SN_Lover Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Incoming Freezing Rain into LA, MS, AL on Friday 18z NAM I haven't been following the NAM. Is it colder than the Global Models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It's colder at the surface with a 1040HP parked over the central states. 850s look warmish. I haven't been following the NAM. Is it colder than the Global Models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It's colder at the surface with a 1040HP parked over the central states. 850s look warmish. Only looking at the 18z NAM, NC looks better than areas in MS, AL, LA, because of lower dew points and surface temps. Plus this would support more of a CAD setup. So the NAM definitly does not look bad for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 With the warm nose, looks like a brief period of snow in North MS, then cold rain on the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I've gone ahead and brought his page into the system: http://www.americanwx.com/models/raleighwx/studies/hickory.html Thanks wow ! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like the track on the 18z gfs is right through the middle of NC. No cold air so just a big ole rainstorm for everyone in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The 18z GFS is a mess. Legit backside snow for N AL/MS and TN, though. It sort of looks like a Miller A/B hybrid of sorts, but it tracks inland and up the coast. I guess if you want a positive takeaway, it might be a little less Miller Bish than the 12z run. We'll see what the ensembles say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Maybe the 18z GFS is just gonna be a suck run for the next few days, kind of like when every 00z run of the last storm was a bomb. Read somewhere it can get in cycles like that,? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Honestly, I didn't see it as being that bad of a run. The plus side is that there is pretty strong hp over the plains. Lp moves to near CLT and then redevelops off V Beach. A very cold rain for CAD regions, but it wouldn't take a tremendous amount to result in some ice/snow. If this is more of a miller A, there will be very little ice with a rain/snow line running sw to ne. If miller b, than the cad regions just east of the mountains could get ice (probably to rain) while mountains go rain to eventually snow. Very interesting set up with lots on the table for now. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I don't know if anyone has mentioned them but FWIW the 12z Euro ensembles are bullish with big dog type snows, which has increased the mean. I use RDU as it's central to most and is a good one-stop location to compare whether it's coastal or miller B. 12z OP for RDU = 0.5" or so 12z Ensembles for RDU = 2.4" 6/50 have 9"+, one member has 24" or so Honestly I've never seen an individual member with that much snow. comes out to about 29/51 members including control run with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Confluent flow is weaker the PV moves out faster in addition to a bit more phasing with the southern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 well Jason Boyer on 13 news says no snowstorm any time soon. kinda thought with the right track with the LP out of the gulf it would drag the cold air down from the northeast. most models are saying a great track, so what gives? I know we're still 5 days out but the models should start catching on anytime and if your on the northwest side of the storm I always thought you were sitting pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 well Jason Boyer on 13 news says no snowstorm any time soon. kinda thought with the right track with the LP out of the gulf it would drag the cold air down from the northeast. most models are saying a great track, so what gives? If you start listening to Jason Boyer I feel sorry for you.... The track on the Euro and ensembles screams WNC mountain and foothills snowstorm to me, if the low tracks that perfectly it almost always finds a way to snow in WNC..especially higher elevations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I don't know if anyone has mentioned them but FWIW the 12z Euro ensembles are bullish with big dog type snows, which has increased the mean. I use RDU as it's central to most and is a good one-stop location to compare whether it's coastal or miller B. 12z OP for RDU = 0.5" or so 12z Ensembles for RDU = 2.4" 6/50 have 9"+, one member has 24" or so Honestly I've never seen an individual member with that much snow. comes out to about 29/51 members including control run with snow. Thanks for the info Jon...Sounds encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 If you start listening to Jason Boyer I feel sorry for you.... The track on the Euro and ensembles screams WNC mountain and foothills snowstorm to me, if the low tracks that perfectly it almost always finds a way to snow in WNC..especially higher elevations I agree, the only thing that bothers me right now is the cold air. I think for 10 days we had plenty and now we're having to beg for just enough for this storm to mix with. Still thought they're would be plenty cold just north of us with any decent HP at all. Plus now that the Euro is on board for the track aren't pretty much all the models agreeing on the track now. I guess the NWS will remain conservative until the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Ensembles are also more encouraging back west. I mean, it's not great but it's not a 18z GFS dumpster fire either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Fwiw- JB in his video today he said he thought it would be a Western Gulf then up the East Coast Classic Miller A storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Ensembles are also more encouraging back west. I mean, it's not great but it's not a 18z GFS dumpster fire either.Best looking ENS yet, can't ask for anymore, SLP just off NC coast at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epps88 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So it being this far out, what needs to be looked at more in depth? Ensembles or operational? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So it being this far out, what needs to be looked at more in depth? Ensembles or operational?Pretty sure you always want the ensembles on your side in most any timeframe . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I think today it's trended a bit more toward a Miller A type scenerio, so that's good, along with a pretty good ensemble track too, so that's good. However it still does not look cold enough at this point. Need to see better confluence to our NE. Not sure it's going to get there or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Ensembles cooled dramatically... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like the 18z ensembles take the low from sw Georgia at 132 to myrtle beach/Wilmington are at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like the 18z ensembles take the low from sw Georgia at 132 to myrtle beach/Wilmington are at 144. On a normal year, that would put a rain/snow line somewhere through the middle of the piedmont. Hopefully we'll have some colder air showing up soon. Just a few degrees would make a big difference. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 And I will gladly take the nam/dgex for this friday Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 another well respected weather man i was reading his thoughts now thinks it will be a rain event for us in the Carolinas this weekend. we just can't seem to buy a good old fashioned snowstorm!!!! got the have the storm track to the south of us and will be lacking in cold air..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think Matt East had the post of the day today. If that energy is there around the Midwest/Lakes, even if our storm takes a decent track, you can forget it. Game over. It's a simple as that. It'll screw up confluence, block high pressure and all but eliminate any CAA into the storm. There has been a lot of energy up there this year, as the flow has been very active, so that is a real concern. My worry about the ensembles is with their lower resolution, they might have more of a tendency to miss that critical element of the equation. Someone let me know if that's not a legitimate concern. Either way, that energy needs to do one of three things: 1) Not be there 2) Move through faster, with no interaction with our system, and get out of the way 3) Interact with/phase with our system farther east (big dog) If I was going to rank my concerns, it would be: 1) The storm track (always) 2) That energy in the northern stream (I have a hunch that this is going to end up being what screws us over) It all comes down to perfect timing...as usual. But even as flawed as the pattern is, it's still our best shot at a big one this year. Fingers crossed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 another well respected weather man i was reading his thoughts now thinks it will be a rain event for us in the Carolinas this weekend. we just can't seem to buy a good old fashioned snowstorm!!!! got the have the storm track to the south of us and will be lacking in cold air..... Yea and he nailed the last one and we all trust him. Doesn't sound good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Little bit of a change from yesterday's thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Little bit of a change from yesterday's thoughts Yep, but don't write this one off yet. there will still be ups and downs with plenty of model runs left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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