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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II


buckeyefan1

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Black and white CMC image’s are out.  IT’s hard to tell details, but it takes 1010mb low over New Orleans Thursday morning to a 988mb low off the new england coast on Friday morning.  

 

The CMC spawns this storm without the help of the southern stream wave we’ve been watching.  It just has a boat load more northern energy diving into the trough, along with a much sharper west coast ridge.  

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Also, brad posted this on facebook. I assume it's safe for here: 

 

Yeah been looking at those on wxbell.  Pretty awesome to have output for each individual Euro Ensemble member.  The only thing I'm leery of with the snowfall output is the wxbell algorithm for snow, but it's still really nice to have the QPF on there for each member.  There's a separate page that just has QPF for each member, regardless of ptype.

 

Here's an explanation I saw posted on the suspect wxbell algorithm for snow..."the raw ECMWF output has a categorical yes/no for a series of p-types -- if for a given timestep, if snow=yes, he sums up the liquid equivalent and applies a 10:1 ratio -- this causes some issues because just because the categorical p-type is snow at say 18z, doesn't mean that it was snow for the entire 6-hour time step for the output -- that's simply how to end up getting more snow even if the thermal profiles don't support it -- it's either sloppiness on Maue's part or he's limited by temporal sampling of the ECMWF output, which in that case renders most ECMWF snow maps worthless when you have thermal profiles that may not support snow over the entire 6-hour binning of QPF."

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Hard to tell with the black and white but the cms looks pretty amped like an inland runner. But it is far south with a low at New Orleans at 120 hours.

 

Yea, I think you would do ok with this setup.  Eastern NC might benefit from this type scenario as well.  I think for my area this would be a cold chasing moisture situation that would not work in our favor.

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If we ever get a hold of premium euro/euro ens member data, I'd love to do some nice displays with it.  Maybe some interactive graphs.

 

Speaking of which, we've found a way to get param output for a given lat/lon as you would to build a meteogram but instead I'll build it on my end and utilize some interactive graphing tools, (i.e. highcharts).  Expect that in the coming weeks!

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I am concerned that the Euro showed such a great solution last night. I would feel better if it would have kept the suppressed solution longer. The fact that the GFS has been mostly showing Miller B crap, which nicely follows the tendency of the season so far makes me lean toward that being a more likely scenario. It hope it continues to remain somewhat suppressed on the Euro.

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