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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II


buckeyefan1

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If we see this trend in a favorable direction after the 0z cycle tonight, then let's start the thread. No reason not to start one. It's not like there's a limit on threads or anything. I mean, you don't want to start one for every non-event that comes along or the board would be filled with chaos. But if there are going to be pages of discussion of a potential event, then there's no reason not to start a thread. If it dies, it'll fall to the bottom of the page anyway. Not sure where all of the aversion to starting threads comes from. Wilkes is gone.

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The models are all over the place once again this morning. Just after I thought this storm was toast on Thursday, the GFS and NAM throws a curve ball.

 

Right now, there are so many more questions than answers about what will happen. No matter what, we must get the cold air in here before anything develops in the Gulf. This can happen. Let me explain what we need to happen vs. what is expected or most likely to happen.

 

We need to get the low to develop at the Gulf or we need the pattern to slow down a little to allow the front to pass with energy developing a low in the Gulf of Mexico.

 

The models do not show this currently; however, they are close to showing this. Let's now move on to see what the ensembles and the EURO says and see maybe just maybe if we can get a storm at the beginning of the New Year. It would be a very close call; however, that's the way it usually is in the Carolinas. I am still not bought in on this happening, but this model run shocked me. Let's see what happens moving forward.

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The models are all over the place once again this morning. Just after I thought this storm was toast on Thursday, the GFS and NAM throws a curve ball.

 

Right now, there are so many more questions than answers about what will happen. No matter what, we must get the cold air in here before anything develops in the Gulf. This can happen. Let me explain what we need to happen vs. what is expected or most likely to happen.

 

We need to get the low to develop at the Gulf or we need the pattern to slow down a little to allow the front to pass with energy developing a low in the Gulf of Mexico.

 

The models do not show this currently; however, they are close to showing this. Let's now move on to see what the ensembles and the EURO says and see maybe just maybe if we can get a storm at the beginning of the New Year. It would be a very close call; however, that's the way it usually is in the Carolinas. I am still not bought in on this happening, but this model run shocked me. Let's see what happens moving forward.

Yep...the SW energy has been getting squashed. That can't happen. Either, the northern stream needs to get through first and then the non-squashed southern wave needs to develop and come through, OR you need a phase at exactly the right time, with a strengthening low off the SE coast...not the strung out mess that the GFS shows.

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Yep, UKMet has been on this suppressed train the last few runs, now GFS hops on...been a crazy model ride with this one

 

And the "sad" part is that we are only 72 hours out from the event potentially starting, or in full swing, depending on the timing and your location.  The fact that the U.S. models don't agree at such a close distance has been a trend all year long, carrying over from last January when the same issues arose at just 24 hours out.  Incredible.

 

That being said, the GFS has been superior in almost all "events" this year.  Right now, I'd use a blend of the ECMWF and GFS as a first guess.

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An unhealthy fear of superstitions. :) Seriously, the storm will do what the storm will do regardless of where we discuss it.

 

It will still be tough to get snow for anybody east of I-77, but anyone west of that has a good shot to get some accumulating snow, assuming todays runs aren't flukes.

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For real? Maybe I'm having a memory lapse but I don't remember starting storm-specific threads this late. At most 2 to 2.5 days out? Might as well wait and create an OBS thread. Call me crazy but there are plenty of model runs and solutions to fill pages of thoughts in storm-specific thread.

 

Agree.  In the past, we have had storm threads for storms that were still +6 days out - full of model diagnostic discussions and upper air map evolution, soundings, cold air placement, etc.  I see no reason why this next storm threat is being held to a different "standard."

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January 7th, 1988 showed up on the CIPS analog guidance as the 8th best analog for hour 96 of the GFS.

 

:lmao:

 

accum.19880108.gif

 

Please start a thread so people can know what you all are discussing as this has nothing to do with the pattern thread. It doesn't matter what you do, a storm or a piece of energy isn't going to know you started a thread. Even if it doesn't snow for yall, it is going to be a significant rain event for some areas.

 

Agreed.  Sometimes, people act like storms/models have personalities or something.

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How much do we really need to southern stream to slow down? 12 hrs? 24? And is it even a realistic possibility the models are that far off on the timing this close to the event? I sorta feel like Snowniner and Packbacker about temps with this one, but QC's analogue is intriguing. :)

Is it rare for a first class global model to be off on timing by 12 hours or more within 72 hours? 3 days usually has a very high verification score for the GFS, CMC and Euro. Realistically, for my area, we would need another 24 hours to really entrench the cold before the gulf low forms. Like Tony says: deliver the cold fist and then I'll take my chances on a gulf low. Gulf low first, and then cold, never works out.

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Is it rare for a first class global model to be off on timing by 12 hours or more within 72 hours? 3 days usually has a very high verification score for the GFS, CMC and Euro. Realistically, for my area, we would need another 24 hours to really entrench the cold before the gulf low forms. Like Tony says: deliver the cold fist and then I'll take my chances on a gulf low. Gulf low first, and then cold, never works out.

Kinda what I'm thinking too.

Euro is different, but not gonna cut it. Low too far west.

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If we can get this to be a pure Miller A that tracks from LA to off SAV to off HAT...many of us could be in the game. I don't think that scenario is completely out of the woods yet.

I'm asking because I really don't know. Isn't the SE ridge gone now ? That what caused the snow and ice that hit Texas ,Arkansas up into the NE. If the ridge is gone shouldn't that allow the front to slide up the east coast ?

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Don't look now but the 12Z Euro is off the scale with the entire PV coming south into the GL, -32 at 850 as far south as central KY, -23 to ATL. Of course this may very well not happen, but entertaining to look at nonetheless...

 

BOOM. Remember that east coast trough idea some were SURE was going to happen around same time period?

OfcN8F0.png

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