Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Looking at the extracted data from the 12Z GFS it gives me .74 QPF with 850's ranging from 0 to -3 during the storm and surface temps in the 20's. Edit: Actually the QPF is a little over an inch as some of this falls post 180 which I didn't see at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Why is another thread needed? If people quit talking so about these fantasy storms if wouldn't get so confusing. Oh no gfs at 240 showing temps below 32 with half inch of ice. GFS at 150 looks great but no cold air. What are we going to do? brickbot... I'm tired of this cold miserable rain blah blah blah. Euro shows a bomb @ 240 yay... Can't tell people nothing if they choose not to listen. Thats the reason why you see these retarded moods swings. Just because it says one thing does not mean it will happen exactly on that date or scale. People on this board put too much emphasis in these fantasies. Its like the hot girl that will never give the time of day to you weather you're buttcrack ugly and loaded wallet. I think Friday looks like a legit threat from maybe ATL / Cola? Temps may be a concern, but when are they not? I don't consider Tuesday of next week "fantasy" timeframe! 6 days is not fantasy, 384 GFS is fantasy. We got burnt by this weekends event, but that's what we do watch, wait, and hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Well I hate to follow ncweather's post but chasing the hot girl. The cmc has the storm for the middle of next w/ somewhat of a cad sig. Not as strong as what the gfs was showing but at this point we should just leave it as the cmc has a storm in the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I think Friday looks like a legit threat from maybe ATL / Cola? Temps may be a concern, but when are they not? I don't consider Tuesday of next week "fantasy" timeframe! 6 days is not fantasy, 384 GFS is fantasy. We got burnt by this weekends event, but that's what we do watch, wait, and hope! We agree a lot but not here. Go ahead and try to convince me that the models at day 6 have been anywhere close to reality the last three months. Oh, and it's too early for one storm thread let alone two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Well I hate to follow ncweather's post but chasing the hot girl. The cmc has the storm for the middle of next w/ somewhat of a cad sig. Not as strong as what the gfs was showing but at this point we should just leave it as the cmc has a storm in the same time frame. There is nothing wrong with chasing the hot girl, one day she may trip and fall, then you got her! Friday stillooks interesting for my area I think we can get the moisture in a little quicker, we may see some white rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Usually I'd say 6 day lead with many of the major models showing a storm in that time range is not too long to make a thread, jump on board, whatever you want to call it. However seeing that we just went through this song and dance for this weekend, makes me think it's pretty much a mirage (no really it's a mirror image of what was modeled; crazy). Shame on you models..... If it doesn't crash and burn dumpster fire by this weekend, make a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 12Z 2/5 run: at least 7th GFS run in a row showing sig. wintry precip. for part of the SE within 2/11-13 in addition to the last two Euro runs showing something. This run has a straight Miller A with lengthy CAD from a NE sfc high at 1035 mb at its strongest, which is strong enough to support a major wintry CAD event as per history and considering how cold is the high. Per MeteoStar for 12Z 2/5 GFS late 2/11 to early 2/13: 1. NC hit hard: -GSO S/IP: 0.90" qpf; coldest 26 -RDU IP: 0.90"; coldest 28 -HKY S/IP: 0.70"; coldest 28 -CLT IP/ZR: 0.60"; coldest 29 2. SC: GSP hit pretty hard -GSP IP/ZR: 0.60"; coldest 31 3. GA/SC cities with cold rain verbatim but close call and may not be modeled cold enough considering the 850's that are mainly 6 C or colder and also how cold it is in NC as well as the sig. amount of qpf - CAE 1.5"; coldest 35 - GVL 0.75"; coldest 34 - AHN 1.1"; coldest 34 - ATL metro: - MGE 1"; 36 - PDK 1"; 35 - ATL 1.25"; 35 - FFC 1.25" 36 (36 all of the way down to FFC is pretty noteworthy) ** We're now just about to get within 6 days of the start of this per the 12Z GFS and the 0Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 "Hot girl falls at CVS on aisle 4. White Rain was on sale." Sorry, you opened the door. I'm pulling for us. Just not sure which game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Next weeks event looks to be a little different compared to this weekend event (pre-setup wise). The potenetial storm is not that far off when looking at when the storm becomes staged to start its move towards the SE(just past hour 120). There will be cold air establsihed before the storm and a high pressure that is not transient. I know we've said this many times in the past(... just recently) but this really is our best chance of a major winter event. Even if it is ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 12z NAM is a big hit for KCAE per Bufkit. Whole sounding goes below freezing to the surface. COBB data output puts 5.8 inches down. No COBB = 2.0 inches. What's odd is the website that we use a lot to view the raw text just has it as RAIN/SNOW mix... and looks nothing like Bufkit at all. There may just be an axis of heavy precip that comes through parts of GA/SC to give a surprise here Friday. IF the NAM is right of course. GFS looks like poo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 1) The 12Z GEFS is very much supportive of a heavy qpf event (0.75-1.5") for late 2/11 to 2/13. It also shows a nice wedging sig. from a decent strengthed cold high in the NE. 2) The moisture feeding into this SE storm is associated with the heaviest rainfall by far going into SF/northern California since December of 2012! The 12Z GEFS has them getting 2-3" for this weekend! So, considering the upper flow, a quite significant SE qpf event for next week makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 -SN falling in Charlotte by 12z on Saturday, as shown by the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 -SN falling in Charlotte by 12z on Saturday, as shown by the euro. Interested to see the soundings for kclt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Interested to see the soundings for kclt Unfortunately, the only euro sounding data that was public access is no more. Looks like snow through 12z on Saturday. .15 QPF so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Looks like one of those events where it snows overnight, puts down an inch or two and then it's gone by noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Looks like one of those events where it snows overnight, puts down an inch or two and then it's gone by noon.Where is the moisture coming from? A coastal storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Looks like one of those events where it snows overnight, puts down an inch or two and then it's gone by noon. What areas are we talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 More interested in next week TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 12Z Euro is the 3rd run in a row, in addition to 7+ GFS runs in a row, showing a sig. wintry event in the SE within 2./11-13. Although N GA and SC are again too warm verbatim, much of NC gets a very nice largely ZR event that starts 2/11. Ice, ice, baby!! Get your generators asap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I wouldn't mind a little snow Friday night or early Saturday considering Saturday is my birthday..... but I'll trade it for a good storm next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 12Z Euro's qpf fwiw is lighter than the 0Z with mainly 0.25-.50" of ZR for much of NC. I'd totally ignore the Euro's clown, which is a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 What areas are we talking about? Central NC has snow chances with the upper disturbance crossing through Thursday-Friday morning timeframe. Moisture is not too deep but could see a strip of flurries from N GA to Central NC. Then Saturday with two areas of deepest moisture along the coast and another area dropping out of the N/W like the gfs was showing with the strong frontogensis what like a day or 1.5 days ago. The 850 0C line appears to stay along the 85 corridor from CLT to Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Central NC has snow chances with the upper disturbance crossing through Thursday-Friday morning timeframe. Moisture is not too deep but could see a strip of flurries from N GA to Central NC. Then Saturday with two areas of deepest moisture along the coast and another area dropping out of the N/W like the gfs was showing with the strong frontogensis what like a day or 1.5 days ago. The 850 0C line appears to stay along the 85 corridor from CLT to Richmond Thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 So the Saturday " event" would be a 35-40 degree snow for most with cold enough 850s but marginal ground temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 12z NAM for KCAE on bufkit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Cobb output gives CLT just over a half inch of freezing rain on 2/12 with temps falling into the mid 20's from the 12z GFS. Lace up your ice skates ladies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 12Z Euro is the 3rd run in a row, in addition to 7+ GFS runs in a row, showing a sig. wintry event in the SE within 2./11-13. Although N GA and SC are again too warm verbatim, much of NC gets a very nice largely ZR event that starts 2/11. Ice, ice, baby!! Get your generators asap. You do know you are egging folks on with models who have been changing from run to run, don't you Why not just wait until a Miller A shows up with temps in the 20's, and 2 inches of qpf, all snow and sleet? It's coming...just wait a run or two, lol. I know you are playing, but some of the more impressionable may not. Hard on the heels of your recent great success, you might be incorrectly construed We are close enough