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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II


buckeyefan1

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Personally I'm waiting on Brother Ray AND Brother D-Von to both jump on board. Then, possibly, through a table. We'll see. 

 

All we've been getting is Brother A-Yon in the Impact Zone.....speaking of the GFS it's holding that southern energy better. Probably not going to do much but if it sets the track for the next storm with just a little more cold air we'll be in buisness. 

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The good news is the 00z Euro op is running hot in the next crucial time period, 200hrs+, the OP 2mT both max and minimum are on the outskirts of the warmest ensemble members, possibly mishandling how much cold air is around when that second low we're watching rides up the coast. The current OP has 0c 850's all the way down to Panama City but the track of the OP low allows +15 C in NC...likely mishandling it. Something to watch.

 

At least the teleconnections look somewhat good today on all models, with the NAO/AO trending negative and PNA on the up and up. We'll see if it holds. Winter isn't over, yet.

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BL is horrible.   That would be some damn cold rain

 

Edit to add surface temps

 

 

I actually think it would go from rain to snow after evaporatoinal cooling does it's job IF the nam is right on how much precip there is. It's a shame this doesn't come in the morning because it would no doubt be snow. But due to the horrible timing, temps do get into the 40s. However, wetbulb zero heights are low enough that i think there is a chance it would change over before ending. You can see the effects of this in places like columbia, who also start off very warm, but the nam has snow reaching the surface and dropping temps to near freezing before ending. In situations like this the models might not get a handle on such micro type situations/the cooling in a banding type situation (or the  models are too slow in cooling the surface). However, the nam DOES show this happening all throughout central ga.

 

 Of course all of this is moot if you don't have a substantial amount of precip to actually reach the wetbulb throughout the column. The gfs, although wetter, wouldn't be enough.

 

But if the nam is right with that much precip, there would likely be a stripe of snow somewhere..while it's raining to the north and south of that stripe of snow..as there is not enough precip to cool the column to the north and it's just too warm period to the south.

 

Here is FFC's sounding. This would mean it's likely snowing at ffc or very close by. nam has temps dropping to 33 or so from around or just north of columbus to around or just north of augusta to columbia with warmer temps north and south. that means snow folks. But again that is if that much precip actually falls and the nam isn't too wet. And considering it is sort of all alone in being this wet, it probably is too wet. rgem shows a tenth..which wouldn't be enough either...or at best a few flakes or a little sleet mixed in but nothing of consequence.

Date: 36 hour Eta valid 0Z FRI  7 FEB 14
Station: KFFC
Latitude:   33.37
Longitude: -84.55
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   213                                                                 
SFC  995   254   2.8  -0.3  80  3.1   1.5 303   3 276.3 277.0 274.9 286.6  3.75
  2  950   626   0.0  -2.2  85  2.2  -0.9 325   6 277.2 277.8 274.9 286.7  3.43
  3  900  1057  -2.0  -3.4  90  1.4  -2.5 315   8 279.5 280.0 276.0 288.7  3.31
  4  850  1513  -1.2  -5.3  73  4.2  -2.8 294  12 284.9 285.5 278.4 293.6  3.02
  5  800  1995  -2.1  -5.4  79  3.2  -3.4 276  14 288.9 289.4 280.6 298.2  3.20
  6  750  2507  -2.4  -3.6  91  1.3  -2.9 252  23 294.0 294.7 283.6 305.5  3.89
  7  700  3055  -2.6  -3.2  95  0.7  -2.9 238  40 299.7 300.4 286.2 312.6  4.30
  8  650  3643  -3.6  -4.1  96  0.5  -3.8 241  53 304.9 305.7 288.1 318.2  4.33
  9  600  4273  -5.9  -6.6  95  0.6  -6.2 243  66 309.2 310.0 289.2 321.5  3.90
 10  550  4950 -10.0 -11.2  92  1.1 -10.5 242  75 312.2 312.7 289.3 321.7  2.96
 11  500  5678 -14.4 -16.2  86  1.8 -15.0 240  79 315.5 315.9 289.5 322.5  2.15
 12  450  6469 -19.5 -21.6  83  2.1 -20.0 237  82 318.8 319.0 289.9 323.9  1.51
 13  400  7334 -25.5 -29.2  71  3.7 -26.2 240  84 321.8 322.0 290.2 324.8  0.8
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As has been the case for 7-8+ runs in a row, here comes the system toward the SE US. Some precip. to start 2/11 PM on this run. Cold rain N GA. CAD about to get established.

