GaWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Are you comparing to the last GEFS run or the 0z GFS? And I very possibly could be wrong! I just started model tracking and am not particularly skilled in this regard, so hopefully I don't throw people off making comments occasionally. I was comparing to the 0Z GFS. However, when comparing to the 18Z GEFS, it is, indeed, slightly warmer. So, assuming that's what you meant, I'd say you're correct. I apologize for the misunderstanding. Now let's see what the King says about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 LMAO. The Euro is a hit for the western fringes. Wow. Accumulating snow along the I-85 corridor from my area up towards Richmond. 2-4", perhaps, around hr 90. Accumulating snowfall goes down towards CLT, but it's less than an inch, I believe. The Euro clown gives James ~2" and the Brickster ~1" on 2/8. How 'bout dem apples! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 LMAO. The Euro is a hit for the western fringes. Wow. Accumulating snow along the I-85 corridor from my area up towards Richmond. 2-4", perhaps, around hr 90. Accumulating snowfall goes down towards CLT, but it's less than an inch, I believe. Yep, it's getting closer. Looks like 4" in Roxboro, 2m's are warm but worry about that later :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The Euro clown gives James ~2" and the Brickster ~1" on 2/8. How 'bout dem apples! Yep, it's getting closer. Looks like 4" in Roxboro, 2m's are warm but worry about that later :-) Yeah, and I was about to punt this, too. We'll see if it's a something to watch or just a fluke of a run. 2m temperatures are a little warm (looks like 33-34ish during precip?), but I'll just write that off to the Euro's warm bias and sleep soundly. Sometimes, you can't make this stuff up. The Euro actually was close at 12z, too, but it was too warm. Looks like the Euro brings through some flizzards into NC and maybe upstate SC on day 5, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Look out! I think the Doctor is going to be in the house for 2/12-13. We'll know soon. Edit: actually starting 2/11? Doggone it, I hope N GA isn't going to be too warm again. Edit 2: 2/11: snow far SW NC, NW corner Sc, and extreme NE GA. Looking like a major CAD//ZR could be getting set up here shortly on this run. Edit 3: most of N GA misses out on fun, but far NE GA, NW SC, and W NC gets ~0.40" of qpf that would be wintry precip. of various types all on 2/11. So, this is closer in time. Keep that in mind. So, no Miller A on 2/12-13. Instead Miller B 2/11-12. High is at ~1038 mb at strongest, plenty strong enough to get back even into N GA as per climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 00z Euro seems to have tapped my inner weenie tonight. A hit from the second storm, too? Oh, boy. It was way too warm at 12z, so that's a substantial change. I'm not going to worry about details; I'm just glad it's showing something now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 00z Euro seems to have tapped my inner weenie tonight. A hit from the second storm, too? Oh, boy. It was way too warm at 12z, so that's a substantial change. I'm not going to worry about details; I'm just glad it's showing something now. Superjames, Yes, you get a very nice hit of snow to IP to ZR (congrats lol), but I strongly advise you and others to ignore the Euro's clown. It is bogus like usual and is counting all wintry precip. as snow lmao! I'm not even going to read off amounts from it. Based on the 850's, I estimate you get ~2-3" of snow. Then IP, then ZR. Snow-wise, far NE GA ~1". Mack (GSP) gets 1-2". W NC (west of Triad) gets 4-5", highest amount. Brick./RDU ~1-2" (he needs to be in bed with these weenie model runs being released.). Almost all snow falls 2/11. A fair amount of the IP/ZR falls 2/12. ATL-AHN pretty much shut out verbatim. N GA's chances would be better with a Miller A similar to the last five GFS runs on 2/12-13 imo. Regardless, I'm still concerned about a possible major ZR for N GA based on neutral negative ENSO climo. Edit: After taking another look, the Euro's low doesn't even quite make it to Miller B status as there's no redevelopment off the E coast. It is closer to a slightly west of Apps low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Superjames, Yes, you get a very nice hit of snow to IP to ZR (congrats lol), but I strongly advise you and others to ignore the Euro's clown. It is bogus like usual and is counting all wintry precip. as snow lmao! I'm not even going to read off amounts from it. Based on the 850's, I estimate you get ~2-3" of snow. Then IP, then ZR. Snow-wise, far NE GA ~1". Mack (GSP) gets 1-2". W NC (west of Triad) gets 4-5", highest amount. Brick./RDU ~1-2" (he needs to be in bed with these weenie model runs being released.). Almost all snow falls 2/11. A fair amount of the IP/ZR falls 2/12. ATL-AHN pretty much shut out verbatim. N GA's chances would be better with a Miller A similar to the last five GFS runs on 2/12-13 imo. Regardless, I'm still concerned about a possible major ZR for N GA based on neutral negative ENSO climo. Edit: After taking another look, the Euro's low doesn't even quite make it to Miller B status as there's no redevelopment off the E coast. It is