to Friday, where I might be persuaded to think there is a chance down here for something...if the 0 line moves south, and if that tongue of precip moves over me. Otherwise, it's just fools gold past two days out, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 You do know you are egging folks on with models who have been changing from run to run, don't you Why not just wait until a Miller A shows up with temps in the 20's, and 2 inches of qpf, all snow and sleet? It's coming...just wait a run or two, lol. I know you are playing, but some of the more impressionable may not. Hard on the heels of your recent great success, you might be incorrectly construed We are close enough to Friday, where I might be persuaded to think there is a chance down here for something...if the 0 line moves south, and if that tongue of precip moves over me. Otherwise, it's just fools gold past two days out, lol. T Soundings might support wait for it.. SLEET for your area if the NAM is right.. for thurs/friday area. I had just glanced quickly over a sounding though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 RAH not very impressed with the wintery chances Friday night / Saturday morning, but they are acknowledging the potential for snow. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...S/W IN THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM CROSSESTHE LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY.THIS FEATURE INDUCES SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST BYSATURDAY MORNING. TEH GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A LOW FARTHEROFFSHORE WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS CLOSER TO SHORE. THE ECMWF SCENARIOIS A WETTER SOLUTION FOR CENTRAL NC COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPSTHE BEST MOISTURE/LIFT ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINA. PRESENCE OF THE DRYSFC RIDGE AND DEVELOPING SLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC SUGGEST THEONSET OF A HYBRID DAMMING EVENT ONCE THE PRECIP STARTS ACROSS THEREGION. THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER MAY COOL THEAIRMASS ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE PRECIP TO INITIALLY FALL AS LIGHT SNOWOR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED. THIS WINTRY MIX WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TOOCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND MAINLY BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10AM. APPEARS THAT ANY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS AMOUNTSEXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS VERIFIES.PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE ALL LIQUID BY LATE MORNING WITH RAIN TAPERINGOFF FROM THE SW DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MAIN ENERGY ALOFT LIFTS NEWDAWAY FROM OUR REGION.SINCE ANTICIPATING A DAMMING EVENT...FAVOR HIGH TEMPS SATURDAYCOOLER THAN GUIDANCE. POTENTIAL FOR THE NW PIEDMONT TO REMAIN IN THE30S ALL DAY. MAX TEMPS UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SE. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 RAH not very impressed with the wintery chances Friday night / Saturday morning, but they are acknowledging the potential for snow. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...S/W IN THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM CROSSES THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE INDUCES SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. TEH GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS CLOSER TO SHORE. THE ECMWF SCENARIO IS A WETTER SOLUTION FOR CENTRAL NC COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE/LIFT ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINA. PRESENCE OF THE DRY SFC RIDGE AND DEVELOPING SLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC SUGGEST THE ONSET OF A HYBRID DAMMING EVENT ONCE THE PRECIP STARTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER MAY COOL THE AIRMASS ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE PRECIP TO INITIALLY FALL AS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED. THIS WINTRY MIX WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND MAINLY BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM. APPEARS THAT ANY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS VERIFIES. PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE ALL LIQUID BY LATE MORNING WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF FROM THE SW DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MAIN ENERGY ALOFT LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM OUR REGION. SINCE ANTICIPATING A DAMMING EVENT...FAVOR HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. POTENTIAL FOR THE NW PIEDMONT TO REMAIN IN THE 30S ALL DAY. MAX TEMPS UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SE. -- End Changed Discussion -- It's a shame we lost the stronger high to our north when we finally got the track we wanted. The timing of the event (middle of the day) for our area doesn't help either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.