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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II


buckeyefan1

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another well respected weather man i was reading his thoughts now thinks it will be a rain event for us in the Carolinas this weekend. we just can't seem to buy a good old fashioned snowstorm!!!! got the have the storm track to the south of us and will be lacking in cold air.....

You can buy a snow storm, just need to buy a ticket to Boston!

I like the set up . You have one more storm to get past this week and then I think the models will then hone in.

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You can buy a snow storm, just need to buy a ticket to Boston!

I like the set up . You have one more storm to get past this week and then I think the models will then hone in.

hone in on what? they already honed in on rain!!!  lol   I'm ready for spring, and after this cold rain this weekend we'll all be ready for spring, ready or not here it comes!!! :sun:  ;)  But I would love to see one goodern before spring sets in!

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You can buy a snow storm, just need to buy a ticket to Boston!

I like the set up . You have one more storm to get past this week and then I think the models will then hone in.

I'm there with ya Pilot.  So much is really close.  Somebody made a post about the Euro ensembles and RDU.  If he had his facts straight, then there is some reason to be optimistic.  Seems like the ensembles are east of the Ops.  Also, if half the members had snow for RDU, I'd have to think that it would be a good deal higher here in the triad and growing steadily as you move west. 

TW

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The mets at GSP readily admit that there are many options still on the table:

 

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST MONDAY...THE LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE THERMAL-PROFILE/QPF AMOUNTS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME DEGREE OF DIVERGENCE WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK/TIMING OF A
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE PREDOMINATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT THU NIGHT
INTO SAT AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PREVAILS OFF THE SE COAST WHILE A
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE FASTER
ECMWF LIFTS THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SE STATES BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND 00Z
MON WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 6-12 HRS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF.

AT THE SURFACE...MODELS AGREE THAT 1030+ MB CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE NE STATES THU NIGHT SETTING UP A SOLID CAD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEW 00Z ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS
IN REGARDS TO THE THERMAL-PROFILE. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF
SHOWED A DEEP WARM NOSE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. HOWEVER...THE NEW ECMWF
SOUNDINGS IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS WITH MUCH COLDER THERMAL ALOFT. THE
GFS SOUNDING SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A SEEDER FEEDER EFFECT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION YIELDING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WITH SNOW/RAIN MIX SOUTH OF I-85 CORRIDOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED QPF VALUES PER BOTH MODELS...HAVE
CARRIED LOW END CHANCE POP THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THEN ANY WINTRY
PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPS. FOR SAT...THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT INCREASING
MOIST UPGLIDE WITH A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCE RIPPLING IN SWLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE CWA. THERMAL
PROFILE ACROSS THE REGION LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EVENT. POPS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO INCREASE A BIT ON SAT AS MODELS TRENDED A BIT
WETTER.

THINGS ARE GETTING INTERESTING BEYOND SAT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NE ACROSS THE SE STATES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. THE
GFS SUGGESTS A MILLER B TYPE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SE WHILE THE
ECMWF FEATURES A MILLER A-TYPE LOW LIFTING NE ALONG THE I-85
CORRIDOR. IN ANY CASE...THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR A COLD
RAIN EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT HIGHER RIDGE TOPS OF THE
NC MTNS WHERE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. IF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW TRACKS A BIT SOUTH OF THE AREA...WE MAY SEE
WINTRY PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE EVENT AS MUCH COLDER AIRMASS SPILLS IN
NORTH OF THE LOW.


PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PULLS NE AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS MUCH
COLD AIRMASS INVADES BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...WE MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIP EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ENDING BY MIDDAY.
HOWEVER..CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

 

Sounds to me like something still worth watching...  :whistle:

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I'm there with ya Pilot.  So much is really close.  Somebody made a post about the Euro ensembles and RDU.  If he had his facts straight, then there is some reason to be optimistic.  Seems like the ensembles are east of the Ops.  Also, if half the members had snow for RDU, I'd have to think that it would be a good deal higher here in the triad and growing steadily as you move west. 

TW

 

The Euro Ensemble Mean (according to WeatherBell) is about the same for us.  There's a few monster storms on the ensembles.  The mean is about 2.5".  I counted 31/51 that showed at least accumulating snow in our backyards during that time frame (39 show snow overall, but that's from a prior event around hr 84).  It looks like 18 are >2" and, as before, there's a few monster storms on there.

 

IIRC, the EPS didn't really show anything at all prior to today's run.

 

Looks like another tick SE on the 18z GEFS, too.

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More often than not when we cant get model alignment with these miller a wannabe systems there is always a fly in the ointment that brings us 31.8 and rain. You sit there all day and watch the zr slowly accumulate on the trees and bushes, ruin a weekend work day in the yard and then Monday turns sunny and torches. God I hate living in the piedmont for winter weather!

Just catching up today and wanted to give a shout out to MSUWX for an excellent video today and also his thoughts on the current system. Matthew, please post more for us!

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The Euro Ensemble Mean (according to WeatherBell) is about the same for us.  There's a few monster storms on the ensembles.  The mean is about 2.5".  I counted 31/51 that showed at least accumulating snow in our backyards during that time frame (39 show snow overall, but that's from a prior event around hr 84).  It looks like 18 are >2" and, as before, there's a few monster storms on there.

 

IIRC, the EPS didn't really show anything at all prior to today's run.

