Wow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Ice ice baby!! Yikes looks rough for VA western NC at 147. Verbatim the 12z GFS doesn't quite get the HP in prime position for CAD so the sfc frzg line is up to Roanoke by then. I think this thing will be cutting off given the lack of a -NAO block to slow down the polar jet. That's how it's been all season. That'll keep confluence in place throughout the storm. With that, the ULL will be primed to deliver a significant winter storm to the upper south region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 CMC at 144 hours -- 1008 low over central Ga. -- looks warm, but hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Talk about toeing the line with this one, still 6+ days away. Yeah.. still up in the air for sure, but given the lack of Atlantic blocking this season, I can't see this phasing that much.. NAO is ++ ... this thing is going to trend weaker and cut off from the polar jet. High pressure will dominate the northern tier, as it has most of the winter. In this case, less phasing is good, unlike the 1/28 event where we needed more phasing to counter the pressing arctic jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 You have to love how consistent the GFS is from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 CMC at 144 hours -- 1008 low over central Ga. -- looks warm, but hard to tell. Similar to 0z, good to see, CMC is a phase happy model and it's SE of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Sorry a bit off topic but would appreciate any feedback anyone wants to give. In looking at the meteogram generated by this site, it appears that GSP would get a nasty dose of ice per both the 0z and 6z GFS.....Am I interpretting this correctly? The reason I ask is because I thought I saw some say hear that we were mostly rain. Thanks http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kgsp Really what I am wondering is why does the link above paint a icey/snowy picture but when I use this site......none of the 2M or 850 temps support either.....thanks http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/archive.shtml?text=kgsp&run=2014020300 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 CMC is interesting this run. It kind of does what WOW was talking about by sending a shortwave well south. It doesn't cut off but it also doesn't look like it even comes close to cutting up the apps. I'm speaking of the first storm and not the possible big one the GFS has had next weekend. My maps are stuck at 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 CMC at 144 hours -- 1008 low over central Ga. -- looks warm, but hard to tell. Similar to 0z, good to see, CMC is a phase happy model and it's SE of the GFS. I have a hard time reading these maps, but it definitely looks SE of the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 For N GA, the 12Z GFS isn't even really close with no real strong wedge setup. This is among the warmest runs in several days with all areas getting at least into the low 40's and 925's in the ATL-AHN corridor getting up to an almost balmy +8 to +9 C, which would just be a garden variety cool rain. The surface high is much weaker with only ~1035 mb vs. ~1043 mb on the 6Z GFS and ~1038 mb on the 0Z GFS. Granted, my research shows that 1035-8 mb can still be strong enough to give N GA major ZR given the right setup. However, as these runs have shown, a stronger high would certainly increase that chance. Keep in mind that down in N GA vs. NC, they need a good bit more favorable setup to get them a winter storm of significance obviously since they're quite a bit more common up in NC and N GA is generally warmer/further south. The 1043 mb of the 6Z GFS may have been an outlier run being that that's quite a bit stronger than the average NE high. We'll see. If it returns, watch out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The GEFS did fairly well with this upcoming storm, seeing it consistently show a miller b isn't good, although the 12z GEFS isn't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This looks like a major snowstorm. I'm betting 12-24" at RDU on this run. OMG wow. I don't think so. It's way too warm...this is all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The 12Z GEFS doesn't impress me at all with a weaker NE surface high on the mean for 2/9 vs. the prior three runs. GFS trends are not at all favorable right now imo, but there's still time for a reversal. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The 12Z GEFS doesn't impress me at all with a weaker NE surface high on the mean for 2/9 vs. the prior three runs. GFS trends are not at all favorable right now imo, but there's still time for a reversal. We'll see. Still alot of spread. it's one model run, so well see what the 18 and 0z do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Still alot of spread. it's one model run, so well see what the 18 and 0z do... The mean NE US surface high was ~4 mb stronger on the prior three runs more or less. A trend toward a weaker high is obviously not preferred in this situation, especially down in N GA. However, there is still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Sorry a bit off topic but would appreciate any feedback anyone wants to give. In looking at the meteogram generated by this site, it appears that GSP would get a nasty dose of ice per both the 0z and 6z GFS.....Am I interpretting this correctly? The reason I ask is because I thought I saw some say hear that we were mostly rain. Thanks http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kgsp 06z GFS, per bufkit soundings, the above would be correct. Heavy freezing rain for a few hours. Whoever said that was likely just looking off a ptype map somewhere Really what I am wondering is why does the link above paint a icey/snowy picture but when I use this site......none of the 2M or 850 temps support either.....thanks http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/archive.shtml?text=kgsp&run=2014020300 Definitely doesn't support snow, but it supports freezing rain. Gotta look at soundings, 850's and 2mT won't be so telling for ZR...at least, I prefer soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The mean NE US surface high was ~4 mb stronger on the prior three runs more or less. A trend toward a weaker high is obviously not preferred in this situation, especially down in N GA. However, there is still time. i don't know why everyone is so concerned about the strength of the high. what matters is the