GaWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 CAD threat 2/12 per 12Z Euro fwiw..the gfs has something similar fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 CAD threat 2/12 per 12Z Euro fwiw..the gfs has something similar fwiw.It looks alot colder after this weekend, so maybe something can work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 CAD threat 2/12 per 12Z Euro fwiw..the gfs has something similar fwiw. Well, that is within 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Burger, how did the first wave look for Friday? The MA crew is indicating that it's amped up a bit more than the last run. Any hope for us there? It's pretty "meh" on that first wave on the surface. It does have possibly some backside flurries on Sunday for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Any thoughts on Thursday for se nc looks like some moisture with temps real close to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Also looking for more info on Euro for middle of next week. You can't just say CAD on euro and leave it there! Thanks, TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro is a swing and miss for the NE as well. Wonder how JB will justify it today. It's also showing the potential for a nice storm after this weekend. Given the model madness who knows what might actually happen.Just looking on his twitter page he's showing of another eastern trough day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Winter just getting ready to start here in the south. Make sure you got some snow boots!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Also looking for more info on Euro for middle of next week. You can't just say CAD on euro and leave it there! Thanks, TW Here you go buddy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 CAD threat 2/12 per 12Z Euro fwiw..the gfs has something similar fwiw. This looks a lot more credible and way less discombobulated to me! Euro and GFS look pretty close....right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 CAD threat 2/12 per 12Z Euro fwiw..the gfs has something similar fwiw. I love how even a moderate cad can push those nasty 70's back up into their chute. I was just getting up some wood, and my fingers got numb. Nice rainy, drizzly cold feeling cad day down here. So much for warm the next two weeks. I'm busting my high temps by 5 degrees, and even though there is still time, I don't feel too fearful of breaking 50. Whenever there is cad, it probably will be colder, than these run to run "let's change things up" models come up with. In Ga. a high in the mid 40's is a winters day...add cad, and many things are possible, but probably not warmth...certainly not a torch. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Whats the qpf totals like on the euro for Thursday night and between hour 96-120? Euro has an upper level disturbance tracking through parts of NC Thursday night Parts of NW NC/VA appear to stay below freezing 850 temp wise this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Whats the qpf totals like on the euro for Thursday night and between hour 96-120? Euro has an upper level disturbance tracking through parts of NC Thursday night Parts of NW NC/VA appear to stay below freezing 850 temp wise this weekend. Maybe .10 and SFC temps are very suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Here you go buddy: Hilarious! Thanks for the run down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Maybe .10 and SFC temps are very suspect. Oh thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So does mean we still have a shot or not at anything this weekend? WXSOUTH @WxSouth 2 hrsModel madness continues. None agree even 4 days out. European has 2 southern lows, with snow north edges Ark, Tn, NC VA . Handle west dif.WXSOUTH @WxSouth 2 hrsUpper energy out west handled differently on every model. Flow is messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So does mean we still have a shot or not at anything this weekend? WXSOUTH @WxSouth 2 hrs Model madness continues. None agree even 4 days out. European has 2 southern lows, with snow north edges Ark, Tn, NC VA . Handle west dif. WXSOUTH @WxSouth 2 hrs Upper energy out west handled differently on every model. Flow is messy. Robert is great but I think he missed this one pretty badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hilarious! Thanks for the run down. Haha, for sure. The Euro looks like you might pick up a little snow around 96 or so, but I can't see the QPF maps. 850s would support it, but I only see the 24 hour maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Robert is great but I think he missed this one pretty badly. Really? The systems is 5 days out still. If you could see the Euro 5h vorticity maps you could see how close it is to a monster, maybe not for GA/SC but for NC MTNs and up through the MA/NE. Day 4 the Euro has a strong piece of southern energy in south TX and it has a strong piece of northern energy in CO that is dropping down and they never fully phase, they kind of tumble around together and you get these dual SLP's right after each other day 5/6. Maybe that's right, maybe they fully phase and produce a beast, I will say that odds do favor something NW of here, but always fun to see a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Really? The systems is 5 days out still. If you could see the Euro 5h vorticity maps you could see how close it is to a monster, maybe not for GA/SC but for NC MTNs and up through the MA/NE. Day 4 the Euro has a strong piece of southern energy in south TX and it has a strong piece of northern energy in CO that is dropping down and they never fully phase, they kind