closer to a slightly west of Apps low. Seems quite hard for the deep South to get much from this (you and I's area). Very encouraging seeing the Euro finally come on board with it's operational run for many though. I can't quite make it to stay up for the EPS members, but I bet some of them look great through N. GA, Upstate SC, and NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 12z runs will be interesting today. If they can keep that southern energy at about 90 hours out stronger and a little quicker than the energy out west NC and the upstate could be in play. Then the next one rolls through. They've been horrible this week though, but looking at the NAM it looks like it's going to start keeping that southern wave further south. We shall see but this is def. interesting to watch. Robert could be right after all if it tightens up and cuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 12z runs will be interesting today. If they can keep that southern energy at about 90 hours out stronger and a little quicker than the energy out west NC and the upstate could be in play. Then the next one rolls through. They've been horrible this week though, but looking at the NAM it looks like it's going to start keeping that southern wave further south. We shall see but this is def. interesting to watch. Robert could be right after all if it tightens up and cuts off.Hey Burger, what did the Euro do with the system? From reading above it looks like it gives nw nc some snow. Was it a miller a track? The MA crew was not happy with the run, so it might have been some type of southern slider? Too many possibilities on the table right now. The GFS still looks a mess with keeping the northern and southern stream totally separate. Today could be interesting or not. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yeah, and I was about to punt this, too. We'll see if it's a something to watch or just a fluke of a run. 2m temperatures are a little warm (looks like 33-34ish during precip?), but I'll just write that off to the Euro's warm bias and sleep soundly. Sometimes, you can't make this stuff up. The Euro actually was close at 12z, too, but it was too warm. Looks like the Euro brings through some flizzards into NC and maybe upstate SC on day 5, too. So the euro is on board and the nam as well(dryer)Hires nam looks better. Surprisingly the ggem is too for Friday morning. So I guess we can finally say its a safe bet that widespread light snow/rain for Friday morning for most of NC. 12z runs will be interesting today. If they can keep that southern energy at about 90 hours out stronger and a little quicker than the energy out west NC and the upstate could be in play. Then the next one rolls through. They've been horrible this week though, but looking at the NAM it looks like it's going to start keeping that southern wave further south. We shall see but this is def. interesting to watch. Robert could be right after all if it tightens up and cuts off. Haven't read lately from him.. but I'm assuming he thinks the GFS is too far west and may fall in line with a eastern track resembling the euro for this weekend? But still too warm for anything but rain outside the mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Hey Burger, what did the Euro do with the system? From reading above it looks like it gives nw nc some snow. Was it a miller a track? The MA crew was not happy with the run, so it might have been some type of southern slider? Too many possibilities on the table right now. The GFS still looks a mess with keeping the northern and southern stream totally separate. Today could be interesting or not. We shall see. It was far NW NC and there isn't much QPF to work with. It warms up fast once the low gets around us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 0z GFS looks to have a storm for 2/12-13, but will it stay at a low enough latitude and allow for it to be as cold as the prior 4 runs? We'll see! Edit: nice setup but cold rain N GA. EDIT 2: at least 5th GFS run in a row 2/12-3 with Miller A and cold high north of SE. Bears watching. Edit. 3: wintry precip. at least W NC 2/12! Major snow there! Edit 4: upstate SC and much of NC get huge hit. Hopefully Brick is in bed. Superjames and Mack get thrashed!! Crazy. Close to 20" in the triad. Fool me once........ TW Use this one. I like it even better!!! http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020500&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=216 The Euro clown gives James ~2" and the Brickster ~1" on 2/8. How 'bout dem apples! I'm awake now and I am loving the trends from last night. Looks like we could get a little something something this weekend to warm us up for the main event next week. Of course the cut off looks really sharp for the totals on the GFS map, but it still looks good. You can't deny the trends from last night were good. Hope it can keep going that way until next week. Only 9 days away now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 That is a long event per the 6z GFS for W NC... precip begins in the afternoon on the 11th and ends by the end of the day on the 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Sure is. Total, as shown on the 6z GFS is 1.31" for KFQD. 850 range from -2 at the start