January 2 - 3 Winter Storm Potential

[WE GOT HIM]

 

Yeah, we need the winds to stay up to keep the cold air drainage from the north going. The GFS still has light winds

by 12z Saturday and a surface temp of -1 in NYC. Fresh snowcover and a N to NNW wind continuing until

early Saturday would really help us out.

Date: 5 day AVN valid 12Z SAT  4 JAN 14Station: KNYCLatitude:   40.78Longitude: -73.97-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1024    76 -18.5 -20.2  86  1.8 -18.7 326   7 253.0 253.1 253.0 255.0  0.75

if we get a big snow pack i think its possible. Would love to see a negative #...last time was 1994 right?

[WE GOT HIM]

NAM deff improved over 12z but I would still would like to see more. Still pretty far off from the Euro.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

GGEM is a bit disorganized as well but I would take that with a grain of salt beyond 48hrs too

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

NAM deff improved over 12z but I would still would like to see more. Still pretty far off from the Euro.

IMO I think the name is where the gfs was this time yesterday give it a day to catch up

[yhbrooklyn]

if we get a big snow pack i think its possible. Would love to see a negative #...last time was 1994 right?

Yep. Got to 1 twice in 2004.

[DaveTinNY]

I enjoyed the breakdown, Dsnowx53. Thanks!

[David-LI]

I don't think the model/discussion double thread is working because people are posting discussion and model info on both and vice versa. I suggest leaving it just one thread.

[bluewave]

if we get a big snow pack i think its possible. Would love to see a negative #...last time was 1994 right?

 

Yeah, 1994 was the last subzero reading in NYC. I would like the high take a little longer to come in so the 

winds stay up like they did in January 2004. But if the winds go calm, the bottom will fall out in areas 

that normally radiate well away from the city with fresh snowcover.

[Superstorm93]

Excellent AFD from Upton

 

 

 

STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATE WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACH OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND GIVE A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPING
SNOW.

MEANWHILE...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THERE IS VAST UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT POSITIONS
OF LOW PRESSURE AREA BUT MODELS AGREE THEY ALL TAKE A NORTHEAST
TRACK AND MAINLY OFFSHORE.

IT APPEARS THE GFS...NAM...AND CMC KEEP ONE LOW THAT STAYS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. THEY MOVE THE LOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND WELL EAST OF THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK
TAKING AN APPROXIMATE TRACK OF THE CENTER THROUGH 40N/-65W. THE 00Z
AND 12Z ECMWF HAVE THE MOST VIVID OF SOLUTIONS RIGHT
NOW...PORTRAYING A STRONGER LOW IN THE APPALACHIANS AND REDEVELOPING
IT OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC...WITH RAPID DEEPENING NEAR THE
40N/-70W BENCHMARK. 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS SEEN ACCOMPANYING THIS WITH A CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE CENTER OF
THE ARCTIC HIGH RELATIVE TO THE LOW. HOWEVER...RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY IS PRESENT IN THE ECMWF WITH APPROXIMATE DIFFERENCES
OF AT LEAST 100 TO 200 MILES BETWEEN LOWS BETWEEN RUNS FROM 06Z FRI
THROUGH 18Z FRI.

MODELS ALSO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AT 500MB.
ECMWF IS THE DEEPEST WHILE CMC IS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
GFS SHOWING A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE CMC AND THE ECMWF.

THESE DIFFERENCES SHOULD DECREASE WITH NEWER SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS
AS INITIALIZATIONS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVATIONS. A
REMARKABLE ASPECT THOUGH IS THAT LOOKING ALOFT AT THE 250MB
LEVEL...THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERN STREAM JET GETS REINFORCED AND
APPEARS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS HAS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT. SO A STRONG JET WILL BE
PRESENT GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL DEFINITELY LEAD TO
CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE JET MOVES ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

ADDING TO THIS POTENTIAL IS THE CLASSIC STRONG CURVED HIGH DEPICTED
BY ALL MODELS IN THE CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
CANADA. ALSO...THE GULF STREAM OFFSHORE THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL
ALWAYS DELIVER ENERGY TO LOWS AND TROUGHS MOVING NEAR SO THE LOW
WILL DEEPEN. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...CONSIDERING THE
UNCERTAINTY...GREATER WEIGHT OF FORECAST WITH WPC AT THIS POINT AS
WELL AS CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE ECMWF IS THE WETTEST OF SOLUTIONS WITH POTENTIAL BANDING DUE TO
ITS CURRENT DEPICTED TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS AND CMC KEEP BANDING
WELL OFFSHORE BUT CONVEY PERSISTENT QPF DRIVEN BY FACTORS ALOFT MORE
SO THAN AT THE SURFACE SEEING HOW FAR AWAY THE LOW IS. AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS THAT SNOW IS THE MAIN PTYPE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
DURATION HERE COULD BE EXTENSIVE WITH SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH MOST
INTENSE AND STEADY SNOW SHOWN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
AGAIN UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODELS SHOWS A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING FOR ENDING TIME WITH THE CMC TO AS LATE AS FRIDAY
EVENING WITH THE ECMWF.

&&

[jm1220]

Yeah, 1994 was the last subzero reading in NYC. I would like the high take a little longer to come in so the 

winds stay up like they did in January 2004. But if the winds go calm, the bottom will fall out in areas 

that normally radiate well away from the city with fresh snowcover.

