packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Close on the Euro at 144, but not enough, much better than 0z. Still a little progressive, never closes off or goes negative, from what I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like the SLP tracks right through ATL, and then up 95 and over the OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Again the Euro looked awfully close to me like it's trying to form a cutoff. This is an interesting trend and would fall in line with what Wow and Robert have been saying earlier. I'm very interested in what the Euro and CMC look like tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Euro never really closes it off so the confluence is never well established, and thus the HP is weak... cold air lacking. A bit farther south than the 0z. Still a big storm for the MA and NE. Almost there.. and I think we stand a good chance at getting there given the seasonal pattern. Big phasing events are not happening this winter with the lack of Atlantic blocking to slow down the wave train and allow such a thing to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Again the Euro looked awfully close to me like it's trying to form a cutoff. This is an interesting trend and would fall in line with what Wow and Robert have been saying earlier. I'm very interested in what the Euro and CMC look like tonight. The good thing is it's a step in the right direction as opposed to the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Sounds like it hammered DC and was a Miller A (just too far inland for us)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The good thing is it's a step in the right direction as opposed to the other way around. Don't misquote me. I think it's interesting. Models have gone the wrong direction today but who knows what tomorrow holds. Personally I'm not too enthusiastic about this storm, if something does happen I feel like it will be ice. Give me 70 and sunny over ice please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Sounds like it hammered DC and was a Miller A (just too far inland for us)? Not sure if it was a miller A or a hybrid, whatever it was, it was better than the 0z run. 0z had the SLP over NC MTN's, the 12z has it over central GA. Yes, it hits MA/NE very hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Sounds like it hammered DC and was a Miller A (just too far inland for us)? Yes, it's mostly a Miller A style track... it runs inland thru central GA/SC before jumping off short near DelMarVa. Had this cutoff completely to prevent further phasing of polar energy, this would've been a pure miller A with stout HP centered overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yes, it's mostly a Miller A style track... it runs inland thru central GA/SC before jumping off short near DelMarVa.Still time to trend south or the high to trend stonger? Or if the low tracks further south, it won't matter if the cold is not there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yes, it's mostly a Miller A style track... it runs inland thru central GA/SC before jumping off short near DelMarVa. It did look like it re-formed, but it did look miller A type track too, why I thought it was a hybrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Thanks, guys. Sounds like a decent shift from last night and something we can maybe work with. I am a bit concerned that the majority of the modelling is slamming the surface low up into central GA, which almost certainly won't work for us, but there's still a lot of time for that to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It did look like it re-formed, but it did look miller A type track too, why I thought it was a hybrid Hence the "mostly" Yeah it was a bit "jumpy" with the low center but it did not really go negative with the trough axis to force a Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Still time to trend south or the high to trend stonger? Or if the low tracks further south, it won't matter if the cold is not there? If the trough cuts off, the surface low will track farther south as it won't have the "pull" of polar energy dropping into the trough base. Also, confluence over the NE will strengthen with the absence of a long wave trough. Essentially we wants the polar jet to have less influence with this storm.. as least until it reaches us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Per Robert on Twitter: Still possible cutoff holds closed through its track thru Tex, big question on track after Texas region. Snow north and west side of track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Per Robert on Twitter: Still possible cutoff holds closed through its track thru Tex, big question on track after Texas region. Snow north and west side of track Also said this: European model now following idea of GFS.Major storm taking s. track, up east Coast next weekend. Big Ticket item. No rain/snow line yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I am not seeing that on latest Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hence the "mostly" Yeah it was a bit "jumpy" with the low center but it did not really go negative with the trough axis to force a Miller B. So far out still, but the model consensus of a big storm is good. Hopefully the Euron ENS are a hair SE of the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I am not seeing that on latest Euro 0Z Euro run had the low tracking the Apps, it now has it in Central Georgia. Big shift for one run and probably not done shifting yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I dont have much faith in the euro being that far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I dont have much faith in the euro being that far off. Do you mean that the latest Euro is still a long ways from showing a major SE storm and you don't