on the 11th to +1 on the 13th.... That is a long event per the 6z GFS for W NC... precip begins in the afternoon on the 11th and ends by the end of the day on the 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Well, even if these events don't pan out to be wintery, they sure look to be wet. Larry will like this image from the 6z GEFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 12z nam bringing that southern stream more northern with precip. coming into GA and SC at hr 36. Looks to be right on the freezing line. Edit: Turns into a good hit through hr 48 for Columbia but I am not convinced it will all be snow. This is a good run though because it is much more moist then past runs with a more northerly pull to the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Matthew East's Blog for today February 5th: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Atlanta snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 WRAL posted this on facebook this morning: http://www.wral.com/weather/page/1005530/?showmap=totalsnow They said 1893 was the most snow RDU has had in a season at 29.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 There's no moisture in the snow growth zone. At best, freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 For the last several days, the guidance has looked fairly atrocious in the long range. I don't particularly care exactly what the models are showing in terms of specific placement of features. It's more important to me whether or not they're *generally* and *consistently* showing or trending towards a good pattern or bad pattern AND if they *generally* fits the trends of other data. It seems most guidance has recently been showing a breakdown of the cold pattern, ending the prospects of any wintry weather for a while. This sort of thing is not uncommon in the winter at all. But this year, on many occasions, we have seen plenty of modeled breakdowns of the cold pattern, only to see the warm-ups/breakdowns either not verify or not last long. We may have been/be seeing that very thing now. The good Pacific that we've seen most of the winter looks to break down, with the Snow Hater GOA low ready to set up shop. But will it remain or will it be a transient feature with little staying power? I don't know, but my guess is that it won't stick around too long. Remember the SE ridge that was modeled along with the huge western trough, that just a few cycles ago? Where are they now? Below are the 240 0z GFS (top), the 240 0z Euro (middle), and the 240 0z Euro NH view (very bottom). They are in fairly good agreement for Day 10, all though the Euro's depiction looks a lot better. The Euro shows the GOA low a little SW of the GFS with a much nicer western ridge. The PV (as indicated by the red dots) has moved SE from western Canada and is moving into a good position. Very cold air is building in central in eastern Canada. The NH view shows the western ridging as well as some weak ridging building in across the pole. Will those two connect? There's also some ridging in the NAO region, but it's likely transient. Anyway, I'm not to keen on any fantasy CADs or snowstorms in the 144 hour range again. The pattern continues to support highs migrating out quickly and a fairly fast and energetic flow, fraught with High Killers (energy moving into the Lakes region, jacking up the confluence in the NE). The day 10 Euro would offer some better possibilities, IMO, if it is correct. We could sneak something in in the meantime, but in the current pattern, the odds favor us talking about another NE hit as we get closer to this next CAD/Miller A threat in about a week. The bottom line is that I don't think winter is over, and I think we'll start to see a better pattern emerge in the operationals and ensembles pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Atlanta snow? BL is horrible. That would be some damn cold rain Edit to add surface temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nice write up Cold Rain...I agree with highs migrating out quickly and we'll have to get lucky with the systems over the next week. The old needle and thread scenario. I also believe that winter is not over and as you mentioned, the LR is looking decent. Hopefully that'll continue to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Brother Ray at Raysweather says nothing this weekend, hold out for some snow on Tuesday. Too early to tell how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Can I get an AMEN for Brother Ray?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Can I get an AMEN for Brother Ray?! AMEN! O ye of little faith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 AMEN! O ye of little faith Well, if Brother Foothills and Brother Raleigh get on board, I'm all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Well, if Brother Foothills and Brother Raleigh get on board, I'm all in. Personally I'm waiting on Brother Ray AND Brother D-Von to both jump on board. Then, possibly, through a table. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 GFS showing some light snow across the SE Friday morning, even across ATL. Looks like PGV jackpots, again, with a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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