BIG FROSTY Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 12z CMC looks interesting from Charlotte to Raleigh! This is hour 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This may be like that little disturbance that passed through Thanksgiving eve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 12z CMC looks interesting from Charlotte to Raleigh! This is hour 39 . Where is the moisture source for this event/ system? What do temps look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 12z CMC looks interesting from Charlotte to Raleigh! This is hour 39 . Where is the moisture source for this event/ system? What do temps look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 That looks like a decent hit of snow for the Carolina's Friday morning?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Easy on the post button ! Friday morning looks good, even imby, per Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Sorry about the double post. Is this somethig that's just kinda sneaking up on us? Talking about fir morn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 12z NAM for KCAE on bufkit: shawn - what site do you use to get this graphic? thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 FFC with a Special Weather Statement regarding tomorrow night: ...FAST MOVING SYSTEM TO BRING POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER TO AREATHURSDAY EVENING...OVERVIEW...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THEMISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA THURSDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY SPREADMOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THURSDAYAFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT RAINDEVELOPING FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON INITIALLY BY 10 AM TO NOON. FROMTHERE...IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TO START IN THE ATLANTA METRODURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE ONSET OFPRECIPITATION...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S WHICHWILL RESULT IN JUST A COLD RAIN. HOWEVER...AS THE RAINCONTINUES...THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITH LIGHT SNOW MIXING INWITH THE RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF A LA GRANGE TO ATHENS LINE AND UPTO THE ATLANTA METRO DURING THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY. NORTH OFTHE METRO AND INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEMAINLY SNOW BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. ALL THEPRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDERTEMPERATURES MOVING IN ITS WAKE.IMPACTS...AT THIS POINT...THIS LOOKS TO BE A FAR DIFFERENT SCENARIO THANLAST WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THEPRECIPITATION IS FALLING. ALSO...LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATIONWILL FURTHER LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. BASED ON THESEFACTORS...WE ARE GOING WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR MOST ALLAREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINSWHERE A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE. BY FAR...THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACTWILL BE THE BLACK ICE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURESRUSH IN AND RESIDUAL WET ROADWAYS BECOME SLICK DUE TO ICE. THISTHREAT COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES NOTEXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL 10 AM.SUMMARY...THIS IS A RAPIDLY EVOLVING WINTER WEATHER EVENT WITH THESCOPE REMAINING UNCERTAIN. WE WILL BE VIGOROUSLY INSPECTING THELATEST DATA TO COME IN THIS EVENING TO DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNTS IFANY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THURSDAYNIGHT AND FRIDAY TRAVEL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 FFC with a Special Weather Statement regarding tomorrow night: ...FAST MOVING SYSTEM TO BRING POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER TO AREA THURSDAY EVENING... OVERVIEW... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA THURSDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON INITIALLY BY 10 AM TO NOON. FROM THERE...IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TO START IN THE ATLANTA METRO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S WHICH WILL RESULT IN JUST A COLD RAIN. HOWEVER...AS THE RAIN CONTINUES...THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITH LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF A LA GRANGE TO ATHENS LINE AND UP TO THE ATLANTA METRO DURING THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY. NORTH OF THE METRO AND INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SNOW BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. ALL THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ITS WAKE. IMPACTS... AT THIS POINT...THIS LOOKS TO BE A FAR DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN LAST WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING. ALSO...LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WILL FURTHER LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. BASED ON THESE FACTORS...WE ARE GOING WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR MOST ALL AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE. BY FAR...THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACT WILL BE THE BLACK ICE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES RUSH IN AND RESIDUAL WET ROADWAYS BECOME SLICK DUE TO ICE. THIS THREAT COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL 10 AM. SUMMARY...THIS IS A RAPIDLY EVOLVING WINTER WEATHER EVENT WITH THE SCOPE REMAINING UNCERTAIN. WE WILL BE VIGOROUSLY INSPECTING THE LATEST DATA TO COME IN THIS EVENING TO DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNTS IF ANY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TRAVEL. Sounds like they are taking this more serious than the last one, at this point in time and impacts look way less! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Just wanted to let y'all know it's snowing in Boone ATM. Don't remember seeing this modeled at all for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Don't know, so far I am not that impressed for anything much tomorrow, at least here. WSI RPM has nothing at all, 18Z NAM has some really light stuff passing mostly south of us, maybe we see a few flakes with temps above freezing sometime tomorrow afternoon, yawn. We will see if it trends differently but for now, meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 They are in cover your a** mode for the rest of this winter. You can tell by how thorough they were. Before last week they would not have had a special weather statement for this, no way. One thing that is for certain is that the highways will be loaded with people if a flake falls. People will be having panic attacks even though this will be nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 18z NAM has a system running of the coast of the SE. Looks like heavy precip over the coastal regions of SC and NC. The precip shield runs from S. Central Ga up through central SC and NC. The 850 line looks to run from just east of Charlotte up through Raleigh. Not sure what to make of this. If this occured exactly as depicted there could be some significant snow right along the westward edge. **maybe RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Gsp disco.. & Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... as of 300 PM EST Wednesday...the extended range forecast period initializes at 00z Sunday admits a split flow upper pattern. A southern stream Miller a type system will consist of a weak upper wave and an associated surface low passing through the southeast ejecting over the western