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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II


buckeyefan1

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12z Euro ENS mean a tick SE of the OP, has a broad SLP over the NC/SC coast at hour 144.  At hour 150 has the SLP tracking NE over the OBX.  Maybe it's more than a tick SE, two tick's.

 

If you want to compare it to the CMC Ens above, the Euro is about 50 miles NW of the CMC at the same time frame.

 

Also, the 0z Euro ENS mean had a broad SLP over Raleigh, maybe just a hair east of that.  So the ENS mean shifted 100 miles SE from the 0z run.

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12z Euro ENS mean a tick SE of the OP, has a broad SLP over the NC/SC coast at hour 144.  At hour 150 has the SLP tracking NE over the OBX.  Maybe it's more than a tick SE, two tick's.

 

If you want to compare it to the CMC Ens above, the Euro is about 50-100 miles NW of the CMC at the same time frame.

How does it compare to the 0z Euro ENS mean?  Thanks!

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Yea I'm just not too vested in this. 

 

Really?  This is the best potential for a 6"+ event for us since Boxing day, not even close.  Well I know you guys cached in with Jan 2011 event but we got holed on that one.  Yes, it's a long shot, but models are trending nicely, it's at least better than 8.5% chance.

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Textbook track, this is a Dec 2009 track, IMO.

 

:lmao::snowing:

 

If I'm being picky, I would like a track a little further east so I don't lose precip to IP/ZR during the latter stages.  I got 4-5" from that one, IIRC, but the foothills got a foot (and obviously north of there really got plastered)!  The central Piedmont will need it a little further east, I suppose.

 

I like that you seem excited about this one. :)

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Seems fixable then :-)

 

Last week we were begging for some interaction and didn't get it, now we need the opposite.

 

WIth last week's system the arctic feed was farther south & needed the southern s/w to interact more with the polar jet to bring in more gulf moisture.  In this case, we need things to back off to bring in enough cold air.

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Even the ensemble mean is too warm at 850 for the mtns. They did trend colder from 0z. Middle Tennessee looks to get hit good.

Are you taking about the Euro? I can't find the 850mb temps anywhere. Where did you go to get that? Thanks in advance!

 

never mind, i found it lol 

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Really?  This is the best potential for a 6"+ event for us since Boxing day, not even close.  Well I know you guys cached in with Jan 2011 event but we got holed on that one.  Yes, it's a long shot, but models are trending nicely, it's at least better than 8.5% chance.

 

A few things factor in like work and just all the goings on of the last storm and model watching. I'm optimistic but just can't get myself to be fully involved with this. Like I said I liked what the Euro did and am interested to see if something pops tonight. 

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Speak for yourself, sir.  I'm in the SE as well, and I quite enjoyed that storm, with zero cold rain and all snow.

 

Please, sir, may I have another?

 

Western part of NC... Classic track for big Hickory snow.  Where's Allan's study on this?

 

Exactly!  Not the greatest for east of here, but I wouldn't mind another December 2009.

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Since when are we not considered part of the SE? ;)  Western third of NC got a decent snow out of it & most of the Mnts got plastered. Biggest snow so far imby with 16" of synoptic incl. (thunder snow) & 2" of flow for a 18" total. Biggest snow here since 93. There were some issues, trees had a lot of weakened branches that came down (54 hrs without power & we were lucky), roads looked like a war zone with cars abandoned everywhere. I would take a redo of that storm in a heart beat!

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What solution does the EURO show for our area JB? Thanks in advance for any input. 

Jason 

 

Models have been all over the place. A few the past couple of days have shown major ice and major snow. The big question tonight will be if the Euro continues the trend, cuts off and bombs off the coast. If so someone in WNC is going to get plastered. 

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