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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II


buckeyefan1

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Euro is a swing and miss for the NE as well. Wonder how JB will justify it today.  It's also showing the potential for a nice storm after this weekend. Given the model madness who knows what might actually happen.

Just looking on his twitter page he's showing of another eastern trough day 6.
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CAD threat 2/12 per 12Z Euro fwiw..the gfs has something similar fwiw.

I love how even a moderate cad can push those nasty 70's back up into their chute.  I was just getting up some wood, and my fingers got numb.  Nice rainy, drizzly cold feeling cad day down here.  So much for warm the next two weeks.  I'm busting my high temps by 5 degrees,  and even though there is still time, I don't feel too fearful of breaking 50.  Whenever there is cad, it probably will be colder, than these run to run "let's change things up" models come up with.  In Ga. a high in the mid 40's is a winters day...add cad, and many things are possible, but probably not warmth...certainly not a torch.   T

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So does mean we still have a shot or not at anything this weekend?

 

WXSOUTH@WxSouth 2 hrs
Model madness continues. None agree even 4 days out. European has 2 southern lows, with snow north edges Ark, Tn, NC VA . Handle west dif.

WXSOUTH@WxSouth 2 hrs
Upper energy out west handled differently on every model. Flow is messy.
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So does mean we still have a shot or not at anything this weekend?

WXSOUTH@WxSouth 2 hrs

Model madness continues. None agree even 4 days out. European has 2 southern lows, with snow north edges Ark, Tn, NC VA . Handle west dif.

WXSOUTH@WxSouth 2 hrs

Upper energy out west handled differently on every model. Flow is messy.

Robert is great but I think he missed this one pretty badly.

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Robert is great but I think he missed this one pretty badly.

 

Really?  The systems is 5 days out still.  If you could see the Euro 5h vorticity maps you could see how close it is to a monster, maybe not for GA/SC but for NC MTNs and up through the MA/NE.    Day 4 the Euro has a strong piece of southern energy in south TX and it has a strong piece of northern energy in CO that is dropping down and they never fully phase, they kind of tumble around together and you get these dual SLP's right after each other day 5/6.  Maybe that's right, maybe they fully phase and produce a beast, I will say that odds do favor something NW of here, but always fun to see a big one.

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Really? The systems is 5 days out still. If you could see the Euro 5h vorticity maps you could see how close it is to a monster, maybe not for GA/SC but for NC MTNs and up through the MA/NE. Day 4 the Euro has a strong piece of southern energy in south TX and it has a strong piece of northern energy in CO that is dropping down and they never fully phase, they kind of tumble around together and you get these dual SLP's right after each other day 5/6. Maybe that's right, maybe they fully phase and produce a beast, I will say that odds do favor something NW of here, but always fun to see a big one.

But it doesn't how a big one and I don't think a single model has bombed this yet. Not to mention this was supposed to be a 2/7-2/8 storm. Lastly you just described #4 or 5 on jburns list

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But it doesn't how a big one and I don't think a single model has bombed this yet. Not to mention this was supposed to be a 2/7-2/8 storm. Lastly you just described #4 or 5 on jburns list

 

My bad, we must be talking about different storms, this has always been a 2/9-10 storm.  There is a weak storm that tried to form off the coast on 2/7-8, that is not what Robert is talking about.

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Robert is great but I think he missed this one pretty badly.

 

I don't know. Really as horrible as the models look still potential for something to pop. Too much energy floating around in the jet stream with the main PV over eastern Canada and a displaced PV over the GOA. Its going to be a interesting case of Russian Roulette with the s/ws flowing through the jet.

 

Just looking at the 500mb flow on both nam,gfs which both technically don't show a large trough atm would be suggestive of a deep trough over the east. Again though too many s/ws flying around in a choatic scheme.

 

Really even though the models have lost the storm potential per say with the flow. Something may not be recongized till 24-48 hours out from the event.

post-7245-0-26838100-1391550946_thumb.gi

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GFS is a mess…from HPC this afternoon...

 

I PUT VERY LITTLE STOCK IN THE GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS...ESPECIALLY
THE SUB-970MB LOW SOLUTION OF THE 14/06Z GFS FOR TWO REASONS. AND
BOTH ARE TIED TO THE SAME PREMISE...A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW
ALOFT DAYS 3-4...WHICH THIS GFS RUN DELAYS TO THE POINT THAT IT'S
A GOOD 12-18 HOURS SLOWER UPSTREAM WITH THE SHARP TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ALLOWS MUCH MORE NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO THE EXITING SYSTEM (DAY 6)
SEEMS TO BE A STRETCH
. OVERALL...THAT SOLUTION WAS NOT SUPPORTIVE
OF EITHER THE GEFS OR ECENS MEANS. OVERALL...THE KEY TO THE
FORECAST REMAINS TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING (CURRENTLY OVER
THE YUKON)
. IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING...AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
TRULY ERODE THE WEST COAST RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. UNTIL
THEN...THE ECENS IS A DECENT GUIDANCE TOOL FOR DAYS 5-7.

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GFS is a mess…from HPC this afternoon...

 

I PUT VERY LITTLE STOCK IN THE GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS...ESPECIALLY

THE SUB-970MB LOW SOLUTION OF THE 14/06Z GFS FOR TWO REASONS. AND

BOTH ARE TIED TO THE SAME PREMISE...A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW

ALOFT DAYS 3-4...WHICH THIS GFS RUN DELAYS TO THE POINT THAT IT'S

A GOOD 12-18 HOURS SLOWER UPSTREAM WITH THE SHARP TROUGH MOVING

THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ALLOWS MUCH MORE NORTHERN STREAM

ENERGY TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO THE EXITING SYSTEM (DAY 6)

SEEMS TO BE A STRETCH. OVERALL...THAT SOLUTION WAS NOT SUPPORTIVE

OF EITHER THE GEFS OR ECENS MEANS. OVERALL...THE KEY TO THE

FORECAST REMAINS TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING (CURRENTLY OVER

THE YUKON). IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING...AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO

TRULY ERODE THE WEST COAST RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. UNTIL

THEN...THE ECENS IS A DECENT GUIDANCE TOOL FOR DAYS 5-7.

 

Just compare the 18z at 108 at 5h with the 12z at 114.....no big deal 18z is diving the energy south and 300 miles west of 12z while 12z has it going north and much further east.  :wacko:  It seems we get every solution except for one that looks good. 

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Just compare the 18z at 108 at 5h with the 12z at 114.....no big deal 18z is diving the energy south and 300 miles west of 12z while 12z has it going north and much further east.  :wacko:  It seems we get every solution except for one that looks good. 

 

Yep, just from 6 hours ago the changes are huge inside day 5.

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