orientation of the high and the gradient between the high and low. if you look at the image above, there are still may locations the low and high could fall under with different gradients. sigma values are 1+, that's alot of difference. plenty of time for adjustment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 i don't know why everyone is so concerned about the strength of the high. what matters is the orientation of the high and the gradient between the high and low. if you look at the image above, there are still may locations the low and high could fall under with different gradients. sigma values are 1+, that's alot of difference. plenty of time for adjustment The strength of the high and orientation of high both matter, especially further SW than W NC. The best chance would be with a stronger high that is favorably oriented. A stronger high itself being more favorable for especially more SW areas is just logical/intuitive. Then again, my research has shown that it doesn't have to be very strong (say 1040+) to give Atlanta a major ZR. Highs as weak as 1027 have done it. The highest concentration is in the 1034-38 range. Weaker highs are much more numerous, which explains the majority being associated with highs weaker than 1040. So, it doesn't mean that one would want it weaker than 1040. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The UKMET brings the surface low into northwestern South Carolina at the end of its run (1008 mb). Meh. From the limited maps I'm looking at, the NAVGEM looks like a good hit with the low offshore. Then again, it is a progressive model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The strength of the high and orientation of high both matter, especially further SW than W NC. The best chance would be with a stronger high that is favorably oriented. A stronger high itself being more favorable for especially for more SW areas is just logical/intuitive. Then again, my research has shown that it doesn't have to be strong (say 1040+) to give Atlanta a major ZR. Can i see a scatter plot with a best fit line of the research? if you have a 980 low and a 1020 high, you will still get the same amount of CAD as a 990 low and 1030 high oriented in the same fashion. stats cant explain everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 06z GFS, per bufkit soundings, the above would be correct. Heavy freezing rain for a few hours. Whoever said that was likely just looking off a ptype map somewhere Definitely doesn't support snow, but it supports freezing rain. Gotta look at soundings, 850's and 2mT won't be so telling for ZR...at least, I prefer soundings. thanks for the feedback Jon....much apprecitated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Can i see a scatter plot with a best fit line of the research? if you have a 980 low and a 1020 high, you will still get the same amount of CAD as a 990 low and 1030 high oriented in the same fashion. stats cant explain everything. Yes, the gradient would be about the same. However, a 1030 high will tend to be colder with lower TD's than a 1020 high (on average). Therefore, with a 1030/990 combo, the CAD would tend to bring down colder air with lower TD's than a 1020/980 combo (on average). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yes, the gradient would be about the same. However, a 1030 high will tend to be colder than a 1020 high (on average). Therefore, with a 1030/990 combo, the CAD would tend to bring down colder air than a 1020/980 combo (on average). not really... but we're just gonna have to agree to disagree because this would last a day haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 thanks for the feedback Jon....much apprecitated No prob. I actually thought you linked to the 06z, so I didn't even consider you were talking about the 00z... 00z on first glance doesn't look like ZR, more like IP (a lot of it), then ends as snow on the back end. It has ZR on the sounding ptype but looks more like IP to me. 06z is a big ice storm, several hours of ZR 1"+ QPF sorry for any confusion, the 00z/06z definitely doesn't show an all rain event for GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 not really... but we're just gonna have to agree to disagree because this would last a day haha Are you saying you don't think that there is a pretty good correlation between strength of surface high and how cold it is when referring to Arctic highs? I think there is decent correlation based on the idea that Arctic highs tend to get stronger pressure-wise as they get colder since colder air is heavier. Also, my study of numerous old weather maps easily confirms this. The coldest Arctic outbreaks tend to be associated with higher pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Are you saying you don't think that there is a pretty good correlation between strength of surface high and how cold it is when referring to Arctic highs? I think there is decent correlation based on the idea that Arctic highs tend to get stronger pressure-wise as they get colder since colder air is heavier. Also, my study of numerous old weather maps easily confirms this. The coldest Arctic outbreaks tend to be associated with higher pressure. Don't even waste the key strokes. The guy was hell bent on a Lakes Cutter, then a Miller B and now seems to have bought in to the whole Miller A concept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 According to the 12z euro, 850's support possible snow flurries late Thursday night for parts of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 According to the 12z euro, 850's support possible snow flurries late Thursday night for parts of NC. Yep that could be a sneaky one. CMC had a descent track on 5h. Now Euro does the same. Might have to keep an eye on the NAM for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looking ahead to the Sunday storm, I don't think the cold is going to be there. The 12z euro has a 1028 high sliding east. I believe we're going to need a stronger hight than that. We'll see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'd take position over strength. If in the right location, 1028 is plenty for cad areas of NC. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 One good thing about the Euro is that the PV in the NE looks better placed and it doesn't look like there is as much phasing. @132 This looks close to being a cutoff to me but maybe a professional should chime in on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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