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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II


buckeyefan1

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Don't look now but the 12Z Euro is off the scale with the entire PV coming south into the GL, -32 at 850 as far south as central KY, -23 to ATL. Of course this may very well not happen, but entertaining to look at nonetheless...

 I'd like to look now but am traveling and don't have access to my Euro link.

 

Can you share a link I can see publicly, or post a map?

 

Thanks!

 

 

------

 

I think Jon just did.

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The euro is showing a nice storm cutting inland on 1/6.  With the PV dropping south it might not be able to cut inland like what's being shown.  I also have noticed the euro likes to bring storms inland lately only to change in future runs.  Just something to watch.

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The below link is to the 12z GFS snow accumulations at hour 264. I know accumulation maps are useless at this range but it does illustrate the cold pattern the model is depicting.

 

So a big question: Since the indices (NAO, PNA, and AO) look to be unfavorable, should we be "very" leary of the cold look any of the models are showing.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=12&model_dd=30&model_init_hh=12&fhour=264&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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Just throwing this out there...

 

Look familiar? The control "did" see this type of cold around same time (give or take 24hrs) on 12/28....While just about every OP & the GFS mean was seeing a EC ridgey situation around the same time period, if I remember correctly, especially the GFS. Even the Euro mean had no ridge out west hardly and a very widespread US trough although rather flat and not all that cold. Shows how the models continue to struggle here, especially with the cold we could potentially receive.

6tUZUrh.png

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The below link is to the 12z GFS snow accumulations at hour 264. I know accumulation maps are useless at this range but it does illustrate the cold pattern the model is depicting.

 

So a big question: Since the indices (NAO, PNA, and AO) look to be unfavorable, should we be "very" leary of the cold look any of the models are showing.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=12&model_dd=30&model_init_hh=12&fhour=264&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

 

It looks like there is ridging that pushes toward the pole in 3 different directions over the next 2 days that sets the wheels in motion for the arctic blast to come south - ridging north of Alaska, ridging from Greenland downstream of our Noreaster in a few days, and ridging from Scandinavia.  Then there is E Pacific ridging in play as well.  The Euro is the outlier right now with how far south the PV descends, but all of the modeling that I've seen shows some type of cold punch 

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Should this verify next Wednesday, this would be coldest since January 1985 arctic breakout for the NC Mountains

The graph below is for KTNB Boone at the 3000' level.

The higher elevations over 5000' would likely get into the -30f surface range.

Bx0AWCK.png

Update: Not confident about this verifying unless the European and GFS come into agreement into this upcoming weekend for next week.

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 Perhaps it is the storm on day 7? Maybe this is getting the TN Valley?

 

 

The TN Valley is crushed by the storm around day 7 with huge totals (for them).  Much of the state has a nice snowstorm, especially middle and west tn.  Time will tell.  Each consecutive run of the European has pushed the snow further south and east and reeled it in time wise.  Will be interesting to see if we have DRASTIC shifts with this system like we have had with the one for the 2nd or if the models will settle down a bit moving forward.

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It is EXTREMELY unlikely, maybe even impossible, that there would be any moisture around with what the 850mb temps are showing in that time frame because the air would have to be desert dry for us to achieve temps that low. This cold could be severe as depicted but will also be out pretty quickly with another less intense cold shot to follow several days later if the Euro is correct. That too would be a transient shot too unless the -NAO locks in, but no model is showing that potentiality

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It is EXTREMELY unlikely, maybe even impossible, that there would be any moisture around with what the 850mb temps are showing in that time frame because the air would have to be desert dry for us to achieve temps that low. This cold could be severe as depicted but will also be out pretty quickly with another less intense cold shot to follow several days later if the Euro is correct. That too would be a transient shot too unless the -NAO locks in, but no model is showing that potentiality

 

Agreed. The upshot is it takes so very little moisture for it to snow at those temps(as you know since you're a michigan native, I think). 

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12z Euro Ensemble Mean has the PV drop between Hudson Bay and the northern Great Lakes for comparison.

 

Grit,

 Would it be a correct assumption that since the operational run was so extreme climowise that it would be almost impossible for the ensemble mean of 50+ members to be as cold?

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Grit,

 Would it be a correct assumption that since the operational run was so extreme climowise that it would be almost impossible for the ensemble mean of 50+ members to be as cold?

 

Yeah that sounds like a good assessment GA.  Just checked out the 12z GFS Ensemble members on ewall.  Most of the members keep the PV between Hudson Bay and the northern Great Lakes.  2 of the 12 dropped it along the northern Great Lakes, and one dropped it into western PA (not sure why ewall only has 12 members since I believe there are 20).  Anyway, to me, being able to look at the individual members gives a better assessment as to the percent likelihood of an event occurring.

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