Atlantic. A northern steam...more potent upper wave will be pushing through the upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes. A cold front associated with the northern stream low will spread across the region Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon with weak upslope induced precipitation possible during the morning hours along the high terrain. Any lingering precipitation behind the passing frontal boundary could lead to slight chances for mixed precipitation in the mountain valleys...with light snow showers possible at the higher peaks. Beyond that...Canadian high pressure will dive southward into the upper Midwest lasting through the start of the work week yielding below normal temperatures. This surface ridge will setup a cad regime across the eastern Continental U.S. As upper level confluent pattern allows for persistence/strengthening of surface high. By Tuesday morning...1035mb high will be in place across the northeast with a strong classic wedge extending to the south along the Lee side of the southern Appalachians. At this point...long range guidance seems to disagree with regards to the persistence of The Wedge. Latest 12z European model (ecmwf) indicates critical thickness values supportive of a wintry mix as far south as the i85 corridor late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before warm advection takes over Wednesday and the cad erodes from south to north through the day. Likewise...ptype will transition from a wintry mix to all rain with this pattern leading to minimal accumulations. The GFS on the other hand trends cooler with the cad holding strong through the entire period. This would obviously lead to issues with freezing rain and potential ice accumulation across areas along an north of the i85 corridor. As for the forecast...went with a blend of the two as confidence in either remains low at this time. Thus...will highlight increasing probability of precipitation through Tuesday morning with probability of precipitation peaking at high end chance levels across the entire County warning forecast area by middle morning Wednesday with mentions of wintry precipitation. && Aviation /21z Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Euro ENS looks pretty close to the 18z NAM at 72. It's might be a tick wetter further west. It's a shame the SFC temps are so god awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 GSP says tomorrow wool be just light rain around me, if not virga! They seemed to be interested in the Tuesdayish storm. Said a cold front would come through Sunday ushering in a Canadian air mass. And like we already see, the GFS would be pretty serious icing along most of 85 corridor and high would hold, Euro showing transient high and not as cold, would be mix to start , transitioning to all rain in the same areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 18z NAM has a system running of the coast of the SE. Looks like heavy precip over the coastal regions of SC and NC. The precip shield runs from S. Central Ga up through central SC and NC. The 850 line looks to run from just east of Charlotte up through Raleigh. Not sure what to make of this. If this occured exactly as depicted there could be some significant snow right along the westward edge. **maybe RDU I was just about to post this. The Canadian is similar, but further west, and drops a few inches more along the I-85 corridor. The Euro did something similar last night, but was a touch too warm and wide right today (though it did look okay for CLT). The NAVGEM also looks similar. Surface temperatures might imply white rain on the 18z NAM as opposed to accumulating snowfall, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 12z NAM for KCAE on bufkit: shawn - what site do you use to get this graphic? thx It's the bufkit application that you can download on the NOAA site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Euro ENS looks pretty close to the 18z NAM at 72. It's might be a tick wetter further west. It's a shame the SFC temps are so god awful. Your right, dew points don't even drop below freezing with temps in the upper 30s for RDU(where precip is shown). At best it looks like a little mix, but most likely just cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Your right, dew points don't even drop below freezing with temps in the upper 30s for RDU(where precip is shown). At best it looks like a little mix, but most likely just cold rain. There appears to be at least some CAD, though, so guidance is probably going to verify too warm. It may not be enough, but nevertheless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Just went back and looked the 12 GFS for next weeks storm and that does show enough cold air. Looks like freezing or below freezing temps would hold true for most of north central and western NC from hour 144 to hour 192 with precip faliing(..nearly 50 hours). It looks to even extend down to the upstate of SC between hours 180 to 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 There appears to be at least some CAD, though, so guidance is probably going to verify too warm. It may not be enough, but nevertheless... It would be nice to just see some snow fly; but as I just stated in my last post I think this next weeks system is the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Plus, the QPF on the NAM is likely overdone by a factor of 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 18z NAM has a system running of the coast of the SE. Looks like heavy precip over the coastal regions of SC and NC. The precip shield runs from S. Central Ga up through central SC and NC. The 850 line looks to run from just east of Charlotte up through Raleigh. Not sure what to make of this. If this occured exactly as depicted there could be some significant snow right along the westward edge. **maybe RDU My experience is that these little events always trend north. With that I don't see the cold being strong enough to hold in. Will see though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 For the GA folks from the 12Z Canadian... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Just went back and looked the 12 GFS for next weeks storm and that does show enough cold air. Looks like freezing or below freezing temps would hold true for most of north central and western NC from hour 144 to hour 192 with precip faliing(..nearly 50 hours). It looks to even extend down to the upstate of SC between hours 180 to 192. does next weeks storm look like snow for wnc for most of the event or does some ice mix in with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 18z gfs is not as cold for the 2/12 storm therefore a big ole rainstorm for NC/SC/Ga. Edit: Looks like the high to the north is not as strong and the track of the sfc low is a little further west but there will be a lot of changes in upcoming runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 18z gfs is not as cold for the 2/12 storm therefore a big ole rainstorm for NC/SC/Ga. Edit: Looks like the high to the north is not as strong and the track of the sfc low is a little further west but there will be a lot of changes in upcoming runs. Well the moisture is certainly there...1.25 inches or more for almost all of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 18z gfs is not as cold for the 2/12 storm therefore a big ole rainstorm for NC/SC/Ga. Edit: Looks like the high to the north is not as strong and the track of the sfc low is a little further west but there will be a lot of changes in upcoming runs. Wash rinse repeat. This will trend on the models ( espeacily GFS) just like this weekend system has. Consistent big hit run after run, then once inside 5days , Kapoof! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.