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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II


buckeyefan1

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Brother Joe Bastardi still makes his case this morning for a big storm just offshore of the bite of New Jersey and New England this weekend with all appreciable frozen precipitation staying north of the Mason Dixon Line.

Stop posting subscribers only links for JB or any other link that does not contain public information  <_<

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The 12z Canadian has a weak low off of the SC coast at hr 108. Precipitation doesn't get far inland and temperatures appear too warm, though. Then it goes out to sea and misses everyone.

Goes to say, I still think anything is possible with this system. Anything from a cold rain, ice, or snow. And I'm speaking about western half of NC with this post

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My problem with this setup is you're relying on so many things to go right. Is there a good High? Is the energy in the right place? How long does the high stay around? Is phasing going to wreak havoc? We need what the GFS is showing after this weekend, where you have enough cold air in place and a system moving due east. If it speeds up and is stronger then you have something that's a much safer bet for snow lovers. 

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This probably doesn’t mean anything, but the navgem has been consisently showing a decent slug of moisture moving through GA/SC/NC thursday night/friday morning.  Verbatim, I think it’s dropping 2 to 4 inches of snow across northern GA/SC and most of NC.

 

This is intriguing to me as the NAVGEM is normally overly suppressed.

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My problem with this setup is you're relying on so many things to go right. Is there a good High? Is the energy in the right place? How long does the high stay around? Is phasing going to wreak havoc? We need what the GFS is showing after this weekend, where you have enough cold air in place and a system moving due east. If it speeds up and is stronger then you have something that's a much safer bet for snow lovers. 

 

The potential event next week is really not far off; looks to start about mid-week. Your right this is a much better setup where things don't have to be perfect. I think the best thing for us to do the next few days is determine if this cold air setup is for real. Then this weekend we may be in business (hopefully) to track a good winter storm.

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This probably doesn’t mean anything, but the navgem has been consisently showing a decent slug of moisture moving through GA/SC/NC thursday night/friday morning.  Verbatim, I think it’s dropping 2 to 4 inches of snow across northern GA/SC and most of NC.

 

This is intriguing to me as the NAVGEM is normally overly suppressed.

The NAM is with it to a point showing precip through N. SC through SE NC. Looks like it would be close to snow for some if surface temps are not too bad.

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My problem with this setup is you're relying on so many things to go right. Is there a good High? Is the energy in the right place? How long does the high stay around? Is phasing going to wreak havoc? We need what the GFS is showing after this weekend, where you have enough cold air in place and a system moving due east. If it speeds up and is stronger then you have something that's a much safer bet for snow lovers.

Agreed 100%. Going back to what I said when the models first showed the miller B, I think they figured this one out early as far as impact of wintry precip and it leaves must of us in the dust outside the mountains.
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So, Brad Panovich does not see what all the fuss is about concerning "Winter is Over" after this week.  Within the first two minutes of today's video update, he vehemently disagrees with that position.  This video was posted before the 12Z guidance this morning, but for this weekend's potential, he was already pretty bearish on snow for the Carolinas, outside of the mountains:

 

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DT said the upper low that is forecast to set up in or near the GOA will make the pattern unfavorable for winter weather. He must have seen my post this morning. :) If that feature sets up in that spot, he will be correct. He did not say winter is over, though.

The 12z GFS shows this setting up around hour 228 and persisting through the end of the run.

The 6z dropped it in there around 204 and kept it there through the end of the run.

The 0z was about the same as the 6z, except it moved around some, making for a tiny bit of a better pattern across the US.

The 0z Euro had it just a bit west, over the Aleutians around 240. Either way, it has the US being hit with Pacific flow.

The Canadian had...IT DOESN'T MATTER what the Canadian had!

I have no idea how the Euro ensembles looked.

Bottom line, if we have a strong vortex parked over/near the GOA, we should look for a new hobby for a while.

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