump of cold is out west, warming the SE quite a bit.  At the end of the run (360) it looks like another trough is trying to move in, albeit slowly.

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Not Burger, but I don't care to answer this. After the cold dump of air, the trough retreats after hour 200ish, and the next dump of cold is out west, warming the SE quite a bit. At the end of the run (360) it looks like another trough is trying to move in, albeit slowly.

Yuck. Is that the control or the ensemble mean? Hopefully, the mean keeps the trough in the east.

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Yuck. Is that the control or the ensemble mean? Hopefully, the mean keeps the trough in the east.

Sorry, having to work some today so I am in and out. 

 

That is the control run I was talking about, the ensembles also lift the trough out, but more slowly.  Toward the end of the run, almost all of Canada is extremely cold and the 850s are around 2c for much of NC.  It's certainly not a warm look and I see no hint of a SE ridge.  Maybe a reload?

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What I see on the overnight Euro Ensemble Mean is that it has the quick arctic cold shot early next week, then from days 9-15 the eastern U.S. has above normal heights.  That matches the overnight superensemble as well.  The 06z GFS Ensemble mean has more of an east Alaska / west coast ridge, with east coast trough look post day 9...along with the PV in northern Hudson Bay...that's been the persistent look that we've seen for a while now, one that provides glancing cold shots with a storm track to our northwest.

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Sorry, having to work some today so I am in and out. 

 

That is the control run I was talking about, the ensembles also lift the trough out, but more slowly.  Toward the end of the run, almost all of Canada is extremely cold and the 850s are around 2c for much of NC.  It's certainly not a warm look and I see no hint of a SE ridge.  Maybe a reload?

Yeah. Not a ridge-o-death and the model is trying to compensate for the deep trough moving out, the SE ridge is deep because of this and sustained on the mean but that's because it has no idea how to handle the next spill of cold. The control tries to spill in another cold spell by the 10th but it doesn't quite work out until the 15th. We also see a long drawn out trough over the west during this time period on the mean. I doubt that because of our cold spell that we coincidentally get locked into a warmer pattern. Doesn't make sense to me although FWIW some mets were honking towards a warm up like we saw in December after the cold November spell.

 

We should have an inevitable brief warm up for a few days but it's likely we're in for another cold spell somewhere in the 10th to 15th day range. We likely won't know until we get into January and the models lock in on this cold better.

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I don't think there's any doubt that it will get cold - Euro, CMC and even the GFS (somewhat) are convinced. The safe bet for now would be somewhere between GFS and Euro.  I could be wrong, but a little warmer version of the CMC might be the better temp guidance as of right now.

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