pcbjr Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 CPC looks to be keeping the cold core north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 CPC looks to be keeping the cold core north. 610temp.new.gif Yeah, that looks much more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 We're getting in the neighborhood of all-time record cold for the state of North Carolina... (-34 on Mt Mitchell, Jan 1985) Yep of the Euro verified that would be historic. I remember family telling me that year in 1985 that if you shut your car off the gas would freeze up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yep of the Euro verified that would be historic. I remember family telling me that year in 1985 that if you shut your car off the gas would freeze up. I would say that's accurate... I was thinking about how severe something like the 12z Euro would be for a lot of people. I would say 2/3rds of the people in this part of the world heat their homes with a Heat Pump or some sort of electrical unit. I would bet temps zero or below, people with a heat pump would be pretty much S.O.L. I know at my house our heating system has to work a little harder once you get into the teens for an extended period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yeah, in those conditions, a heat pump is a little better than being outside naked, but that's about it. I've got a fireplace, so that would help a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I would say that's accurate... I was thinking about how severe something like the 12z Euro would be for a lot of people. I would say 2/3rds of the people in this part of the world heat their homes with a Heat Pump or some sort of electrical unit. I would bet temps zero or below, people with a heat pump would be pretty much S.O.L. I know at my house our heating system has to work a little harder once you get into the teens for an extended period of time. Ya that type of cold would be very harsh. A shock to the system would be an understatement. Might also effect the power grid here with that type of cold. Yeah, in those conditions, a heat pump is a little better than being outside naked, but that's about it. I've got a fireplace, so that would help a little bit. Ya we have a wood stove and boy does that thing pump out the heat. Would be ok to cook on also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yes, but with those 850's, I think they would support those very cold 2 meter temp.'s. The Q in my mind is whether or not those 850's will actually occur. I think the odds are very low since it is such an extreme scenario. It has KATL down to a record tying -21C at 850 for example!! 850 mb records go back to ~1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GSP seems rather skeptical at this point. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...AS OF 2 PM...THE MEDIUM RANGE TODAY OFFERS YET ANOTHER LESSON ON HOWIT IS BEST TO NOT PUT TOO MUCH STOCK IN LOW CONFIDENCE FORECASTS INWINTERTIME...AS ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THEMODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND DAY5. THE FORECAST IS PATTERNED AFTER WPCGUIDANCE AND THE NEW ECMWF. THE FIRST PROBLEM CROPS UP SATURDAYNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...THE FCST LAYS OFF THE 12Z RUN OFTHE GFS...AT LEAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHEN THAT MODELHAS POOR CONTINUITY AND APPEARS TOO DRY. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN UPPERTROF DROPPING DOWN OVER THE PLAINS...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNBEGINNING BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. A SMALL POP IS KEPT IN THE FCST FORSUNDAY MORNING MAINLY OUT OF CONTINUITY WITH THE OLD FCST. WARMADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS WOULD PRECLUDE THIS PRECIP FROM FALLING ASSNOW. IF THE LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPS...IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OFLIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON THE SURFACETEMPS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THEP-TYPE SHOULD BE ALL RAIN BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY AS TEMPS CLIMB...THAT IS IF PRECIP EVEN DEVELOPS BEFORE MIDDAY SUNDAY.FROM THAT POINT ONWARD...THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF LOOKS REALLY FAROUT THERE WITH A DEEP POLAR VORTEX DROPPING DOWN OVER THE MIDWESTSUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS BRINGS A VERY DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE OVERTHE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DEEPENING MILLER-A TYPE LOW MOVINGRIGHT OVER THE FCST AREA. PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN AS THECOLDER AIR IS KEPT ON THE W SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH SUNDAYEVENING...BUT PRECIP WOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE MTNS AFTERSUNSET. THE TIMING...SCOPE...AND DEPTH OF THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT ISHIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON FOR THE MTNS AS ITWOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHERTERRAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE FCST REFLECTS A WEAKERVERSION OF THIS SCENARIO...RATHER THAN THE GFS WHICH HAS PRACTICALLYNOTHING. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ARE ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ANDFOR NOW REFLECT A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yes, but with those 850's, I think they would support those very cold 2 meter temp.'s. The Q in my mind is whether or not those 850's will actually occur. I think the odds are very low since it is such an extreme scenario. It has KATL down to a record tying -21C at 850 for example!! 850 mb records go back to ~1950. Odds are against this type of cold for sure and it's obvious when you look at the max highs/lows for GSO, the OP is an extreme outlier here, however it's also apparent that there are even more extreme outliers with individual mean members. Boone for instance is below zero in almost half the members in this time period. It will be interesting to see further runs of both the Euro and the GFS from here on out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Fwiw our local ch 4- NBC guy just was showing some excitement for a Sunday event! He touched on it yesterday, and was pretty excited today saying high totals for the mountains and will spill out into piedmont, has to be watched closely. I think he's one of the better mets we have on our local channels since Andy left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Fwiw our local ch 4- NBC guy just was showing some excitement for a Sunday event! He touched on it yesterday, and was pretty excited today saying high totals for the mountains and will spill out into piedmont, has to be watched closely. I think he's one of the better mets we have on our local channels since Andy left. I noticed that...that was Chris filling in for John Cessarich tonight, John usually is a bit more conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 For my area her in upstate this is my point and click from NWS.... Sunday A chance of rain or freezing rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 50. