buckeyefan1 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Keep the discussion on topic and let the model madness continue here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I could careless with the GFS shows. Lets see what the Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Also, brad posted this on facebook. I assume it's safe for here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 UKMet is fairly weak and north...looks similar to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 UKMet is fairly weak and north...looks similar to the GFSThere's no reason why it shouldn't be. The pattern's too progressive or it to really dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Hard to tell with the black and white but the cms looks pretty amped like an inland runner. But it is far south with a low at New Orleans at 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Black and white CMC image’s are out. IT’s hard to tell details, but it takes 1010mb low over New Orleans Thursday morning to a 988mb low off the new england coast on Friday morning. The CMC spawns this storm without the help of the southern stream wave we’ve been watching. It just has a boat load more northern energy diving into the trough, along with a much sharper west coast ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Also, brad posted this on facebook. I assume it's safe for here: Yeah been looking at those on wxbell. Pretty awesome to have output for each individual Euro Ensemble member. The only thing I'm leery of with the snowfall output is the wxbell algorithm for snow, but it's still really nice to have the QPF on there for each member. There's a separate page that just has QPF for each member, regardless of ptype. Here's an explanation I saw posted on the suspect wxbell algorithm for snow..."the raw ECMWF output has a categorical yes/no for a series of p-types -- if for a given timestep, if snow=yes, he sums up the liquid equivalent and applies a 10:1 ratio -- this causes some issues because just because the categorical p-type is snow at say 18z, doesn't mean that it was snow for the entire 6-hour time step for the output -- that's simply how to end up getting more snow even if the thermal profiles don't support it -- it's either sloppiness on Maue's part or he's limited by temporal sampling of the ECMWF output, which in that case renders most ECMWF snow maps worthless when you have thermal profiles that may not support snow over the entire 6-hour binning of QPF." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Hard to tell with the black and white but the cms looks pretty amped like an inland runner. But it is far south with a low at New Orleans at 120 hours. Yea, I think you would do ok with this setup. Eastern NC might benefit from this type scenario as well. I think for my area this would be a cold chasing moisture situation that would not work in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Yea, I think you would do ok with this setup. Eastern NC might benefit from this type scenario as well. I think for my area this would be a cold chasing moisture situation that would not work in our favor.its a northern stream dominate like the gfs miller b shaft for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Question: The GEFS PSD in the model center...is that the GFS 2.0? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Also, brad posted this on facebook. I assume it's safe for here: Dr Maue at Weatherbell produces those for 74 location points in North Carolina. They are very interesting to review. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 FWIW - GFS remains looking rather warm in the SE going into the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Question: The GEFS PSD in the model center...is that the GFS 2.0? http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/jeffrey.s.whitaker/refcst/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 It's amazing how different the Euro and the GFS are. Have to watch to see if the Euro holds serve and keeps the trend going. Hopefully, that will be the case and the GFS will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Anxiously awaiting the 12z doc and more importantly the 12z euro ensmbles latter this afternoon. The euro ensembles have been consistent the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 If we ever get a hold of premium euro/euro ens member data, I'd love to do some nice displays with it. Maybe some interactive graphs. Speaking of which, we've found a way to get param output for a given lat/lon as you would to build a meteogram but instead I'll build it on my end and utilize some interactive graphing tools, (i.e. highcharts). Expect that in the coming weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/jeffrey.s.whitaker/refcst/ Awesome! At 0z last night, it was pretty bullish on our event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 One negative from this run is it seems like there's alot more spread in the 12z GEFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Found you a good GEFS member This is what you want to see. Strong confluence overhead with a deepening southern trough... separate stream... cyclogenesis in the gulf. Good stuff here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Found you a good GEFS member Yes. I am storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Oh mercy that's a good run.... GEFS member p003 people. Wishcast it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 12z Euro looks less amped with the shortwave out west and a tad south out to 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I am concerned that the Euro showed such a great solution last night. I would feel better if it would have kept the suppressed solution longer. The fact that the GFS has been mostly showing Miller B crap, which nicely follows the tendency of the season so far makes me lean toward that being a more likely scenario. It hope it continues to remain somewhat suppressed on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Oh mercy that's a good run.... GEFS member p003 people. Wishcast it. Wow! Shift it a tad east and it would be even better. But I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 96 hour EC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Is that suppression city? Looks good to my untrained eye at this timeframe!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Should someone make a separate thread for the 1/03 event? Kinda want to discuss pattern but I think the pattern posts will get lost in PBP posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 12Z Doc is warmer and way different at the surface from its 0Z run. Very inconsistent as is common this far out. Only chance is the backlash cr*p. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Is that suppression city? Looks good to my untrained eye at this timeframe!? Too early to tell,I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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