DMADKAT Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This is sure one way to never forget the record temperature haha Yeah , You have heard that story many times I know. I left out a lot about how it happened, you notice. Arctic fronts happen here and there and we are really overdue for another one of these. Perhaps one like February 1899, like we read about in the farmers almanac. LOW SUNSPOT MINIMUM, and now 2 volcanic eruptions today. WOW ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Two volcanoes have erupted in the past 24 hours could these have any impact on our weather in the next few days or weeks? Im pretty sure but only time will tell. One in El Salvador the other in Europe. It depends if any of the ash made it to the stratosphere. The volcanoes can cause localized rain and lightning near the eruption site; however, if it stays in the troposphere, then there will be no affects across the globe. I am not sure if any of the ash made it to the stratosphere, but only in the stratosphere will there be major world wide impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Don't look now but @42 the NAM looks pretty close to the 12z GFS at 5h. Night and day vs. 18z NAM at same time frame. It's got that energy out west in SE Colorado...12z had it in SW CO. 18z NAM had it around Iowa. Might need to keep an eye on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It depends if any of the ash made it to the stratosphere. The volcanoes can cause localized rain and lightning near the eruption site; however, if it stays in the troposphere, then there will be no affects across the globe. I am not sure if any of the ash made it to the stratosphere, but only in the stratosphere will there be major world wide impact. San Migel-A new eruption began at the volcano this morning at 10:50 am local time. A strong vulcanian-type explosion produced an ash plume of unknown but considerable (several km) height. MT Etna Update Mon 30 Dec 10:56 The 21st paroxysm at the New SE crater which started last evening is still going on although it has decreased a bit. Until now, the eruption has been rather weak with no sustained tall lava fountains as during most of the paroxysms. Instead, the New SE crater continues to produce loud, spectacular near-continuous strombolian-type jets (or low, pulsating fountains) and explosions of lava bubbles. Etna is not explosive so no widespread climate effects there. More the bubbling and spewing type. San Migel is a bit more interesting but no reliable info currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Don't look now but @42 the NAM looks pretty close to the 12z GFS at 5h. Night and day vs. 18z NAM at same time frame. It's got that energy out west in SE Colorado...12z had it in SW CO. 18z NAM had it around Iowa. Might need to keep an eye on this.Not enough to save Mrs. Tamland, but changes afoot with the NAM. Just looking at the trend loop on the model center, pretty sig differences from past 3 runs at H5, most notable is the strength of the ridge up into the PAC NW, hanging more energy back over north central Mexico, and placement of initial northern stream vortmax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Not enough to save Mrs. Tamland, but changes afoot with the NAM. Just looking at the trend loop on the model center, pretty sig differences from past 3 runs at H5, most notable is the strength of the ridge up into the PAC NW, hanging more energy back over north central Mexico, and placement of initial northern stream vortmax. Yea countin' on a miracle as the Boss sang once. It is def. interesting how much the models have changed with this little parcel of energy that could. Looks like next week if the models don't suddenly flip might be the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yea countin' on a miracle as the Boss sang once. It is def. interesting how much the models have changed with this little parcel of energy that could. Looks like next week if the models don't suddenly flip might be the real deal. Even with the changes early on it still managed to come up with almost the exact h5 setup compared to 18z at 60 and 66 hrs, go figure. Window is quickly closing, new MH sled will be here tomorrow, itching to try it out, likely gonna have to wait a couple more weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hey look at that. The NAM give upstate, CLT and then on to WeatherNC's house with some light snow flizzards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I am reading estimated of around 5 km to 9 km which would not be high enough to make it to the stratosphere. The 9 km is close but I believe it would be just short of penetrating the tropopause. But, these are early reports and as always these can change. San Migel-A new eruption began at the volcano this morning at 10:50 am local time. A strong vulcanian-type explosion produced an ash plume of unknown but considerable (several km) height. MT Etna Update Mon 30 Dec 10:56 The 21st paroxysm at the New SE crater which started last evening is still going on although it has decreased a bit. Until now, the eruption has been rather weak with no sustained tall lava fountains as during most of the paroxysms. Instead, the New SE crater continues to produce loud, spectacular near-continuous strombolian-type jets (or low, pulsating fountains) and explosions of lava bubbles. Etna is not explosive so no widespread climate effects there. More the bubbling and spewing type. San Migel is a bit more interesting but no reliable info currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hey look at that. The NAM give upstate, CLT and then on to WeatherNC's house with some light snow flizzards. One thing this map illustrates is how cold it is goin to get. Dives right through most of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I want to believe in the EURO, and usually do, but it has been pretty bad this year. However, all the models are super struggling with there model outputs. That tells me at least 1 thing, pattern change. I DO think we see a very nice arctic shot by the beginning/mid next week. We shall see how cold it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GFS may** lay the hammer down this run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well, I spoke too soon, I think the GFS is having issues with driving that cold air down to slowly and getting it "caught" up NW of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I went to school through a lot of bitter outbreaks and don't remember school being closed just for cold. There always seemed to have snow or ice involved just enough to hamper things. 