think it will move towards one in the coming days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I dont have much faith in the euro being that far off. Yea I'm just not too vested in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The lack of cold air penetration is concerning to me. I know if this and if that then maybe the cold air will be drawn down, but that's always a sketchy recipe for a winter storm to me. When you're relying on what the southern stream does to dictate how strong a high from the north gets, you're going to be on the outside looking in more times than not. BUT, beggars can't be choosers in this pattern either, so we'll have to take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The lack of cold air penetration is concerning to me. I know if this and if that then maybe the cold air will be drawn down, but that's always a sketchy recipe for a winter storm to me. When you're relying on what the southern stream does to dictate how strong a high from the north gets, you're going to be on the outside looking in more times than not. BUT, beggars can't be choosers in this pattern either, so we'll have to take what we can get. I agree Cold Rain...The lack of cold is concerning. The trends haven't been good today imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 0Z Euro run had the low tracking the Apps, it now has it in Central Georgia. Big shift for one run and probably not done shifting yet. I don't live in GA or the mountains, but I would think a miller A tracking into the southern apps would have to go through central GA. What am I missing. tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The only real difference between today's 12z Euro and the big 0z Miller A GFS is the piece of energy in the Midwest. Notice how similar the handling of the southern piece (TX) of energy is. On the 12z Euro, the Midwest energy keeps interacting with the southern energy as it moves eastward and draws it north a bit. More importantly, due to the presence of that feature, there is little to no confluence over the Northeast, thus no big CAD high. So it looks like that Midwest energy is the biggest 'problem' for winter weather fans. Below is the 12z Euro and the 0z GFS.... Also, regarding the 12z GFS..... looking through the vorticity fields, it just looks plain weird with how it handled the southern energy. I wouldn't trust that one solution....something just looks off about it to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 What does it look like for Nashville area?so far you look good. Although with the way this year has gone I would not be surprised to see this trend weaker and slide off the southeast coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I agree Cold Rain...The lack of cold is concerning. The trends haven't been good today imo. Be of good cheer The big two have been very helpful in giving what people want from run to run. If you want warm, it shows warm...then the cold lovers get mad, so the next run they show cold. I personally want the low to track across Fla. so it is my belief that come tonght late, or tomorrow, one of them will give me what I want, lol. The one thing neither is doing, particularly well, is showing what will actually happen, lol. But this is a weekend storm, and it's far, far away. I expect I'll get what I want, then it will be taken away, then it'll come back, only to leave. It'll be down to who has the ball last Climo says it will be cold in winter, so I'm going with that. And it's been wet since March, so I'm going with that. Cold and wet is what I've got, lol, how cold and how wet...can't say. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The only real difference between today's 12z Euro and the big 0z Miller A GFS is the piece of energy in the Midwest. Notice how similar the handling of the southern piece (TX) of energy is. On the 12z Euro, the Midwest energy keeps interacting with the southern energy as it moves eastward and draws it north a bit. More importantly, due to the presence of that feature, there is little to no confluence over the Northeast, thus no big CAD high. So it looks like that Midwest energy is the biggest 'problem' for winter weather fans. Below is the 12z Euro and the 0z GFS.... Also, regarding the 12z GFS..... looking through the vorticity fields, it just looks plain weird with how it handled the southern energy. I wouldn't trust that one solution....something just looks off about it to me. Seems fixable then :-) Last week we were begging for some interaction and didn't get it, now we need the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The only real difference between today's 12z Euro and the big 0z Miller A GFS is the piece of energy in the Midwest. Notice how similar the handling of the southern piece (TX) of energy is. On the 12z Euro, the Midwest energy keeps interacting with the southern energy as it moves eastward and draws it north a bit. More importantly, due to the presence of that feature, there is little to no confluence over the Northeast, thus no big CAD high. So it looks like that Midwest energy is the biggest 'problem' for winter weather fans. Below is the 12z Euro and the 0z GFS.... Also, regarding the 12z GFS..... looking through the vorticity fields, it just looks plain weird with how it handled the southern energy. I wouldn't trust that one solution....something just looks off about it to me. That's bothersome because we've seen that type of feature time and again this winter. This doesn't guarantee it will be there, but if it is, then watch for the famous Lakes Low to pop up. That is the kiss of death. Of course, if that feature is real, maybe it gets through first, establishes better confluence, and allows high pressure build in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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