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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II


buckeyefan1

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FFC with a Special Weather Statement regarding tomorrow night:

...FAST MOVING SYSTEM TO BRING POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER TO AREATHURSDAY EVENING...OVERVIEW...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THEMISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA THURSDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY SPREADMOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THURSDAYAFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT RAINDEVELOPING FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON INITIALLY BY 10 AM TO NOON. FROMTHERE...IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TO START IN THE ATLANTA METRODURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE ONSET OFPRECIPITATION...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S WHICHWILL RESULT IN JUST A COLD RAIN. HOWEVER...AS THE RAINCONTINUES...THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITH LIGHT SNOW MIXING INWITH THE RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF A LA GRANGE TO ATHENS LINE AND UPTO THE ATLANTA METRO DURING THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY. NORTH OFTHE METRO AND INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEMAINLY SNOW BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. ALL THEPRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDERTEMPERATURES MOVING IN ITS WAKE.IMPACTS...AT THIS POINT...THIS LOOKS TO BE A FAR DIFFERENT SCENARIO THANLAST WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THEPRECIPITATION IS FALLING. ALSO...LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATIONWILL FURTHER LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. BASED ON THESEFACTORS...WE ARE GOING WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR MOST ALLAREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINSWHERE A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE. BY FAR...THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACTWILL BE THE BLACK ICE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURESRUSH IN AND RESIDUAL WET ROADWAYS BECOME SLICK DUE TO ICE. THISTHREAT COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES NOTEXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL 10 AM.SUMMARY...THIS IS A RAPIDLY EVOLVING WINTER WEATHER EVENT WITH THESCOPE REMAINING UNCERTAIN. WE WILL BE VIGOROUSLY INSPECTING THELATEST DATA TO COME IN THIS EVENING TO DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNTS IFANY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THURSDAYNIGHT AND FRIDAY TRAVEL.
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FFC with a Special Weather Statement regarding tomorrow night:



...FAST MOVING SYSTEM TO BRING POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER TO AREA
THURSDAY EVENING...

OVERVIEW...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA THURSDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY SPREAD
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON INITIALLY BY 10 AM TO NOON. FROM
THERE...IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TO START IN THE ATLANTA METRO
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S WHICH
WILL RESULT IN JUST A COLD RAIN. HOWEVER...AS THE RAIN
CONTINUES...THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITH LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN
WITH THE RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF A LA GRANGE TO ATHENS LINE AND UP
TO THE ATLANTA METRO DURING THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY. NORTH OF
THE METRO AND INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MAINLY SNOW BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. ALL THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ITS WAKE.

IMPACTS...
AT THIS POINT...THIS LOOKS TO BE A FAR DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN
LAST WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THE
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING. ALSO...LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
WILL FURTHER LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. BASED ON THESE
FACTORS...WE ARE GOING WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR MOST ALL
AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE. BY FAR...THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACT
WILL BE THE BLACK ICE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES
RUSH IN AND RESIDUAL WET ROADWAYS BECOME SLICK DUE TO ICE. THIS
THREAT COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES NOT
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL 10 AM.

SUMMARY...THIS IS A RAPIDLY EVOLVING WINTER WEATHER EVENT WITH THE
SCOPE REMAINING UNCERTAIN. WE WILL BE VIGOROUSLY INSPECTING THE
LATEST DATA TO COME IN THIS EVENING TO DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNTS IF
ANY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY TRAVEL.
Sounds like they are taking this more serious than the last one, at this point in time and impacts look way less!
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Don't know, so far I am not that impressed for anything much tomorrow, at least here. WSI RPM has nothing at all, 18Z NAM has some really light stuff passing mostly south of us, maybe we see a few flakes with temps above freezing sometime tomorrow afternoon, yawn. We will see if it trends differently but for now, meh.

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They are in cover your a** mode for the rest of this winter.  You can tell by how thorough they were.  Before last week they would not have had a special weather statement for this, no way.

One thing that is for certain is that the highways will be loaded with people if a flake falls.  People will be having panic attacks even though this will be nothing.

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18z NAM has a system running of the coast of the SE. Looks like heavy precip over the coastal regions of SC and NC. The precip shield runs from S. Central Ga up through central SC and NC. The 850 line looks to run from just east of Charlotte up through Raleigh.

 

Not sure what to make of this. If this occured exactly as depicted there could be some significant snow right along the westward edge. **maybe RDU 

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Gsp disco..

& Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/... as of 300 PM EST Wednesday...the extended range forecast period initializes at 00z Sunday admits a split flow upper pattern. A southern stream Miller a type system will consist of a weak upper wave and an associated surface low passing through the southeast ejecting over the western Atlantic. A northern steam...more potent upper wave will be pushing through the upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes. A cold front associated with the northern stream low will spread across the region Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon with weak upslope induced precipitation possible during the morning hours along the high terrain. Any lingering precipitation behind the passing frontal boundary could lead to slight chances for mixed precipitation in the mountain valleys...with light snow showers possible at the higher peaks. Beyond that...Canadian high pressure will dive southward into the upper Midwest lasting through the start of the work week yielding below normal temperatures. This surface ridge will setup a cad regime across the eastern Continental U.S. As upper level confluent pattern allows for persistence/strengthening of surface high. By Tuesday morning...1035mb high will be in place across the northeast with a strong classic wedge extending to the south along the Lee side of the southern Appalachians. At this point...long range guidance seems to disagree with regards to the persistence of The Wedge. Latest 12z European model (ecmwf) indicates critical thickness values supportive of a wintry mix as far south as the i85 corridor late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before warm advection takes over Wednesday and the cad erodes from south to north through the day. Likewise...ptype will transition from a wintry mix to all rain with this pattern leading to minimal accumulations. The GFS on the other hand trends cooler with the cad holding strong through the entire period. This would obviously lead to issues with freezing rain and potential ice accumulation across areas along an north of the i85 corridor. As for the forecast...went with a blend of the two as confidence in either remains low at this time. Thus...will highlight increasing probability of precipitation through Tuesday morning with probability of precipitation peaking at high end chance levels across the entire County warning forecast area by middle morning Wednesday with mentions of wintry precipitation. && Aviation /21z Wednesday

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GSP says tomorrow wool be just light rain around me, if not virga! They seemed to be interested in the Tuesdayish storm. Said a cold front would come through Sunday ushering in a Canadian air mass. And like we already see, the GFS would be pretty serious icing along most of 85 corridor and high would hold, Euro showing transient high and not as cold, would be mix to start , transitioning to all rain in the same areas

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18z NAM has a system running of the coast of the SE. Looks like heavy precip over the coastal regions of SC and NC. The precip shield runs from S. Central Ga up through central SC and NC. The 850 line looks to run from just east of Charlotte up through Raleigh.

 

Not sure what to make of this. If this occured exactly as depicted there could be some significant snow right along the westward edge. **maybe RDU 

 

I was just about to post this.  The Canadian is similar, but further west, and drops a few inches more along the I-85 corridor.  The Euro did something similar last night, but was a touch too warm and wide right today (though it did look okay for CLT).  The NAVGEM also looks similar.

 

Surface temperatures might imply white rain on the 18z NAM as opposed to accumulating snowfall, though. :(

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Your right, dew points don't even drop below freezing with temps in the upper 30s for RDU(where precip is shown). At best it looks like a little mix, but most likely just cold rain.

 

There appears to be at least some CAD, though, so guidance is probably going to verify too warm.  It may not be enough, but nevertheless...

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Just went back and looked the 12 GFS for next weeks storm and that does show enough cold air. Looks like freezing or below freezing temps would hold true for most of north central and western NC from hour 144 to hour 192 with precip faliing(..nearly 50 hours). It looks to even extend down to the upstate of SC between hours 180 to 192.  

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18z NAM has a system running of the coast of the SE. Looks like heavy precip over the coastal regions of SC and NC. The precip shield runs from S. Central Ga up through central SC and NC. The 850 line looks to run from just east of Charlotte up through Raleigh.

 

Not sure what to make of this. If this occured exactly as depicted there could be some significant snow right along the westward edge. **maybe RDU 

 

My experience is that these little events always trend north. With that I don't see the cold being strong enough to hold in. Will see though

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Just went back and looked the 12 GFS for next weeks storm and that does show enough cold air. Looks like freezing or below freezing temps would hold true for most of north central and western NC from hour 144 to hour 192 with precip faliing(..nearly 50 hours). It looks to even extend down to the upstate of SC between hours 180 to 192.  

does next weeks storm look like snow for wnc for most of the event or does some ice mix in with it?

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18z gfs is not as cold for the 2/12 storm therefore a big ole rainstorm for NC/SC/Ga.

 

Edit: Looks like the high to the north is not as strong and the track of the sfc low is a little further west but there will be a lot of changes in upcoming runs.

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18z gfs is not as cold for the 2/12 storm therefore a big ole rainstorm for NC/SC/Ga.

Edit: Looks like the high to the north is not as strong and the track of the sfc low is a little further west but there will be a lot of changes in upcoming runs.

Well the moisture is certainly there...1.25 inches or more for almost all of NC.

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18z gfs is not as cold for the 2/12 storm therefore a big ole rainstorm for NC/SC/Ga.

 

Edit: Looks like the high to the north is not as strong and the track of the sfc low is a little further west but there will be a lot of changes in upcoming runs.

Wash rinse repeat. This will trend on the models ( espeacily GFS) just like this weekend system has. Consistent big hit run after run, then once inside 5days , Kapoof!

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