 

 Late 2/11 into 2/12: Cold rain N GA. ZR/IP/S NC. Any snow changes to mostly ZR CAD regions.

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Yep, but 2m temps appear to be below freezing...Not that it matters this far out.  GFS advertising a long event.

 

Yeah, this is a nice, long duration ZR event as modeled mainly for NC. Starts as snow/mix late 2/11 and then to ZR that doesn't end all areas til early 2/13.

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Eh, I don't really like how the cold air (at least in the upper levels) seems to be on the retreat as the storm comes in. Looks like a nice snow to ice storm as modelled. We've still got a long way to go, though. It's probably best not to get too invested in this LR threat unless you like eventual disappointment and failure.

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Yeah, this is a nice, long duration ZR event as modeled mainly for NC.

Yep, buried in ice. Didn't we see this very thing last week? Maybe in association with a bigger storm, but the same sort of thing.

What we have seen is confluence moving out of the NE more quickly than originally progged, another shortwave moving into the NE, messing up confluence, the southern wave not being as strong or as far south as originally modeled, and a nice winter storm for the midwest.

Maybe this time, high pressure will trend stronger and last longer. Maybe this time, the southern wave will hold together and track south. Maybe this time, we'll get a huge winter storm. But I doubt it.

In any case, the model shows another long duration ice storm a week + out, like you said.

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Yep, buried in ice. Didn't we see this very thing last week? Maybe in association with a bigger storm, but the same sort of thing.

What we have seen is confluence moving out of the NE more quickly than originally progged, another shortwave moving into the NE, messing up confluence, the southern wave not being as strong or as far south as originally modeled, and a nice winter storm for the midwest.

Maybe this time, high pressure will trend stronger and last longer. Maybe this time, the southern wave will hold together and track south. Maybe this time, we'll get a huge winter storm. But I doubt it.

In any case, the model shows another long duration ice storm a week + out, like you said.

 

Deja vu, this seem very familiar....

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It is interesting that the NAVGEM and Canadian are now picking up on the weekend coastal that the Euro showed last night, Packbacker. Now we just need some more cold air to work with...

 

The CMC/NAVGEM does have a much stronger VORT tracking to our south, it's what I was hoping this would do.  Let's see what Euro shows.

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Brothers, it seems like the GFS is going to reel us in 6-7 days out again jusssssst like this weekends event. Everyone was talking about Sundays storm was the best looking storm all season and setting up to have a CAD signature not seen in years. Well we all know where that's leading us. I'm trying to stay optimistic but it's hard when we keep getting fooled into believing the models beyond 6 days especially when all of them were agreeing.

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Which event, next week? Even if they are duds, maybe we need a Friday storm discussion and one for next week? It's getting confusing at times with discussion about both mixed in here!

Why is another thread needed? If people quit talking so about these fantasy storms if wouldn't get so confusing.

 

Oh no gfs at 240 showing temps below 32 with half inch of ice. GFS at 150 looks great but no cold air. What are we going to do? brickbot... I'm tired of this cold miserable rain blah blah blah. Euro shows a bomb @ 240 yay... :rolleyes::axe:

 

Can't tell people nothing if they choose not to listen. Thats the reason why you see these retarded moods swings. Just because it says one thing does not mean it will happen exactly on that date or scale. People on this board put too much emphasis in these fantasies. Its like the hot girl that will never give the time of day to you weather you're buttcrack ugly and loaded wallet.

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Why is another thread needed? If people quit talking so about these fantasy storms if wouldn't get so confusing.

 

Oh no gfs at 240 showing temps below 32 with half inch of ice. GFS at 150 looks great but no cold air. What are we going to do? brickbot... I'm tired of this cold miserable rain blah blah blah. Euro shows a bomb @ 240 yay... :rolleyes::axe:

 

Can't tell people nothing if they choose not to listen. Thats the reason why you see these retarded moods swings. Just because it says one thing does not mean it will happen exactly on that date or scale. People on this board put too much emphasis in these fantasies. Its like the hot girl that will never give the time of day to you weather you're buttcrack ugly and loaded wallet.

 

Nobody is talking about fantasy storms? You dont understand the definition of fantasy storms if you think the event next week falls into that category.

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