1994 had a pretty bad ice storm. We had bluebird skies with highs in the teens so the snow and ice didn't even melt with the sun. The ice on the driveway sublimated at the very bottom where a culvert ran through. We learned very quickly that sled tracks stop dead when the ice runs out. Kids today are pampered little pantywaists, lol. In the 60's when your sister and I were at Inman, we walked home no matter what the weather was. I remember in 8th grade I walked home in 6 degree weather...and liked it And, by the way, no airconditioning in grammer school or high school. If your teacher had some bucks she might buy a floor fan, but mostly it blew on her, lol. No window fans back then. And the windows were those crank windows that only open a foot or so up, and down. Yep, kids today wouldn't last a week in the 50's and 60's, lol. Wussies. Anyway, I got rain a while ago just didn't get the cold yet. As long as the rain keeps running by to the south, and its doesn't stop for the next two weeks, I'm going to get me some of the good stuff down here. I'll get a hit from this rollercoaster with cold coming down, and water underneath. That's all I want in winter, the players on the field...then we look for some timing. All the connections and indicies, and vortexes and negative this and that can't make the timing happen. Only the players on the field can do that. And I'm watching it all with great interest Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 00z Canadian lowers the hammer on the cold for early next week...drops the PV into the northern Great Lakes...but again, it's in and out with the cold retreating quickly. At coldest, -20 deg C line at 850mb runs from N Atlanta to south of Charlotte to Raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I would say that's accurate... I was thinking about how severe something like the 12z Euro would be for a lot of people. I would say 2/3rds of the people in this part of the world heat their homes with a Heat Pump or some sort of electrical unit. I would bet temps zero or below, people with a heat pump would be pretty much S.O.L. I know at my house our heating system has to work a little harder once you get into the teens for an extended period of time. I told Larry that the thing that saved Atl in the 73 ice storm was there was no big outbreak behind it. Had the city been that crippled, and then have something like the temps that came with the Blizzard, it would have been an epic disaster. As it was people in cul de sac's and high rise apt. were in a very, very bad way, and Atl. has only grown since then. And they aren't prepared for a two or three factor weather hit. No chainsaws, too many hills, no way to resupply most stores. There were some horror stories, with impassable streets and no power. There weren't even a million people there then, now you triple the disaster. And it's odd to me no one talks about what happens in Atlanta when the streets are impassible, the power is down for weeks, and you've got over 2 million to deal with. During the begining of SnoJam the downtown interstates got clogged up with traffic that couldn't move in the instant ice and snow, and folks left their cars in the middle of the interstates and walked out. No traffic could move on Eisenhour's arteries, from a few inches of snow. Imagine telephone poles and trees down in all the streets, everywhere, no chainsaws, and no power, and -3 for a week, and 3 to 5 inches of ice over it all. It'll happen one day, and no one is ready. The Blizzard was a very near miss. Had the heavy snow been from Macon north.... a whole different ball game. And it was March so no sustained cold. There have been some very near misses from a major swat. People in the south are too complacent...because the weather is so mild, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't know who mentioned the two volcanoes that went off but it takes about two weeks to circle the earth in a latitudinal fashion. It takes the particulates 1-2 months for a non cross-equator longitudinally flow. It will take 1-2 years to cross the equator. So in conclusion the volcanic effects wont have a direct immediate impact as in the next few days. Effects might be felt in about 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It looks like the Euro is about to drop the deep cold again...we'll see where it goes shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 0z again has a strong storm running along or just east of the Apps...984 mb low and deepening near Greensboro by 156, Euro still holding steady on arctic blast through that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 0z again has a strong storm running along or just east of the Apps...984 mb low and deepening near Greensboro by 156, Euro still holding steady on arctic blast through that point. Yep Euro holds serve to put most of the SE in the ice box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 0z again has a strong storm running along or just east of the Apps...984 mb low and deepening near Greensboro by 156, Euro still holding steady on arctic blast through that point. Looks like another superstorm. 1002mb low in north Alabama to 953mb low at NY/Canadian border...arctic air unleashes and collides with energy running down the Rockies into northern Mississippi...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The Euro drops Boone to -20F. Jesus. I'm sure it's way overdone, but wow. Nashville gets down to -16 and Atlanta to 5. Memphis and Huntsville get down below 0, as does Mt. Airy. Verbatim, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 High of 19 next Tues in Raleigh on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Tonight's Euro is really a big ticket item in a general sense for the Eastern US as that storm bombs out and again drives some wicked cold...could you imagine the weenie-ism going on if this were to trend towards a Eastern GOM storm and up the coastal plain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Tonight's Euro is really a big ticket item in a general sense for the Eastern US as that storm bombs out and again drives some wicked cold...could you imagine the weenie-ism going on if this were to trend towards a Eastern GOM storm and up the coastal plain? Ya some would probably be hyperventilating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ya some would probably hyperventilating. lol, no doubt...you think it's to early to start a specific thread? j/k! (sorry but I had to go there) Anyway... Our Big Ticket cold ultimately helps the Southeast because sure enough, a day or two after the coldest of air arrives, the Southern Pipeline re-opens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't think I'm exaggerating too much if I say tonight's 00z Euro for the D6-7 storm reminded me of March 1993, am I? The track is a little further west and it's certainly not a carbon copy, but it's pretty wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 0z ECMWF Continued I M P R E S S I V E The maps from tonight are being saved for archiving and for verification next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't think I'm exaggerating too much if I say tonight's 00z Euro for the D6-7 storm reminded me of March 1993, am I? The track is a little further west and it's certainly not a carbon copy, but it's pretty wild. No doubt, what we have is the Blizzard of 93 combined with the cold outbreak of 1985; its on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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