AirNelson39 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Doesn't look to bad for the Mnts. Looks like a good one for most of the MA but, wow it explodes & just crushes the NE. HR 132 1009 L just SE of Charlotte. HR 153 967 L E of Cape Cod. Am I reading this correctly? Yes you are. Just looking at the 850mb map with precip the NC mtns do look to get hit pretty good but that's without looking at surface temps or at the entire column. Also looks like some upslope for the mtns as the storm blows up going up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6z gfs ensemble mean says we are back to the big miller b solution. Yuck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6z gfs ensemble mean says we are back to the big miller b solution. Yuck!Unbelievable inconsistency from all of the models the last two days. Sundays runs were miller B, Mondays runs were miller a, and today's so far are miller B again. Ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 SREF plumes are getting interesting once again. Franklin mentioned the SREF mean last night. Here are the plumes for KHKY. Thursday night into Friday morning needs to be monitored: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 SREF plumes are getting interesting once again. Franklin mentioned the SREF mean last night. Here are the plumes for KHKY. Thursday night into Friday morning needs to be monitored: Calculus what kind of threat are we looking at here? I've been so wrapped up with this weekends storm I keep seeing little tidbits on this Thurs night Fri morning threat? Are any of the global models concurring with the SREF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Only one GFS run shows snow at tail end for RDU. 00Z http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KRDU&model=gfs&time=2014020400&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The LR looks maybe a bit better than it did the last few days. The trend is in the right direction at least. I don't see any real winter storm pattern setting up anytime soon, but at least with Canada cold and a few elements trying to get in place, we won't be totally out of the game. The 0z and 6z 324 hr GFS and the CPC index charts are below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Calculus what kind of threat are we looking at here? I've been so wrapped up with this weekends storm I keep seeing little tidbits on this Thurs night Fri morning threat? Are any of the global models concurring with the SREF? The threat appears to be better the further south that you are. I don't think VA will see much out of this. I really doubt whether I will too, though. A few of yesterday's NAM runs had the 0 C 850 mb line hugging the NC/SC border with a little bit of light precip edging up that way. Subsequent runs of the NAM seem to have shifted the axis of precip further south. Here is the 00Z NAM valid at 84 Hours: Here is the 06Z NAM valid at 81 Hours: The 12Z NAM is running as we type. We'll see what she says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 At least the 00z NAM was a bit colder. Maybe a harbinger of things to come for the weekend. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Matthew East's Blog for today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 SREF plumes are getting interesting once again. Franklin mentioned the SREF mean last night. Here are the plumes for KHKY. Thursday night into Friday morning needs to be monitored: SREF plumes are getting interesting once again. Franklin mentioned the SREF mean last night. Here are the plumes for KHKY. Thursday night into Friday morning needs to be monitored: Calculus what kind of threat are we looking at here? I've been so wrapped up with this weekends storm I keep seeing little tidbits on this Thurs night Fri morning threat? Are any of the global models concurring with the SREF? Friday does look interesting really. Lastest run of SREF has backed off with the extreme runs. But plumes have been showing a .25-.5" Really two things that seem uncertain to me is how far south does the front go and how much over running assoicated with it. Another thing is how much embedded 500mb vorticity comes out. Nam shows better vorticity north of the front while gfs not so much. You can see the reflection of interaction by looking at the rh charts. GFS is also further south with the front leading to less interaction with the embedded vorticity in the jet stream. Nam has the front further north. Nam GFS I have a hunch over the last few runs that the progression of the front is probably pushed too far south. Which we could see the models trend wetter and a N/W trend eventually. Depending on how much embedded energy comes to interact with the front. I think Friday the potential still on the table for areas of light snow over parts of TN/NC/SC/VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Friday does look interesting really. Lastest run of SREF has backed off with the extreme runs. But plumes have been showing a .25-.5" Really two things that seem uncertain to me is how far south does the front go and how much over running assoicated with it. Another thing is how much embedded 500mb vorticity comes out. Nam shows better vorticity north of the front while gfs not so much. You can see the reflection of interaction by looking at the rh charts. GFS is also further south with the front leading to less interaction with the embedded vorticity in the jet stream. Nam has the front further north. I have a hunch over the last few runs that the