Superstorm93 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 27 of the ECMWF Ensembles have warning criteria snows for NYC and the surrounding region... With over five days left, I'd say that's pretty decent. Still would like the OP to show a quicker/stronger redevelopment of the secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 This somehow manages to slip off the coast with only moderate precipitation. But what a look.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 This somehow manages to slip off the coast with only moderate precipitation. But what a look.. nvg10.500.126.namer.gif John that is very close to becoming a VERY big snowstorm for the NE/tristate. A little more digging sooner and "the rest is history" like they say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 This event would have zero chance if not for the -NAO because of that energy racing SE through WRN Canada which is basically flattening the western ridge, but thanks to the 50/50 feature in ERN Canada it cannot get east as quickly as it otherwise would...the flattening of the WRN ridge concerns me a bit although the amplification of it is still enough on most guidance that this would be able to come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Yeah, the Feb. 5-6 storm was by far the worst, a trace for NYC will places in central NJ had 2 plus feet. I think this storm even if does go well SE of us can still produce some decent snows for us, it's a very broad LP system on the GFS and shows decent snow for everyone. Some pictures from that storm: http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photo2010a.html I was in Cape May where it snowed heavily. By the time I got to New York City, it was mainly overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 How similar is the surface map to the Lindsay storm. Set up not strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The GFS like the Euro holds out the possibility that NYC could possibly dip below 10 after the storm as the NW to NNW flow over the snow cover brings cold air down the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 How similar is the surface map to the Lindsay storm. Set up not strength colder surface temperatures to start...warmer Ocean temperatures off shore...1969 was a classic redevelopment in the majic zone...the snow map is similat to last years storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 How similar is the surface map to the Lindsay storm. Set up not strength The 1969 Lindsay snowstorm was just barely cold enough for snow and started as rain per Kocin's recollections as a boy in Smithtown...south of NYC very little snow fell. The Twin Forks of LI were mostly rain. IIRC, Upton had over a foot, but just 8 miles to their SE, KFOK saw around 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 hard to believe but this is now the number 1 analog for the Jan 3 event - Jan 7 1994 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F120&flg= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 hard to believe but this is now the number 1 analog for the Jan 3 event - Jan 7 1994 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F120&flg= From what I remember, that was a crippling ice storm for many, at least in my hometown of Philadelphia. Interesting analogue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 hard to believe but this is now the number 1 analog for the Jan 3 event - Jan 7 1994 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F120&flg= January 2nd 1996 as the second analog...Both had more ice than snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 From what I remember, that was a crippling ice storm for many, at least in my hometown of Philadelphia. Interesting analogue. I think that was also - here in NEPA - the first hit in what would be a January that produced over 40" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 You can actually see the reason 94' is the #1 analog, check out the similarities with 94 and todays EURO run. Jan 4 1994 Todays 12z EURO @ 144 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 January 2nd 1996 as the second analog...Both had more ice than snow... Unc you have to look at the ENSO listed the 1996 storm was a cold ENSO the next Neutral Enso listed is feb 8, 1994 that storm delivered between 7 - 12 inches around the area http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F120&flg= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 1/7/1994 was the biggest ice storm in the last 40 years it started out as freezing rain then changed to sleet and grauple...then back to freezing rain at night...At least a half inch of ice accumulated...1/2/1996 was a mix of snow/sleet and freezing rain...both storms were juicy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 You can actually see the reason 94' is the #1 analog, check out the similarities with 94 and todays EURO run. Jan 4 1994 94.gif Todays 12z EURO @ 144 hrs 941.gif this setup has a more favorable blocking pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Unc you have to look at the ENSO listed the 1996 storm was a cold ENSO the next Neutral Enso listed is feb 8, 1994 that storm delivered between 7 - 12 inches around the area http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F120&flg= yea I missed that...2/8-9/1994 was a long storm...it started as heavy snow but changed to sleet and freezing rain at times...2/11/94 was the second of two storms that week...it also ended as sleet and freezing rain in my area...Central Park had 21" on the ground after the 2/11 event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 this is the 0Z NAM FWIW - notice hour 84 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2013122900/namconus_reflectivity_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 this is the 0Z NAM FWIW - notice hour 84 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2013122900/namconus_reflectivity_us.html That low in the Gulf is packing some serious moisture. EDIT: Based on the H5, there seems to be more energy emerging out of the Midwest and the Gulf. There's more digging going on too. Gonna be an interesting few days. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013122900&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=084 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Not trying to jump the gun, but realistically does this have any KU potential or is this going to be more run of the mill (4-8") and how well could things turn out in the best case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Not trying to jump the gun, but realistically does this have any KU potential or is this going to be more run of the mill (4-8") and how well could things turn out in the best case. This does have the possibility to be a KU if all comes together properly. Models are trending that way so it is technically on the table but do not want to jump the gun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Not trying to jump the gun, but realistically does this have any KU potential or is this going to be more run of the mill (4-8") and how well could things turn out in the best case. At this point. I wouldn't expect anymore than 12" of snow. Or even 10" of snow. Just being cautious ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 This does have the possibility to be a KU if all comes together properly. Models are trending that way so it is technically on the table but do not want to jump the gun Forgive my ignorance but what does KU stand for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Forgive my ignorance but what does KU stand for? Kocin-Uccellini http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NESIS_storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 KU stands for Kocin & Uccellini. They are two of the most well respected winter weather experts in the world. They pioneered the NESIS rating system for northeast snowstorms and their book is considered the winter weather bible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 At this point. I wouldn't expect anymore than 12" of snow. Or even 10" of snow. Just being cautious ATM. Best point of view right now. If monday these models start showing the BIG hits then we may start throwing around big numbers ( POSSIBLY KU ) stay tuned is all i can say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Best point of view right now. If monday these models start showing the BIG hits then we may start throwing around big numbers ( POSSIBLY KU ) stay tuned is all i can say I wouldn't start throwing around any numbers until at least tuesday. A 20-30 mile shift one way or another can be huge for snow fall with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I wouldn't start throwing around any numbers until at least tuesday. A 20-30 mile shift one way or another can be huge for snow fall with this system.I can agree with that as this pattern is volatile and small changes in the phasing timing can have biggest implications in the final outcome on the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheticus Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 All of this talk of 1994 would certainly put the new PSE&G Long Island right to the test. I for one am hoping for a calm January given the uncertainty in the Long Island grid changeover on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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