earthlight Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Not trying to jump the gun, but realistically does this have any KU potential or is this going to be more run of the mill (4-8") and how well could things turn out in the best case. Throwing out numbers at this juncture is irresponsible. Can't say whether this has KU potential yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 hr 96 gfs looks very potent coming out of the midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 gfs has some light snow moving in wed night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 hr 102 light snow for all…this is around 12am thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 7am thursday light snow continues…this has a classic miller b look right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Looks like some overrunning before the main miller B show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 hr 114 secondary starting to get together east of acy….this looks a bit far north for us…we kind of in a sucker hole….from ttn-south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Nice overrunning through 114...looks like a late developer. We might catch the edge of the CCB this run. Northern stream energy coming into the main trough at 114 hours so by 120 the sfc low should be deepening rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 hr 114 secondary starting to get together east of acy….this looks a bit far north for us…we kind of in a sucker hole….from ttn-south... It's disjointed aloft for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 hr 117 gets going for nyc-sne…..sucker hole is central nj and southern nj….sne going to get crushed…we need development further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The N stream is just a few hours behind so it never really gets going. Signal is still there...I wouldn't worry too much about this run. These are the changes aloft that I have been mentioning will occur...and this should be verify what a few of us were saying earlier...that it's way too early to talk amounts or any specifics like that. Too many variables and potential changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 This is where we want it right now supressed and not amped up yet. Its still trending so that is the best development yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 It's disjointed aloft for sure. It seems like it has sped up in time….okay run….but would like to see the transfer further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 hr 117 gets going for nyc-sne…..sucker hole is central nj and southern nj….sne going to get crushed…we need development further south It's not necessarily about it being farther south. Look at the backside of the main trough at 120 hours..all the northern stream energy is soaring south and east but the lead fort barely escaped over New England already. It's just a few hours off with the phasing and the sooner that northern stream energy comes in, the sooner the surface low starts rapidly deepening and the sooner we see the cyclonic development. GFS is just a little sloppy...but we've seen this before.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 This is where we want it right now supressed and not amped up yet. Its still trending so that is the best development yet I don't think its really suppressed. Its a big hit for sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The risk with these is the development can get goin late and it gets aimed at new England. Euro control hinted at ths earlier not every run will b a strike but u don't want ths to trend too much further Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 It's not necessarily about it being farther south. Look at the backside of the main trough at 120 hours..all the northern stream energy is soaring south and east but the lead fort barely escaped over New England already. It's just a few hours off with the phasing and the sooner that northern stream energy comes in, the sooner the surface low starts rapidly deepening and the sooner we see the cyclonic development. GFS is just a little sloppy...but we've seen this before.. thanks john….hopefully the euro holds serve, wonder if this turns into a colder version of feb 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 It's not necessarily about it being farther south. Look at the backside of the main trough at 120 hours..all the northern stream energy is soaring south and east but the lead fort barely escaped over New England already. It's just a few hours off with the phasing and the sooner that northern stream energy comes in, the sooner the surface low starts rapidly deepening and the sooner we see the cyclonic development. GFS is just a little sloppy...but we've seen this before.. Tommorow if the EURO and especially monday keeps on trending to a amped up miller B that delivers a solution for NJ up the coast which requires that few hours earlier phase like you stated earlier ill be on this storms train. The GFS is known for sniffing a storm out in the LR and then sniffing something else that makes it go dumb, the EURO has been consistent so far. However, i will say the 0z have ever so slightly improved from 12z/18z so were not far off at all for this being atleast a MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Gfs is also much warmer. Temps in mid 30s, cold air comes in behind the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 That's the problem with Miller B's, someone's gonna get the shaft, but there's plenty of time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Gfs is also much warmer. Temps in mid 30s, cold air comes in behind the system Makes sense with the broad low pressure farther north as opposed to a more consolidated low pressure system organized to our south this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The GFS does not show a big hit for anyone even SNE Good news is that this outcome is the UNAMPED version... Bad news is it's not amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 That's the problem with Miller B's, someone's gonna get the shaft, but there's plenty of time left. DT always says "someone always screws the pooch" with Miller Bs, often times its that ACY-TTN corridor too. One thing that worries me tonight is not seeing the NAM be overly amped at 84 hours, its definitely sharper at 500mb than the GFS but the fact its only marginally so makes me think the flat solutions are still very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Throwing out numbers at this juncture is irresponsible. Can't say whether this has KU potential yet. That's true. All we can say from looking at the 00Z GFS is that it paints an extended period of light snow over the NYC area starting four days from now. Temps also look good and below 32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The GFS does not show a big hit for anyone even SNE Good news is that this outcome is the UNAMPED version... Bad news is it's not amped Well I don't know if it's bad news really. If this was 3 days out it could be. Regardless, expectations should be kept low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 GGEM looks great. 998 low of VA, everyone NYC S and E gets over 1" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 GGEM looks great. 998 low of VA, everyone NYC S and E gets over 1" QPF. Awesome. Sounds more like the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 132 That's a pretty close call. I'd say that's easily a MECS. Still waiting for at least Monday Night for any actual results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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