progression of the front is probably pushed too far south. Which we could see the models trend wetter and a N/W trend eventually. Depending on how much embedded energy comes to interact with the front. I think Friday the potential still on the table for areas of light snow over parts of TN/NC/SC/VA The recent trend has certainly been drier, with the front making it farther south. Any northward movement would allow the precipitation to be farther north but would also risk the marginal cold air not being cold enough. This one is tight rope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The recent trend has certainly been drier, with the front making it farther south. Any northward movement would allow the precipitation to be farther north but would also risk the marginal cold air not being cold enough. This one is tight rope. Yeah it is a double edge sword but shall be interesting watch the trends over the next 48-60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Brother Joe Bastardi still makes his case this morning for a big storm just offshore of the bite of New Jersey and New England this weekend with all appreciable frozen precipitation staying north of the Mason Dixon Line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Brother Joe Bastardi still makes his case this morning for a big storm just offshore of the bite of New Jersey and New England this weekend. http://www.weatherbell.com/videos/tuesday-atmospheric-avenger-28/ Does he think it will be a miller B transfer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 138 hr - 2/4/06z GFS - is this a glimmer of hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 138 hr - 2/4/06z GFS - is this a glimmer of hope? I believe you're looking at a classic case of cold chasing moisture on that frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Models are all over the place with the weekend system. Looks like we won't know anythign for sure until later this week. There aren't even really any trends one way or the the other with the way they have been so different from run to run the last two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Only out to 78 but it looks like this is going to again be a different solution from the GFS over the past two runs. It's digging that energy into TX more and being faster with it. As a by product it isn't phasing as much with the energy in the NW like 00z and 6z had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 12z doesn't look like it's gonna cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS has this energy almost in MN at 108, euro has it in north TX. Either the GFS is really good or really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Haha! We've been had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Only out to 78 but it looks like this is going to again be a different solution from the GFS over the past two runs. It's digging that energy into TX more and being faster with it. As a by product it isn't phasing as much with the energy in the NW like 00z and 6z had. GFS has this energy almost in MN at 108, euro has it in north TX. Either the GFS is really good or really bad.Don't have the ability to look at the GFS on my phone, so I'm confused. How can both of these statements be true? Is the energy in Tx or MN or are we talking about 2 separate pieces of energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS @132 could have some snow flurries across NC. Hard to tell if it's just cold chasing moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Don't have the ability to look at the GFS on my phone, so I'm confused. How can both of these statements be true? Is the energy in Tx or MN or are we talking about 2 separate pieces of energy? It's obviously in Nebraska. :arrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Don't have the ability to look at the GFS on my phone, so I'm confused. How can both of these statements be true? Is the energy in Tx or MN or are we talking about 2 separate pieces of energy? Two completely different systems. The "big dog" one is the one that Pack mentioned at 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Don't have the ability to look at the GFS on my phone, so I'm confused. How can both of these statements be true? Is the energy in Tx or MN or are we talking about 2 separate pieces of energy? Burger was talking about the smaller Fri/Sat system, I was talking about the bigger potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ok...gotcha thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Don't have the ability to look at the GFS on my phone, so I'm confused. How can both of these statements be true? Is the energy in Tx or MN or are we talking about 2 separate pieces of energy? Their both true because we're talking about different pieces. On previous runs that energy I was speaking of in TX was helping pull down the energy in the NW by phasing it. The Euro does something completely different by breaking off from the northern branch and letting the (later) energy dig and move east. The piece I was referring to on the GFS really has nothing to do with the Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I mean moisture and 850s look good for my area on hr 129 and 132 but I just don't buy anything any model is spitting out right now the runs are whack. Between those two hours listed above VA has about a 1/2" qpf no idea what upstairs looks like but I guess it's a start. Not holding my breath that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.