rduwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like the gfs focuses on the energy cutting across the lakes and some phasing going on w/ the southern energy. This forces the the northern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That energy out west at 144 might have some potential though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Brother Joe Bastardi still makes his case this morning for a big storm just offshore of the bite of New Jersey and New England this weekend with all appreciable frozen precipitation staying north of the Mason Dixon Line. Stop posting subscribers only links for JB or any other link that does not contain public information Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That energy out west at 144 might have some potential though. Yeah, I've been watching that also...Hopefully we can keep some cold air around for it. Truncation has ruined it the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Stop posting subscribers only links for JB or any other link that does not contain public information Can we still post what Robert says at WxSouth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'll gladly take the setup on the GFS after this weekend. Cold air funneling in with energy out west moving east and digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Can we still post what Robert says at WxSouth? As long as it's public information and relevant to the discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'll gladly take the setup on the GFS after this weekend. Cold air funneling in with energy out west moving east and digging. So we are going to punt this weekend and look to next week now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So we are going to punt this weekend and look to next week now? That's up to you. I'm just saying what the GFS has which will probably change tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So we are going to punt this weekend and look to next week now? No...We can look at two storms. I know it's crazy but that's how we roll! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The GFS looks like it's about to get good but it's so far out in la la land you can basically throw it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS showing blocking baby! Oh wait, it's way out near Valentine's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS showing blocking baby! Oh wait, it's way out near Valentine's Day. One thing seems for sure. If the GFS is showing a sustained torch in 10 days it's still probably going to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The 12z Canadian has a weak low off of the SC coast at hr 108. Precipitation doesn't get far inland and temperatures appear too warm, though. Then it goes out to sea and misses everyone. EDIT: The 12z UKMET appears to go out to sea. No clue on temperatures or precipitation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The 12z Canadian has a weak low off of the SC coast at hr 108. Precipitation doesn't get far inland and temperatures appear too warm, though. Then it goes out to sea and misses everyone. Goes to say, I still think anything is possible with this system. Anything from a cold rain, ice, or snow. And I'm speaking about western half of NC with this post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 12m @RyanMaue likely too far north.. usual GFS cold feet waffling Pattern argues for secondary and major deepening.. ridge goes to trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 My problem with this setup is you're relying on so many things to go right. Is there a good High? Is the energy in the right place? How long does the high stay around? Is phasing going to wreak havoc? We need what the GFS is showing after this weekend, where you have enough cold air in place and a system moving due east. If it speeds up and is stronger then you have something that's a much safer bet for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This probably doesn’t mean anything, but the navgem has been consisently showing a decent slug of moisture moving through GA/SC/NC thursday night/friday morning. Verbatim, I think it’s dropping 2 to 4 inches of snow across northern GA/SC and most of NC. This is intriguing to me as the NAVGEM is normally overly suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 My problem with this setup is you're relying on so many things to go right. Is there a good High? Is the energy in the right place? How long does the high stay around? Is phasing going to wreak havoc? We need what the GFS is showing after this weekend, where you have enough cold air in place and a system moving due east. If it speeds up and is stronger then you have something that's a much safer bet for snow lovers. The potential event next week is really not far off; looks to start about mid-week. Your right this is a much better setup where things don't have to be perfect. I think the best thing for us to do the next few days is determine if this cold air setup is for real. Then this weekend we may be in business (hopefully) to track a good winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This probably doesn’t mean anything, but the navgem has been consisently showing a decent slug of moisture moving through GA/SC/NC thursday night/friday morning. Verbatim, I think it’s dropping 2 to 4 inches of snow across northern GA/SC and most of NC. This is intriguing to me as the NAVGEM is normally overly suppressed. The NAM is with it to a point showing precip through N. SC through SE NC. Looks like it would be close to snow for some if surface temps are not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 My problem with this setup is you're relying on so many things to go right. Is there a good High? Is the energy in the right place? How long does the high stay around? Is phasing going to wreak havoc? We need what the GFS is showing after this weekend, where you have enough cold air in place and a system moving due east. If it speeds up and is stronger then you have something that's a much safer bet for snow lovers.Agreed 100%. Going back to what I said when the models first showed the miller B, I think they figured this one out early as far as impact of wintry precip and it leaves must of us in the dust outside the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 oh well on to the next storm next week. I was hoping the models would come around small event thursday and friday and bigger event sunday and monday. just not our year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wow, that one vanished quickly. I don't think I've ever seen such a sudden change like that before. I suppose the lack of Atlantic blocking is the reason here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 DT's latest post is to forget the 10-20th as indices are downright hostile. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think the indices have been hostile all winter, so sounds like more of the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So, Brad Panovich does not see what all the fuss is about concerning "Winter is Over" after this week. Within the first two minutes of today's video update, he vehemently disagrees with that position. This video was posted before the 12Z guidance this morning, but for this weekend's potential, he was already pretty bearish on snow for the Carolinas, outside of the mountains: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I don't know about winter being over, but I think folks get caught up in the whole history of February being the snowiest month for NC. It might be that way in the overall average, but it hasn't been that way here since 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 DT said the upper low that is forecast to set up in or near the GOA will make the pattern unfavorable for winter weather. He must have seen my post this morning. If that feature sets up in that spot, he will be correct. He did not say winter is over, though. The 12z GFS shows this setting up around hour 228 and persisting through the end of the run. The 6z dropped it in there around 204 and kept it there through the end of the run. The 0z was about the same as the 6z, except it moved around some, making for a tiny bit of a better pattern across the US. The 0z Euro had it just a bit west, over the Aleutians around 240. Either way, it has the US being hit with Pacific flow. The Canadian had...IT DOESN'T MATTER what the Canadian had! I have no idea how the Euro ensembles looked. Bottom line, if we have a strong vortex parked over/near the GOA, we should look for a new hobby for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro is a swing and miss for the NE as well. Wonder how JB will justify it today. It's also showing the potential for a nice storm after this weekend. Given the model madness who knows what might actually happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Burger, how did the first wave look for Friday? The MA crew is indicating that it's amped up a bit more than the last run. Any hope for us there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.