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Sunday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Monday A chance of rain and snow. Mostly sunny, with a high near 50. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 KGSP Weekly Briefing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 18z gfs looked like a weenie run till the end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 18z gfs looked like a weenie run till the end! Yes it did! Cold and plenty of storm threats. Even had good blocking showing up there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I believe it was 1994 we were working on a job when highs were 11-18 degrees that week with blue skies, sunshine and no snow on ground or in sight There were big arctic outbreaks with highs in the teens in Feb of 94 and 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flotownsc Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Two volcanoes have erupted in the past 24 hours could these have any impact on our weather in the next few days or weeks? Im pretty sure but only time will tell. One in El Salvador the other in Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I was in Raleigh in 1985 and there was a little snow on the ground; low of -9 F at RDU. I would guess less than an inch; no idea what it was like in the mountains other than extremely cold. Believe it or not I rode my bicycle to class that morning and crashed on some ice. I was in Wake Forest at the time. Unfortunately I don't remember a thing being less than a year old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I was in Raleigh in 1985 and there was a little snow on the ground; low of -9 F at RDU. I would guess less than an inch; no idea what it was like in the mountains other than extremely cold. Believe it or not I rode my bicycle to class that morning and crashed on some ice. I know Raleigh is up near the arctic so you guys are used to the cold, but here in the south there's no way any schools or colleges would be open if it were -9 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I know Raleigh is up near the arctic so you guys are used to the cold, but here in the south there's no way any schools or colleges would be open if it were -9 degrees. I went to school through a lot of bitter outbreaks and don't remember school being closed just for cold. There always seemed to have snow or ice involved just enough to hamper things. 1994 had a pretty bad ice storm. We had bluebird skies with highs in the teens so the snow and ice didn't even melt with the sun. The ice on the driveway sublimated at the very bottom where a culvert ran through. We learned very quickly that sled tracks stop dead when the ice runs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Folks, 1983 and 1985 were both brutal, even down here. So was 1989. But any reason to even remotely suspect a repeat? We're looking at one model outlier unless something has changed .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I was in high school at the time living down east, It was brown ground but the ponds, lakes, creeks everything froze solid, even both of the sounds. Ya just goes to show you that you dont need snow pack to get those types of temps especially if a lob of the PV drops down into the country. Not saying it will or wont but I though that year was very cold but not much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Folks, 1983 and 1985 were both brutal, even down here. So was 1989. But any reason to even remotely suspect a repeat? We're looking at one model outlier unless something has changed .... I think most are reminiscing about that year. Still impressive what the Euro is throwing out. Whether is will or won't happen i still to be seen but saying a zero chance it will verify is a mistake in weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Not saying 0 chance - but .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Not saying 0 chance - but .... Some have said that but ya the solution is to extreme but I could see us having a monster cold outbreak though with this system. The Euro has been very consistent with this the last 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 RAH is not onboard with any cold weather for the first part of next week and has Monday as sunny with a high of 56. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Wave the flag! 18z gefs look much colder thru day 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Wave the flag! 18z gefs look much colder thru day 16. Yeah, I think the models are beginning to catch on to what's in store for us. I don't believe we will rival the record cold of 1985, but I could see the daily records being threatened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMADKAT Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I was in Wake Forest at the time. Unfortunately I don't remember a thing being less than a year old. Yeah I was 23 years old at that time, and crashed both my cars in one accident . My first car, which I sold to a friend, and he had it parked in the street as I plunged into it with my car. It was 4 inches of snow on the streets, and it was 3 below zero that morning. This was the coldest night in Norfolk Virginia's history (January 22, 1985) since 1871, when records began here. I remember that arctic outbreak well, believe me ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This is sure one way to never forget the record temperature haha Yeah I was 23 years old at that time, and crashed both my cars in one accident . My first car, which I sold to a friend, and he had it parked in the street as I plunged into it with my car. It was 4 inches of snow on the streets, and it was 3 below zero that morning. This was the coldest night in Norfolk Virginia's history (January 22, 1985) since 1871, when records began here. I remember that arctic outbreak well, believe me ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.