of tumble around together and you get these dual SLP's right after each other day 5/6. Maybe that's right, maybe they fully phase and produce a beast, I will say that odds do favor something NW of here, but always fun to see a big one. But it doesn't how a big one and I don't think a single model has bombed this yet. Not to mention this was supposed to be a 2/7-2/8 storm. Lastly you just described #4 or 5 on jburns list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 But it doesn't how a big one and I don't think a single model has bombed this yet. Not to mention this was supposed to be a 2/7-2/8 storm. Lastly you just described #4 or 5 on jburns list My bad, we must be talking about different storms, this has always been a 2/9-10 storm. There is a weak storm that tried to form off the coast on 2/7-8, that is not what Robert is talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 My bad, we must be talking about different storms, this has always been a 2/9-10 storm. There is a weak storm that tried to form off the coast on 2/7-8, that is not what Robert is talking about. We agree to disagree. Neither storm is really impressive from a SE perspective IMO Including NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 We agree to disagree. Neither storm is really impressive from a SE perspective IMO Including NC I agree with you, it's not snowing in Atlanta this weekend, that's about all we know. This was the 12z GFS, way to far north with the primary... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I agree with you, it's not snowing in Atlanta this weekend, that's about all we know. This was the 12z GFS, way to far north with the primary... I'm not talking about just Atlanta. This is not a winner for this forum IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Well add the 18z into the mix with another solution. 5h looks different from the 12z run. Hard to say where it will go and I don't even want to guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Robert is great but I think he missed this one pretty badly. I don't know. Really as horrible as the models look still potential for something to pop. Too much energy floating around in the jet stream with the main PV over eastern Canada and a displaced PV over the GOA. Its going to be a interesting case of Russian Roulette with the s/ws flowing through the jet. Just looking at the 500mb flow on both nam,gfs which both technically don't show a large trough atm would be suggestive of a deep trough over the east. Again though too many s/ws flying around in a choatic scheme. Really even though the models have lost the storm potential per say with the flow. Something may not be recongized till 24-48 hours out from the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS is a mess…from HPC this afternoon... I PUT VERY LITTLE STOCK IN THE GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS...ESPECIALLYTHE SUB-970MB LOW SOLUTION OF THE 14/06Z GFS FOR TWO REASONS. ANDBOTH ARE TIED TO THE SAME PREMISE...A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED FLOWALOFT DAYS 3-4...WHICH THIS GFS RUN DELAYS TO THE POINT THAT IT'SA GOOD 12-18 HOURS SLOWER UPSTREAM WITH THE SHARP TROUGH MOVINGTHROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ALLOWS MUCH MORE NORTHERN STREAMENERGY TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO THE EXITING SYSTEM (DAY 6)SEEMS TO BE A STRETCH. OVERALL...THAT SOLUTION WAS NOT SUPPORTIVEOF EITHER THE GEFS OR ECENS MEANS. OVERALL...THE KEY TO THEFORECAST REMAINS TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING (CURRENTLY OVERTHE YUKON). IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING...AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TOTRULY ERODE THE WEST COAST RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. UNTILTHEN...THE ECENS IS A DECENT GUIDANCE TOOL FOR DAYS 5-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS is a mess…from HPC this afternoon... I PUT VERY LITTLE STOCK IN THE GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE SUB-970MB LOW SOLUTION OF THE 14/06Z GFS FOR TWO REASONS. AND BOTH ARE TIED TO THE SAME PREMISE...A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT DAYS 3-4...WHICH THIS GFS RUN DELAYS TO THE POINT THAT IT'S A GOOD 12-18 HOURS SLOWER UPSTREAM WITH THE SHARP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ALLOWS MUCH MORE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO THE EXITING SYSTEM (DAY 6) SEEMS TO BE A STRETCH. OVERALL...THAT SOLUTION WAS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF EITHER THE GEFS OR ECENS MEANS. OVERALL...THE KEY TO THE FORECAST REMAINS TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING (CURRENTLY OVER THE YUKON). IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING...AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO TRULY ERODE THE WEST COAST RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. UNTIL THEN...THE ECENS IS A DECENT GUIDANCE TOOL FOR DAYS 5-7. Just compare the 18z at 108 at 5h with the 12z at 114.....no big deal 18z is diving the energy south and 300 miles west of 12z while 12z has it going north and much further east. It seems we get every solution except for one that looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just compare the 18z at 108 at 5h with the 12z at 114.....no big deal 18z is diving the energy south and 300 miles west of 12z while 12z has it going north and much further east. It seems we get every solution except for one that looks good. Yep, just from 6 hours ago the changes are huge inside day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ---18z GFS --- ---12z GFS--- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.