 

Looks like another tick SE on the 18z GEFS, too.

I think most of it boils down to the possible low over the lakes.  If it's not there, I think we'll get our winter storm.  If it's there, cold rain.

TW

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Lots of questions for the weekend. First, it's very far out there, and it's been on my radar for a while. The first hurdle to overcome is the nature of the upper air system itself. I leaned a couple days ago for a cutoff low in the Pacific Northwest around Thursday or Friday. The NAM is going that way and somewhat lesser degree Euro and GFS now. The big global models don't handle cutoff lows very well , especially ones that go into the Southwest states, like this one might do. So I'll be watching all the models for that particular important feature around Wednesday or Thursday, to see what models show exactly "what" the upper system looks like then, and what the forecast tracks are. Beyond Friday, it gets way too far out and very complicated, with a sky's the limit type of forecast. A strong cutoff could wobble through Texas to the Tennessee Valley and form a strong East Coast Winter Storm..with multiple precip types. The track of the surface and upper features are very much in question right now, but odds are some type of East Coast Winter storm looms around Saturday Night through Monday time Frame.

If you're down South, my first guess on any rain to snow changeover is in Kentucky and Tennessee , on the back side of the upper low, even if there is an upper low. We don't know yet. 

Here's the NAM at 84 hours showing the beginning of the system in question, and the red arrows are a rough idea of the track it may take approaching the weekend.

 

1780629_778314112198646_1092857804_n.jpg

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Here's an image from the 18 gfs ensemble mean.  The trend over the past three runs is to move the low pressure south towards a miller A solution. Less indication of a miller B scenario, although there is still some hint at a transfer (a few members must still be going with that solution).  Overall, good trends on both the GFS and EURO today.  If we can get this trend to continue over the next 24 hours, it would put central NC into play.  Right now, the biggest threat would still be the I-77 corridor in the mountains and foothills.

gfs-ens_mslpa_sd_us_24.png

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Here's an image from the 18 gfs ensemble mean.  The trend over the past three runs is to move the low pressure south towards a miller A solution. Less indication of a miller B scenario, although there is still some hint at a transfer (a few members must still be going with that solution).  Overall, good trends on both the GFS and EURO today.  If we can get this trend to continue over the next 24 hours, it would put central NC into play.  Right now, the biggest threat would still be the I-77 corridor in the mountains and foothills.

gfs-ens_mslpa_sd_us_24.png

Remember that this is also the time that the GFS tends to suppress storms to the south and east. Until I see a strong Euro signal that we're in a good pattern, I won't even get close to excited.
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Man the sref is a huge hit for the southern mtns for Friday! Forget the sunday Monday storm.

 

The 18z DGEX shows a decent hit for NC and a good deal of the Piedmont on Friday (1-3" for the Piedmont and 3"+ in the SW mountains), too, FWIW.  Of course, that's relying on the 84-hr NAM to be right, and we all know how that works out...

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18z GFS gives me 1.86qpf with temps 35-37 the entire event! Gotta love it :axe:

I know what you're saying but do we want the models to be right now or when the storm gets here? Most are saying the models are have problem with this storm.Really we shouldn't be surprised as the models have been back and forth all winter.Look at last weeks storm .We were forcasted to get nothing then a dusing and we received 2 in. Not a big storm but much better than a dusting wouldn't you say?

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The 18z DGEX shows a decent hit for NC and a good deal of the Piedmont (1-3" for the Piedmont and 3"+ in the SW mountains), too, FWIW. Of course, that's relying on the 84-hr NAM to be right, and we all know how that works out...

euro ensemble mean drops a .5 inch of snow here Friday.
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Not looking good for the weekend storm (outside the Northern Mountains) and while things could change, I wouldn't bet any money on anything more that a cold rain elsewhere in the SE. The tendency this winter has been for those great lake lows to pop up and rob us of the cold air we need to produce snow and I see nothing to indicate a change is in the offing. Without a -NAO, it is tough for a storm to stay far enough South to put us in the cold air zone.

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The 18z DGEX shows a decent hit for NC and a good deal of the Piedmont (1-3" for the Piedmont and 3"+ in the SW mountains), too, FWIW.  Of course, that's relying on the 84-hr NAM to be right, and we all know how that works out...

 

Yeah, it cuts it up west TN.  Wouldn't be surprised to see the GFS to go from this big wrapped up storm tracking up the Apps to wide right off the SC/GA coast in the next few runs.

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probably. he said his thoughts are for TN to KY to get snow. if the 0z don't do it's thing tonight my confidence will lower. 

 

If both the Euro and the GFS agree on the runner/miller b than I will be done with it and probably this winter, probably why I am so all in with this storm because this is it for me.  Although the Ensembles are starting to look better in the 11-15 day range, starting to lose any real emotion with wanting to see snow.  Been a long/tough winter.

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Since when are we not considered part of the SE? ;)  Western third of NC got a decent snow out of it & most of the Mnts got plastered. Biggest snow so far imby with 16" of synoptic incl. (thunder snow) & 2" of flow for a 18" total. Biggest snow here since 93. There were some issues, trees had a lot of weakened branches that came down (54 hrs without power & we were lucky), roads looked like a war zone with cars abandoned everywhere. I would take a redo of that storm in a heart beat!

Sorry, didn't mean that The mountains are not in the SE. ^_^

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