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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II


buckeyefan1

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---18z GFS ---

 

 

 

---12z GFS---

 

 

 

I said this in banter but I'll say it here even though it's purely speculative. It could be the GFS is picking up on this being a cutoff. I'm questioning what could possibly push it far enough south to help us out....but perhaps it's a step in that direction. 

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The 18z GFS is wonky and almost certainly wrong, but it's not that far away from a little something here.  Nice event for SW VA northward.  I'm sure it will be totally different at 00z.

 

Surface temperatures are pretty warm, but it's a tight gradient.  It's around 32 in Blacksburg while it's around 50 down here at hr 120.

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Folks,

 The 18Z GFS is at least the 4th GFS run in a row, in addition to the 12Z Euro, with at least a suggestion of a heightened threat for a Miller A'ish/CAD type of deal for ~2/12-3 fwiw. I'd keep this in the back of your minds for now.

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Folks,

 The 18Z GFS is at least the 4th GFS run in a row, in addition to the 12Z Euro, with at least a suggestion of a heightened threat for a Miller A'ish/CAD type of deal for ~2/12-3 fwiw. I'd keep this in the back of your minds for now.

 

The only thing that bothers me Larry is that this run is so weird looking early on, how can anything be close to right in later frames? How it reached a similar conclusion for around 12FEB on the 12z and 18z is beyond me.

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The only thing that bothers me Larry is that this run is so weird looking early on, how can anything be close to right in later frames? How it reached a similar conclusion for around 12FEB on the 12z and 18z is beyond me.

Greg,

Actually, it is at least the 4th GFS run in a row in addition to the latest Euro. Also, that's why I said you might want to keep it in the BACK of your mind, which is usually the case 8 days out. I fully understand what you're saying!

Regardless, the models absolutely should be ashamed of themselves lol.

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Folks,

 The 18Z GFS is at least the 4th GFS run in a row, in addition to the 12Z Euro, with at least a suggestion of a heightened threat for a Miller A'ish/CAD type of deal for ~2/12-3 fwiw. I'd keep this in the back of your minds for now.

 

I think I would like to see few more GFS runs as well as some support from Euro before buying anything, lol. There had been too many weenie runs only to lose it after 2nd or 3rd run last 2 weeks. Hopefully we get something out of 2/12 system, though :)

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I think I would like to see few more GFS runs as well as some support from Euro before buying anything, lol. There had been too many weenie runs only to lose it after 2nd or 3rd run last 2 weeks. Hopefully we get something out of 2/12 system, though :)

 

The Euro had the storm at 12z, FWIW.

 

The Euro Ensembles didn't appear to be buying it, though.

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Just happened to look at my folks 10 day forecast for Cincy. Ice and snow tonight followed by another brutally cold polar shot. Quite discouraging that we cant seem to buy 3-5 degrees off of that HP. Can we slide that puppy east please! We wouldnt need much to make these threats something to cherish for a while.

Meanwhile, my yard continues to ooze down the hill. Enough already!

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Greg,

Actually, it is at least the 4th GFS run in a row in addition to the latest Euro. Also, that's why I said you might want to keep it in the BACK of your mind, which is usually the case 8 days out. I fully understand what you're saying!

Regardless, the models absolutely should be ashamed of themselves lol.

 

It is bizarre and it's in the back of my mind. Keep up the good analysis, Larry.

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0z GFS looks to have a storm for 2/12-13, but will it stay at a low enough latitude and allow for it to be as cold as the prior 4 runs? We'll see!

Edit: nice setup but cold rain N GA.

EDIT 2: at least 5th GFS run in a row 2/12-3 with Miller A and cold high north of SE. Bears watching.

Edit. 3: wintry precip. at least W NC 2/12! Major snow there!

Edit 4: upstate SC and much of NC get huge hit. Hopefully Brick is in bed. Superjames and Mack get thrashed!!

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0z GFS looks to have a storm for 2/12-13, but will it stay at a low enough latitude and allow for it to be as cold as the prior 4 runs? We'll see!

Edit: nice setup but cold rain N GA.

EDIT 2: at least 5th GFS run in a row 2/12-3 with Miller A and cold high north of SE. Bears watching.

Edit. 3: wintry precip. at least W NC 2/12! Major snow there!

Wow, over an inch liquid for much of NC. Clown maps have a foot in the upstate. I can dream...but based on the variability of the GFS lately, I can't put much stock in it.

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I must be closing in one 100" of D7-10 snow this winter.  Cool!

 

It is something to watch, though.  I do expect the rug to get pulled out sooner or later, however.

 

The way the storm develops on the 00z GFS reminds me of Cold Rain's snowmance novel with the prolonged period of light snow ahead of the main event. :lol:

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Crazy.  Close to 20" in the triad.  Fool me once........

TW

 

Use this one.  I like it even better!!!

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020500&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=216

Interesting. The AmWx clown map has the hot spot in the upstate and southern mountains of NC. What causes the differences between the two?

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0z GFS looks to have a storm for 2/12-13, but will it stay at a low enough latitude and allow for it to be as cold as the prior 4 runs? We'll see!

Edit: nice setup but cold rain N GA.

EDIT 2: at least 5th GFS run in a row 2/12-3 with Miller A and cold high north of SE. Bears watching.

Edit. 3: wintry precip. at least W NC 2/12! Major snow there!

Edit 4: upstate SC and much of NC get huge hit. Hopefully Brick is in bed. Superjames and Mack get thrashed!!

Edit 5: I like all your edits!

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The ensemble run looks a bit further south and considerably warmer.

 

Jacob,

I hope I don't sound weenieish, but I respectfully disagree with your take on the GEFS overall. Whereas some panels do look warmer, others look colder to me. Also, I guess it depends on one's location. The bottom line for me is that this is the wettest of the last four GEFS and it has 0.50"+ for many area, which is quite impressive for 7-8 days away. I take this GEFS as good support for a 2/13-14 Miller A/CAD. For 7-8 days out, this looks pretty dern good. As I've said, I'd want to see N GA a little colder and I'd hope against a northward drift as we get closer.

Edit: Doctor on deck.

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Jacob,

I hope I don't sound weenieish, but I respectfully disagree with your take on the GEFS overall. Whereas some panels do look warmer, others look colder to me. Also, I guess it depends on one's location. The bottom line for me is that this is the wettest of the last four GEFS and it has 0.50"+ for many area, which is quite impressive for 7-8 days away. I take this GEFS as good support for a 2/13-14 Miller A/CAD. For 7-8 days out, this looks pretty dern good. As I've said, I'd want to see N GA a little colder and I'd hope against a northward drift as we get closer.

Edit: Doctor on deck.

Are you comparing to the last GEFS run or the 0z GFS? And I very possibly could be wrong! I just started model tracking and am not particularly skilled in this regard, so hopefully I don't throw people off making comments occasionally.

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LMAO.  The Euro is a hit for the western fringes.  Wow.  Accumulating snow along the I-85 corridor from my area up towards Richmond.  2-4", perhaps, around hr 90.  Accumulating snowfall goes down towards CLT, but it's less than an inch, I believe.  850s are kind of borderline, but they look okay on the fringes of the precip shield.

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