It would be extreme to get Manhattan below zero unless the conditions are about perfect, but I think odds are high for below 10 at least, maybe even below 5. Out further on Long Island though it should get below zero, especially if we have snowcover of a few inches or more. Tonight's and tomorrow's runs are crucial-hopefully we continue seeing the strong digging and phasing of energy.

[winterwarlock]

I don't think the model/discussion double thread is working because people are posting discussion and model info on both and vice versa. I suggest leaving it just one thread.

 

 

agree with this. I think people are forgetting why this stopped in the first place..it becomes too messy

[patrick05]

some changes with NWS OKX, they have now put my area for all snow for Thu and into Fri, previously it was wintry mix.. also lowered the low on Friday night to 7F...

[bluewave]

It would be extreme to get Manhattan below zero unless the conditions are about perfect, but I think odds are high for below 10 at least, maybe even below 5. Out further on Long Island though it should get below zero, especially if we have snowcover of a few inches or more. Tonight's and tomorrow's runs are crucial-hopefully we continue seeing the strong digging and phasing of energy.

 

Yeah, I wouldn't want to make the call until we get to within a few days of Saturday as everything needs to be perfect

in the short term. Long Beach usually gets a beautiful display of Arctic sea smoke if the temps dip below 5 degrees

over the Ocean. The last time that I got to see it in Long Beach was January of 2004.

[WE GOT HIM]

Yeah, I wouldn't want to make the call until we get to within a few days of Saturday as everything needs to be perfect

in the short term. Long Beach usually gets a beautiful display of Arctic sea smoke if the temps dip below 5 degrees

over the Ocean. The last time that I got to see it in Long Beach was January of 2004.

Wow, you have to take some pics for us man =)

[RU848789]

I don't think the model/discussion double thread is working because people are posting discussion and model info on both and vice versa. I suggest leaving it just one thread.

Agreed - I much prefer all the storm/model discussion in one thread - much easier to navigate between pages of one thread than between multiple threads, IMO.

[TWCCraig]

Wow, you have to take some pics for us man =)

 

OT but they get sea smoke in Florida a lot with the Gulf stream there and cold air coming in from the NW. I'd love to see the Great South Bay freeze over again. It did last year: http://imageshack.us/a/img203/5063/img027gh.jpg

 

The NAM which barely gives is any snow has temps only in the teens as of 06z Sat morning. I like to use the NAM for temps but right now it's skewed because it's not getting the storm right and there's no snow cover after the storm.

[jm1220]

Yeah, I wouldn't want to make the call until we get to within a few days of Saturday as everything needs to be perfect

in the short term. Long Beach usually gets a beautiful display of Arctic sea smoke if the temps dip below 5 degrees

over the Ocean. The last time that I got to see it in Long Beach was January of 2004.

With a north wind we can do it here. I remember seeing the massive ice chunks developing over the Channel that January-don't think I've seen that since.

[Rtd208]

I don't think the model/discussion double thread is working because people are posting discussion and model info on both and vice versa. I suggest leaving it just one thread.

I agree, its much easier to utilize one thread instead of having to bounce back and forth between two threads.

[Superstorm93]

 

 

413 PM EST MON DEC 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN

CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LIKELIHOOD IS INCREASING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW LATE

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IS

POSSIBLE.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AS

UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Are we doing the gfs play by play here or in the model thread? V

[bluewave]

Wow, you have to take some pics for us man =)

 

Not sure I will be down in Long Beach on time  Saturday to get photos should it dip below 5.

 

With a north wind we can do it here. I remember seeing the massive ice chunks developing over the Channel that January-don't think I've seen that since.

 

Yeah, the magic temperature seems to be right around 5 degrees or lower to get the display going. I was down on the beach

in January 2004 when it got down to the low single digits and there was a nice display. I knew a local

plumber that morning that had non-stop busted pipe calls.

[IsentropicLift]

Are we doing the gfs play by play here or in the model thread? V

Model thread

[LnbWx]

Are we doing the gfs play by play here or in the model thread? V

 

Being done in the model thread.

[Doorman]

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml

 

 

OPC  96hr outlook

 

pick it apart if you will .....I see MECS all the way thru!

 

 

990mb  just inside benchmark

(xtrap to 970mb}

 

[REDMK6GLI]

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml

 

 

OPC  96hr outlook

 

pick it apart if you will .....I see MECS all the way thru!

 

 

990mb  just inside benchmark

(xtrap to 970mb}

 

A_96hrbw.gif

 

YUP! looks pretty good and the GFS while it looked like CFI was a step towards the euro

[BxEngine]

Didnt want this to get buried in one specific model thread...but what is that initial batch of precip from the city north early Thurs morning from?

[yhbrooklyn]

I've been telling people that no real snow until Thursday night. That's looking wrong now, isn't it?

[dmb8021]

Upton has issued watches:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
352 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2013

...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE...

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-178-010500-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0005.140102T2300Z-140103T2300Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-
EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-
EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN QUEENS-
352 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...PASSAIC...HUDSON...BERGEN...ESSEX...AND UNION
COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY. ORANGE...PUTNAM...ROCKLAND...WESTCHESTER
NEW YORK...BRONX...RICHMOND...KINGS AND QUEENS COUNTIES IN NEW
YORK.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TIMING...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW...WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[Absolute Humidity]

Not bad, not bad at all.

[SnoSki14]

Mt. Holly upped amounts a bit, now 4-6" instead of 2-4", sounds like upper WWA criteria, borderline warning criteria.