GaWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 18z gfs is not as cold for the 2/12 storm therefore a big ole rainstorm for NC/SC/Ga. Edit: Looks like the high to the north is not as strong and the track of the sfc low is a little further west but there will be a lot of changes in upcoming runs. Indeed, the 18Z GFS is the first of the last eight (at least) GFS runs essentially not showing any sig. wintry precip. for anyone in the SE US verbatim within 2/11-13. As mentioned/suggested, the high is weaker and the CAD isn't as impressive. We'll soon start to figure out if this is a new trend or if it is a hiccup. I don't think that it is common for a sfc low to head right over ATL into the CAD as occurs on the 18Z GFS. It may even be rare for all I know. So, this could very well be a hiccup. The last three Euro runs have had sig. wintry precip., mainly in NC. So, it is certainly not yet time to throw in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This may be like that little disturbance that passed through Thanksgiving eve! Probably so. It is coming out of the same area through TX into the SE. Latest rap trends seem to hold the vorticity together pretty well. Where as with the others seems to fade away into a weaker system. But over the next 12 hours precip should expand more across TX and see where it goes from there. But there is decent moisture over NM,TX atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GAdawg Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 For the GA folks from the 12Z Canadian... Thanks for the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Indeed, the 18Z GFS is the first of the last eight (at least) GFS runs essentially not showing any sig. wintry precip. for anyone in the SE US verbatim within 2/11-13. As mentioned/suggested, the high is weaker and the CAD isn't as impressive. We'll soon start to figure out if this is a new trend or if it is a hiccup. I don't think that it is common for a sfc low to head right over ATL into the CAD as occurs on the 18Z GFS. It may even be rare for all I know. So, this could very well be a hiccup. The last three Euro runs have had sig. wintry precip., mainly in NC. So, it is certainly not yet time to throw in the towel. Folks, Well, after examining MeteoStar output for the 18z GFS, I feel I need to backtrack somewhat on what I said earlier. Whereas I said that this run was the first GFS run of the last eight not showing significant wintry precip. for anywhere in the SE within 2/11-13, an examination of GSO (near Superjames' stomping grounds) reveals to me that they actually do get a decent amount of ZR. Any comments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I'm surprised there is no mention of the latest model runs for THIS Saturday in NC. The moisture is trending MUCH HIGHER for interior parts of NC which could lead to a bit of winter weather (mainly NW NC right now). In fact the 15z SREF really dumps a lot of moisture across the entire SE. Most of it is a very cold rain, but some areas could get lucky on the northern and northwest fringes!! This latest winter pattern reminds me a lot of the epic Jan 2000 ( I think) snowfall for CLT, RAH, GSO, etc. Everybody was focused on another shortwave when the actual storm developed "out of no where." Now, I'm not suggesting another repeat, but sometimes we need to focus on what's in front of our face instead of what we can't see yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I'm surprised there is no mention of the latest model runs for THIS Saturday in NC. The moisture is trending MUCH HIGHER for interior parts of NC which could lead to a bit of winter weather (mainly NW NC right now). In fact the 15z SREF really dumps a lot of moisture across the entire SE. Most of it is a very cold rain, but some areas could get lucky on the northern and northwest fringes!! This latest winter pattern reminds me a lot of the epic Jan 2000 ( I think) snowfall for CLT, RAH, GSO, etc. Everybody was focused on another shortwave when the actual storm developed "out of no where." Now, I'm not suggesting another repeat, but sometimes we need to focus on what's in front of our face instead of what we can't see yet. JK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidyr2k Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I'm surprised there is no mention of the latest model runs for THIS Saturday in NC. The moisture is trending MUCH HIGHER for interior parts of NC which could lead to a bit of winter weather (mainly NW NC right now). In fact the 15z SREF really dumps a lot of moisture across the entire SE. Most of it is a very cold rain, but some areas could get lucky on the northern and northwest fringes!! This latest winter pattern reminds me a lot of the epic Jan 2000 ( I think) snowfall for CLT, RAH, GSO, etc. Everybody was focused on another shortwave when the actual storm developed "out of no where." Now, I'm not suggesting another repeat, but sometimes we need to focus on what's in front of our face instead of what we can't see yet. Oooooo....The Carolina Crusher! Brick will have a hissy fit if it even comes close to that one. Thanx for pointing this out! (fingers crossed) If Fischel suggests a dusting for Saturday around here....