packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z CMC ENS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z CMC ENS.. And if it's still sitting here 6 hours later, we would be set! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z Euro ENS mean a tick SE of the OP, has a broad SLP over the NC/SC coast at hour 144. At hour 150 has the SLP tracking NE over the OBX. Maybe it's more than a tick SE, two tick's. If you want to compare it to the CMC Ens above, the Euro is about 50 miles NW of the CMC at the same time frame. Also, the 0z Euro ENS mean had a broad SLP over Raleigh, maybe just a hair east of that. So the ENS mean shifted 100 miles SE from the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z Euro ENS mean a tick SE of the OP, has a broad SLP over the NC/SC coast at hour 144. At hour 150 has the SLP tracking NE over the OBX. Maybe it's more than a tick SE, two tick's. If you want to compare it to the CMC Ens above, the Euro is about 50-100 miles NW of the CMC at the same time frame. How does it compare to the 0z Euro ENS mean? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z Euro ENS mean a tick SE of the OP, has a broad SLP over the NC/SC coast at hour 144. At hour 150 has the SLP tracking NE over the OBX. Maybe it's more than a tick SE, two tick's.Correct me if I'm wrong but that track sounds like a track that has historically brought heavy snows to the NC mountains northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Per Bob Chill in the MA thread: Wow, eps supports a miller A. H5, mslp, and precip panels looks really good. I mean really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Correct me if I'm wrong but that track sounds like a track that has historically brought heavy snows to the NC mountains northward. Textbook track, this is a Dec 2009 track, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Per Bob Chill in the MA thread: 100% agree with Bob, for them it's a perfect track, for us east of I-77 it's a good trend. For NC mtns it's time to get very interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yea I'm just not too vested in this. Really? This is the best potential for a 6"+ event for us since Boxing day, not even close. Well I know you guys cached in with Jan 2011 event but we got holed on that one. Yes, it's a long shot, but models are trending nicely, it's at least better than 8.5% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Correct me if I'm wrong but that track sounds like a track that has historically brought heavy snows to the NC mountains northward. Western part of NC... Classic track for big Hickory snow. Where's Allan's study on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Textbook track, this is a Dec 2009 track, IMO. If I'm being picky, I would like a track a little further east so I don't lose precip to IP/ZR during the latter stages. I got 4-5" from that one, IIRC, but the foothills got a foot (and obviously north of there really got plastered)! The central Piedmont will need it a little further east, I suppose. I like that you seem excited about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Seems fixable then :-) Last week we were begging for some interaction and didn't get it, now we need the opposite. WIth last week's system the arctic feed was farther south & needed the southern s/w to interact more with the polar jet to bring in more gulf moisture. In this case, we need things to back off to bring in enough cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Textbook track, this is a Dec 2009 track, IMO. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20091218/ - Yes for MA. Cold rain for SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Is there any HP in the NE with the Euro Ensemble Mean? That's one thing that we lacked in December 2009 and I think many of us paid for it (though it worked out okay in the foothills and NW Piedmont). The track was a little too close to the coast for comfort, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KRDU&model=gfs&time=2014020300&field=prec http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KRDU&model=nam&time=2014020312&field=prec http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KRDU&model=gfs&time=2014020218&field=prec http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KRDU&model=gfs&time=2014020306&field=prec http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KRDU&model=gfs&time=2014020312&field=prec Lots of different scenarios, hoping for the 00z at the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Western part of NC... Classic track for big Hickory snow. Where's Allan's study on this? It is off line now. I asked him, via twitter, last week about his study. He stated that he would look into getting it back online.. Allan that is... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Euro ens shifted 50-100 miles to the south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Even the ensemble mean is too warm at 850 for the mtns. They did trend colder from 0z. Middle Tennessee looks to get hit good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Even the ensemble mean is too warm at 850 for the mtns. They did trend colder from 0z. Middle Tennessee looks to get hit good. Are you taking about the Euro? I can't find the 850mb temps anywhere. Where did you go to get that? Thanks in advance! never mind, i found it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Are you taking about the Euro? I can't find the 850mb temps anywhere. Where did you go to get that? Thanks in advance! never mind, i found it lol yes the euro. I still think we head towards a more weaker solution over the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Really? This is the best potential for a 6"+ event for us since Boxing day, not even close. Well I know you guys cached in with Jan 2011 event but we got holed on that one. Yes, it's a long shot, but models are trending nicely, it's at least better than 8.5% chance. A few things factor in like work and just all the goings on of the last storm and model watching. I'm optimistic but just can't get myself to be fully involved with this. Like I said I liked what the Euro did and am interested to see if something pops tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 yes the euro. I still think we head towards a more weaker solution over the next couple days.Weaker is better in this situation , so that will be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20091218/ - Yes for MA. Cold rain for SE. Speak for yourself, sir. I'm in the SE as well, and I quite enjoyed that storm, with zero cold rain and all snow. Please, sir, may I have another? Western part of NC... Classic track for big Hickory snow. Where's Allan's study on this? Exactly! Not the greatest for east of here, but I wouldn't mind another December 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20091218/ - Yes for MA. Cold rain for SE. Since when are we not considered part of the SE? Western third of NC got a decent snow out of it & most of the Mnts got plastered. Biggest snow so far imby with 16" of synoptic incl. (thunder snow) & 2" of flow for a 18" total. Biggest snow here since 93. There were some issues, trees had a lot of weakened branches that came down (54 hrs without power & we were lucky), roads looked like a war zone with cars abandoned everywhere. I would take a redo of that storm in a heart beat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It is off line now. I asked him, via twitter, last week about his study. He stated that he would look into getting it back online.. Allan that is... Sent from my iPhone I've gone ahead and brought his page into the system: http://www.americanwx.com/models/raleighwx/studies/hickory.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 What solution does the EURO show for our area JB? Thanks in advance for any input. Jason Models have been all over the place. A few the past couple of days have shown major ice and major snow. The big question tonight will be if the Euro continues the trend, cuts off and bombs off the coast. If so someone in WNC is going to get plastered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 18z NAM at 84 hours: How much for Jackson, Miss.????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 MS, AL, LA, and PVG have become the new snow capitals of the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Incoming Freezing Rain into LA, MS, AL on Friday 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wow, it's amazing to read about the possibilities as many of us are in the 60-70's currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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