superjames1992 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 There should be a storm thread. As it is now, any real pattern discussion is being overshadowed by this short-term storm. Anyways, wow at this morning's model runs. I thought this one was toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If we see this trend in a favorable direction after the 0z cycle tonight, then let's start the thread. No reason not to start one. It's not like there's a limit on threads or anything. I mean, you don't want to start one for every non-event that comes along or the board would be filled with chaos. But if there are going to be pages of discussion of a potential event, then there's no reason not to start a thread. If it dies, it'll fall to the bottom of the page anyway. Not sure where all of the aversion to starting threads comes from. Wilkes is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Model agreement has been difficult with this one. May very well still be a northern storm, but the sudden trend to a stronger gulf storm is good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The models are all over the place once again this morning. Just after I thought this storm was toast on Thursday, the GFS and NAM throws a curve ball. Right now, there are so many more questions than answers about what will happen. No matter what, we must get the cold air in here before anything develops in the Gulf. This can happen. Let me explain what we need to happen vs. what is expected or most likely to happen. We need to get the low to develop at the Gulf or we need the pattern to slow down a little to allow the front to pass with energy developing a low in the Gulf of Mexico. The models do not show this currently; however, they are close to showing this. Let's now move on to see what the ensembles and the EURO says and see maybe just maybe if we can get a storm at the beginning of the New Year. It would be a very close call; however, that's the way it usually is in the Carolinas. I am still not bought in on this happening, but this model run shocked me. Let's see what happens moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The models are all over the place once again this morning. Just after I thought this storm was toast on Thursday, the GFS and NAM throws a curve ball. Right now, there are so many more questions than answers about what will happen. No matter what, we must get the cold air in here before anything develops in the Gulf. This can happen. Let me explain what we need to happen vs. what is expected or most likely to happen. We need to get the low to develop at the Gulf or we need the pattern to slow down a little to allow the front to pass with energy developing a low in the Gulf of Mexico. The models do not show this currently; however, they are close to showing this. Let's now move on to see what the ensembles and the EURO says and see maybe just maybe if we can get a storm at the beginning of the New Year. It would be a very close call; however, that's the way it usually is in the Carolinas. I am still not bought in on this happening, but this model run shocked me. Let's see what happens moving forward. Yep...the SW energy has been getting squashed. That can't happen. Either, the northern stream needs to get through first and then the non-squashed southern wave needs to develop and come through, OR you need a phase at exactly the right time, with a strengthening low off the SE coast...not the strung out mess that the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 An unhealthy fear of superstitions. Seriously, the storm will do what the storm will do regardless of where we discuss it. Haha! I think so too...on both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The trend is good. The 12Z GFS now has some snow accumulations showing up for northern NC (dusting to 1"): http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=12&model_dd=30&model_init_hh=12&fhour=108¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yep, UKMet has been on this suppressed train the last few runs, now GFS hops on...been a crazy model ride with this one And the "sad" part is that we are only 72 hours out from the event potentially starting, or in full swing, depending on the timing and your location. The fact that the U.S. models don't agree at such a close distance has been a trend all year long, carrying over from last January when the same issues arose at just 24 hours out. Incredible. That being said, the GFS has been superior in almost all "events" this year. Right now, I'd use a blend of the ECMWF and GFS as a first guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 An unhealthy fear of superstitions. Seriously, the storm will do what the storm will do regardless of where we discuss it. It will still be tough to get snow for anybody east of I-77, but anyone west of that has a good shot to get some accumulating snow, assuming todays runs aren't flukes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 January 7th, 1988 showed up on the CIPS analog guidance as the 8th best analog for hour 96 of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 For real? Maybe I'm having a memory lapse but I don't remember starting storm-specific threads this late. At most 2 to 2.5 days out? Might as well wait and create an OBS thread. Call me crazy but there are plenty of model runs and solutions to fill pages of thoughts in storm-specific thread. Agree. In the past, we have had storm threads for storms that were still +6 days out - full of model diagnostic discussions and upper air map evolution, soundings, cold air placement, etc. I see no reason why this next storm threat is being held to a different "standard." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 January 7th, 1988 showed up on the CIPS analog guidance as the 8th best analog for hour 96 of the GFS. Please start a thread so people can know what you all are discussing as this has nothing to do with the pattern thread. It doesn't matter what you do, a storm or a piece of energy isn't going to know you started a thread. Even if it doesn't snow for yall, it is going to be a significant rain event for some areas. Agreed. Sometimes, people act like storms/models have personalities or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yeah, I'll take that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 How much do we really need to southern stream to slow down? 12 hrs? 24? And is it even a realistic possibility the models are that far off on the timing this close to the event? I sorta feel like Snowniner and Packbacker about temps with this one, but QC's analogue is intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 72 hour EC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The Euro has caved. One low and a massive shift, though I still think it is going to be too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 How much do we really need to southern stream to slow down? 12 hrs? 24? And is it even a realistic possibility the models are that far off on the timing this close to the event? I sorta feel like Snowniner and Packbacker about temps with this one, but QC's analogue is intriguing. Is it rare for a first class global model to be off on timing by 12 hours or more within 72 hours? 3 days usually has a very high verification score for the GFS, CMC and Euro. Realistically, for my area, we would need another 24 hours to really entrench the cold before the gulf low forms. Like Tony says: deliver the cold fist and then I'll take my chances on a gulf low. Gulf low first, and then cold, never works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Is it rare for a first class global model to be off on timing by 12 hours or more within 72 hours? 3 days usually has a very high verification score for the GFS, CMC and Euro. Realistically, for my area, we would need another 24 hours to really entrench the cold before the gulf low forms. Like Tony says: deliver the cold fist and then I'll take my chances on a gulf low. Gulf low first, and then cold, never works out. Kinda what I'm thinking too. Euro is different, but not gonna cut it. Low too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nice shift on the models this afternoon but imo this is still a rain event for the SE crew. I just don't see the cold getting in here in time to do us any good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Ukmet might score here. Euro takes the low over the apps but made a huge shift south. Still large differences from the globals at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Do it. I speculate that the Euro might have changed over to snow for some at the end of its run. For someone with detailed maps, did this occur or was it all-rain? All rain except for mtns and TN. DC gets crushed and points NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If we can get this to be a pure Miller A that tracks from LA to off SAV to off HAT...many of us could be in the game. I don't think that scenario is completely out of the woods yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 JB just posted a EURO snow map that shows the snow extending down to the NC/VA border (outside of the mountains). Again, if we lose the hybrid Miller B scenario, more of us could be in the game. We will have to wait until tonight for more info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Don't look now but the 12Z Euro is off the scale with the entire PV coming south into the GL, -32 at 850 as far south as central KY, -23 to ATL. Of course this may very well not happen, but entertaining to look at nonetheless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 All rain except for mtns and TN. DC gets crushed and points NE.FWIW JB tweeted this morning Dallas to DC as NChighcountrty already said. Hopefully wrong but not looking like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Thread for potential weekend event here! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42186-potential-winter-storm-jan-3-4/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 wow, the euro is even farther south with the PV lobe at hour 174...drops it all the way down to the Michigan / Indiana border, then to NE Ohio...other modeling is farther north and not as cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Don't look now but the 12Z Euro is off the scale with the entire PV coming south into the GL, -32 at 850 as far south as central KY, -23 to ATL. Of course this may very well not happen, but entertaining to look at nonetheless... good lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If we can get this to be a pure Miller A that tracks from LA to off SAV to off HAT...many of us could be in the game. I don't think that scenario is completely out of the woods yet. I'm asking because I really don't know. Isn't the SE ridge gone now ? That what caused the snow and ice that hit Texas ,Arkansas up into the NE. If the ridge is gone shouldn't that allow the front to slide up the east coast ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Don't look now but the 12Z Euro is off the scale with the entire PV coming south into the GL, -32 at 850 as far south as central KY, -23 to ATL. Of course this may very well not happen, but entertaining to look at nonetheless... BOOM. Remember that east coast trough idea some were SURE was going to happen around same time period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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