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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II


buckeyefan1

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  On 2/4/2014 at 4:04 AM, rduwx said:

Yeah, to be honest I can't tell if I like it or not looking at 5h.

 

It's a big change. Not apt to look deep into unless the others follow suit.

 

It's gone from big storm to no storm at all.

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  On 2/4/2014 at 4:11 AM, superjames1992 said:

LOL.  No storm at all.  Good model consistency.

 

There is still a storm I'm just not sure how to explain it.  It looked completely different than previous runs.  Someone smarter than me will have to explain...LOL!

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  On 2/4/2014 at 4:15 AM, rduwx said:

There is still a storm I'm just not sure how to explain it.  It looked completely different than previous runs.  Someone smarter than me will have to explain...LOL!

 

Yeah, I see it now.  Weird looking storm...  Looks like it actually manages to scrape us with the deformation band and gives us some accumulating backside snow, LMAO.  Of course, it crushes DC.

 

I'm going to toss this run for now...

 

Hey, I'll take it over a cutter (I think?).

 

WTH is this mess?

 

7mt2.gif

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  On 2/4/2014 at 4:19 AM, mackerel_sky said:

So no low showing up in the lakes? I think that was cr # 1 item to look for! No lakes low= good

 

It really looked different than any previous run at 5h.  As Wow said, I'd have to put this run on the back burner until other models showed this solution.  But to answer your question there was some energy around the lakes but the storm was later so I don't think it influenced it as much.

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  On 2/4/2014 at 4:40 AM, tarheelwx said:

Does it look like anything happens after 144?  Also, is there cold air around at 120 and 144? 

TW

 

The Canadian is definitely a miss, I'd think.  There's a 1010(ish) mb LP way, way out to sea at hr 150.  The frames before hr 150 aren't available yet (the panels come out in a weird order on this site).

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014020400/gemnh-0-6.png

 

The UKMet might be close enough to give us some love, though I doubt it and don't know about temperatures.  It's definitely too far out to sea at hr 144, but I don't know what happens between 120-144.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014020400/UN144-21.GIF?04-05

 

Better maps should be out soon.

 

EDIT: Oh, looks like the Canadian does have a storm at day 5, but it's wide right.

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif

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Well, the Euro split our storm into two lows and took them both OTS.  However, we didn't escape without a little rain with temperatures in the 30s.  Wacky.  It's torching at 850 mb (the 5C isotherm runs along the I-85 corridor between GSO and Durham at hr 120), unfortunately, and 2m temperatures look to be in the mid to upper 30s.  No one north of Richmond really gets anything (at least through hr 120).

 

I guess it's yet another wildly different solution.

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  On 2/4/2014 at 10:39 AM, AirNelson39 said:

6z gfs has a closed low that moves through Kentucky with a transfer to a low over Charlotte. Lots of moisture and it looks to pound the mid Atlantic. Looks too warm for most of NC though with a 1028mb high over eastern Canada

 

Doesn't look to bad for the Mnts. Looks like a good one for most of the MA but, wow it explodes & just crushes the NE. HR 132 1009 L just SE of Charlotte. HR 153 967 L E of Cape Cod. Am I reading this correctly?

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