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Oooooo....The Carolina Crusher! Brick will have a hissy fit if it even comes close to that one. Thanx for pointing this out! (fingers crossed) Strong thunderstorms along the gulf coast FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 This latest winter pattern reminds me a lot of the epic Jan 2000 ( I think) snowfall for CLT, RAH, GSO, etc. Everybody was focused on another shortwave when the actual storm developed "out of no where." Just like the time back in May 162,000,000 BC when everyone was looking at the T-Rex and an Apatosaurus came "out of nowhere" and squashed them flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epps88 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Interesting setup in the coming days for va and nc. Hopefully its almost our turn for good snows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I'm surprised there is no mention of the latest model runs for THIS Saturday in NC. The moisture is trending MUCH HIGHER for interior parts of NC which could lead to a bit of winter weather (mainly NW NC right now). In fact the 15z SREF really dumps a lot of moisture across the entire SE. Most of it is a very cold rain, but some areas could get lucky on the northern and northwest fringes!! This latest winter pattern reminds me a lot of the epic Jan 2000 ( I think) snowfall for CLT, RAH, GSO, etc. Everybody was focused on another shortwave when the actual storm developed "out of no where." Now, I'm not suggesting another repeat, but sometimes we need to focus on what's in front of our face instead of what we can't see yet. I mentioned it a couple if days ago.....i hope someone over that way scores. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Looks like the 18z NAM was just screwing with us. 00z is wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Strong thunderstorms along the gulf coast FTW? Strong thunderstorms along the gulf coast FTW? You got me to look at radar. No thunderstorms from a stationary arctic front draped across the GOM shoreline like in 2000. Remember a shortwave minor event came through 48 hours before the crusher putting down about .15 mostly freezing rain. Cold air was in place and another northern stream shortwave dropped into the leftover front and that's what set off the fireworks. However looking at radar and seeing the snow flying back in TX, OK, NM looks like the old days pre internet/model access. When you would see that depiction you would perk up. Has that look tonight and it's been a long time since I've seen it. Definitely first time this year that I can recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rxwxunc Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Looks like the 18z NAM was just screwing with us. 00z is wide right. Yeah. Looks like another episode of As The Models Turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 You got me to look at radar. No thunderstorms from a stationary arctic front draped across the GOM shoreline like in 2000. Remember a shortwave minor event came through 48 hours before the crusher putting down about .15 mostly freezing rain. Cold air was in place and another northern stream shortwave dropped into the leftover front and that's what set off the fireworks. However looking at radar and seeing the snow flying back in TX, OK, NM looks like the old days pre internet/model access. When you would see that depiction you would perk up. Has that look tonight and it's been a long time since I've seen it. Definitely first time this year that I can recall. I remember watching TWC back in the day, seeing the snow and ice in TX, knowing it was going east. Now, it goes from TX to MO to PA to NY to MA, or it fizzles out. Every. Single. Time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 One thing to note is that it seems that the EPS jumped onboard with a snowier solution for the potential storm next week. Looks like it caved to the GEFS in many ways in the LR with a colder look For example, the Euro ensemble mean was showing almost nothing for GSO at 00z last night, but the mean is up to 3.5" now on the 12z run. There's a few big dogs on there, too. The ensemble mean for the weekend potential is ~1". EPS rough means for various cities for next week:Greensboro: 3.5" Charlotte: 2.5" Raleigh: 1.75" Asheville: 4" Boone: 5" Greenville, SC: 2.25" Columbia: 0.25" Chatanooga: 1" There's nothing really notable (>1") south of upstate SC that I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Plus we have the rock solid DGEX on our side. What could go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 One thing to note is that it seems that the EPS jumped onboard with a snowier solution for the potential storm next week. Looks like it caved to the GEFS in many ways in the LR with a colder look For example, the Euro ensemble mean was showing almost nothing for GSO at 00z last night, but the mean is up to 3.5" now on the 12z run. There's a few big dogs on there, too. The ensemble mean for the weekend potential is ~1". EPS rough means for various cities for next week: Greensboro: 3.5" Charlotte: 2.5" Raleigh: 1.75" Asheville: 4" Boone: 5" Greenville, SC: 2.25" Columbia: 0.25" Chatanooga: 1" There's nothing really notable (>1") south of upstate SC that I can tell. 1.75" for RDU sounds about right. That's a big storm these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Nice "long track" snow potential shown, while the state of TN gets the dgex middle finger. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 One thing to note is that it seems that the EPS jumped onboard with a snowier solution for the potential storm next week. Looks like it caved to the GEFS in many ways in the LR with a colder look For example, the Euro ensemble mean was showing almost nothing for GSO at 00z last night, but the mean is up to 3.5" now on the 12z run. There's a few big dogs on there, too. The ensemble mean for the weekend potential is ~1". EPS rough means for various cities for next week: Greensboro: 3.5" Charlotte: 2.5" Raleigh: 1.75" Asheville: 4" Boone: 5" Greenville, SC: 2.25" Columbia: 0.25" Chatanooga: 1" There's nothing really notable (>1") south of upstate SC that I can tell. I bet a lot of that for CAE, GSP, CLT, and RDU is really ZR. CAE's 0.25" may be just about all ZR. Let's see if Goofy goes back to a more widespread NC/upstate SC storm at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I bet a lot of that for CAE, GSP, CLT, and RDU is really ZR. CAE's 0.25" may be just about all ZR. Let's see if Goofy goes back to a more widespread NC/upstate SC storm at least. Are the WeatherBell Euro ensemble mean totals also plagued by the same issues with the snow algorithm that the operational maps are plagued with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Are the WeatherBell Euro ensemble mean totals also plagued by the same issues with the snow algorithm that the operational maps are plagued with? Unfortunately, yes . Shawn and I recently figured this out. We didn't realize it when I was first looking at them for the 1/28-30 storm. However, we later figured out that each ensemble member is plagued with the same silly problem. Why the algorithm can include a line that requires 850's to be 0 C or colder is a mystery to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 0z gfs is back showing frozen precip for parts of NC on 2/12. The high to the north is at 1028 like the 18z run but on the 0z run it's not sliding of the coast a filtering in some good cold. Really nice hit for NC. Edit: I haven't checked any sounding but it looks to be a sn/ip mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Well the 0z gfs was a perfect track for RDU storms...Too bad it's 7 days away. Sn/ip in RDU from around hr 147 and still there at hr 180....LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 0z gfs is back showing frozen precip for parts of NC on 2/12. The high to the north is at 1028 like the 18z run but on the 0z run it's not sliding of the coast a filtering in some good cold. Really nice hit for NC. Edit: I haven't checked any sounding but it looks to be a sn/ip mix. Yep, really good...Miller A storm with enough suppression to get a lot of folks in the game. Looks like freezing rain to sleet/snow. Haven't checked soundings yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Looks like a "warm" winter storm to me. Temps probably not too far from 30 in the western/northern piedmont. Copious moisture though. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Looks like a "warm" winter storm to me. Temps probably not too far from 30 in the western/northern piedmont. Copious moisture though. TW Anyone think the solid snow pack to our north help this thing trend a little colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I"m guessing that with hp holding in a good location, that it can help in keeping temps a couple of degrees colder than without a good snowpack. It would have no impact on frozen vs. liquid, but could on plain rain vs zr. Just my opinion though. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Looks like a "warm" winter storm to me. Temps probably not too far from 30 in the western/northern piedmont. Copious moisture though. TW Hickory shows it starting at around freezing but dropping into the mid 20's fairly quick, Greensboro actually about 34 degrees at onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Hickory shows it starting at around freezing but dropping into the mid 20's fairly quick, Greensboro actually about 34 degrees at onset. Hope you're right. 25 is much better than 30. What hour are you looking at? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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