earthlight Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 120hr H5 panel across the Conus is a pretty classic MECS signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 To say the least...things will bounce around the next few days...don't hug this run quite yet As they say, it's all downhill from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 120hr H5 panel across the Conus is a pretty classic MECS signal. we get a nice gulf moisture fetch we'll have more QPF to deal with. speaking out loud and just stating optimal liquid levels for this storm. VERY encouraged with this run, I know you are john Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 To say the least...things will bounce around the next few days...don't hug this run quite yet Being the bullseye this far out is never reassuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 This reminds me of the December 2010 blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 This reminds me of the December 2010 blizzard Yea but a shorter time it took for the models too latch onto a solution (assuming this will be the outcome) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 eh, we'd watch from the sidelines as boston gets 2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 eh, we'd watch from the sidelines as boston gets 2 feet If sidelines means hours of heavy snow and 8-12" amounts, then sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Being the bullseye this far out is never reassuring. The PV and transient NAO gives me some peace of mind because I would think this would trend warmer as we got closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 This reminds me of the December 2010 blizzard Dude. C'mon. Think before you post this kind of stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Being the bullseye this far out is never reassuring. This is what I'm thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Being the bullseye this far out is never reassuring. The Euro split the PV and sent a piece far enough east of Newfoundland to allow the eastern trough to go negative tilt in time. I like that Davis Strait block showing up and hopefully as we get closer it still looks this good without some change spoiling the party. The ensembles should be interesting to see. But like you, jackpot solutions this far out make me nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 This reminds me of the December 2010 blizzard Evolution is different. This is a Miller B on the Euro while the Boxing Day system was a classic Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Can't have blizzards and blizzard warnings every season as we have become accustomed to this past decade. I'll be happy with 3-6 guaranteed inches and temperatures in the low single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 This is a very dynamic situation as one can see from the wide spread among the ensemble members and even the big swing in the ECMWF from 0z to 12z. I don't think one can rule in or rule out the idea of a significant snowfall with much confidence. Certainly, the opportunity is on the table and, at least IMO, that's a good thing. Nevertheless, caution is still in order. Hopefully, subsequent runs over the next few days will pin down the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 This is what I'm thinking If it was the gfs then I'd agree but if the euro latches on to this solution i'm fine with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 It's bothered me for days that the Euro had nothing at all, good to see it finally show something. Good to see the GFS and the Euro both show storms in the same run. Refreshing for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 What's the timeline look like in accordance with the gfs or euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 While its certainly easy to get exciting with a run like the 12z operational Euro (and rightfully so), lets give it another day or two before really getting excited. This potential storm is still 5-6 days away which on the big picture isn't alot but there is enough time for this to trend unfavorably for us, just something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 If this were 2005, I'd agree, but Euro over last 5 years has been very unpredictable. If it was the gfs then I'd agree but if the euro latches on to this solution i'm fine with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 one has to be encouraged by the models and the trending (slightly) -NAO over the next week. The intrusion of arctic air plus the down turn of the NAO COULD be just right for us. if you look at the NAO over the last six to eight weeks, we've not seen many spikes downward. The last notable spike in negative value was back in October. This was true even around thanksgiving week when we saw our first real taste of arctic air. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 If it was the gfs then I'd agree but if the euro latches on to this solution i'm fine with that Agree with you there. I will say, if it shows this again tonight I'll be pretty happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 It's still nice to see, certainly when it feels nothing like winter today, mid 50s right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Just for sh*ts and giggles, Euro snow maps show 10-12" for most of NNJ and 8-10" out towards Trenton area, about the same for the city and a bit less eastern sections. Warning criteria snowfall for all interests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Maybe more confident when models have consensus, but - "not for sure". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 We don't toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Euro sure has been a model of consistency lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Euro sure has been a model of consistency lately.Two days ago it had frozen precip into the city for tomorrow's event. The model has had its share of struggles as of late. It's less that the euro is that much better and more that the other models are that much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Having both models come around to the Miller B idea is great to see , my only reservation going forward or how I see this could break down , is the phasing takes place a little later and its a NE bomb leaving us w a lighter snows . The GFS ensembles hint at it a bit , Just happy to see the Euro finally get off the Miller A idea , so suppression idea is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The euro hasn't been that good lately. But hopefully this is the start of more consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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