Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If im not mistaken wasn't the UKMET the first model to show more of a miller A It did have the low in Alabama yesterday while the euro was in steeler country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 the most significant part of the 12z cycle was having the gfs join the bigger storm party Yeah it's nice to have the two major globals in fairly good agreement on the evolution, though I expect we're still going to see more slight shifts in the next couple days. Usually by D4, the general idea will be close to reality but we're not close enough to breathe a sigh of relief just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 i think we should start threads for the big model cycles to reduce clutter. we can start at 0z Co-Signed. Really helps people like myself when folks like you provide some specific analysis the models in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The 15z SREF's are definitely wetter than 09z but still pretty dry as compared to the rest of the latest guidance. The 15z SREF's are definitely wetter than 09z but still pretty dry as compared to the rest of the latest guidance.Why do you rely them - they are almost never correct.Also if you hate winter why are you in this forum?Just curious.Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Its gonna be real close if NYC sees a sub zero reading....if we can clear out very quickly behind the system Friday evening and have a clear night under that gusty north flow we may do it, if we don't however and have to rely on the high overhead the next night it wont happen, NYC cannot go below 0 under radiational cooling....may see alot of LI though see their coldest lows since the 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 What are the chances of the 500 low to being closed off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Its gonna be real close if NYC sees a sub zero reading....if we can clear out very quickly behind the system Friday evening and have a clear night under that gusty north flow we may do it, if we don't however and have to rely on the high overhead the next night it wont happen, NYC cannot go below 0 under radiational cooling....may see alot of LI though see their coldest lows since the 80s. i think it's been discussed before but what wind does NYC usually get its coldest temps from, the NW or purely N-erly wind?? i know people mentioned the effects of the Hudson River and also some downsloping?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 i think it's been discussed before but what wind does NYC usually get its coldest temps from, the NW or purely N-erly wind?? i know people mentioned the effects of the Hudson River and also some downsloping?? With N winds (Hudson Vally drain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 i think it's been discussed before but what wind does NYC usually get its coldest temps from, the NW or purely N-erly wind?? i know people mentioned the effects of the Hudson River and also some downsloping?? North wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 What are the chances of the 500 low to being closed off? Not likely. ATM flow is too progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The 15z SREF's are definitely wetter than 09z but still pretty dry as compared to the rest of the latest guidance. Why do you rely them - they are almost never correct. Also if you hate winter why are you in this forum? Just curious. Rossi The SREF's are another valuable piece of modeling if you know how to use them. And hate winter weather? Really?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The SREF's are another valuable piece of modeling if you know how to use them. And hate winter weather? Really?? Yea, use them inside 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The SREF's are another valuable piece of modeling if you know how to use them. And hate winter weather? Really?? I can make use of the NAM/NavGEM and even CRAS... have no clue how to use the SREFs beyond 48 hours anymore, they do not tend to really bias one direction or the other they just seem consistently all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Thank you Metsfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Just finished a writeup on the storm. http://www.nymetroweather.com/2013/12/30/confidence-increasing-significant-snowstorm-thursday-night-friday/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Any updated NAM info for 18z? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Any updated NAM info for 18z? Rossi Looks pretty similar through 45 with a little more gulf moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The 18z NAM looks nothing like the Euro or the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Just finished a writeup on the storm. http://www.nymetroweather.com/2013/12/30/confidence-increasing-significant-snowstorm-thursday-night-friday/ Great write up man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Just finished a writeup on the storm. http://www.nymetroweather.com/2013/12/30/confidence-increasing-significant-snowstorm-thursday-night-friday/ Great read and glad to see your on board my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The 18z NAM looks nothing like the Euro or the GFS. Any seasoned amatuer knows to look at the NAM with a sly eye past 48 hrs anyway in almost every situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Don't us the NAM at this range , its a short range product that should be used inside 48 hours . Not many pp turn to the NAM for guidance at 72- 84 hours IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nam has a little more digging at 57, much more moisture off Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Any seasoned amatuer knows to look at the NAM with a sly eye past 48 hrs anyway in almost every situation haha, yeah the NAM is all onboard for a disjointed mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Don't us the NAM at this range , its a short range product that should be used inside 48 hours . Not many pp turn to the NAM for guidance at 72- 84 hours IMO It's generally very poor outside 36+ hours, but it still can be used to look for general trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's generally very poor outside 36+ hours, but it still can be used to look for general trends. I still don't like how its fairly flat at this range when it typically is amped, there was a storm a couple or three years ago where the NAM refused to budge and then about 72 hours out everything else went suppressed...as crazy as it is, sometimes one model going against its usual grain can mean something, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 use this thread for the 18z models: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42188-january-2-3-winter-storm-model-discussion-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nam has a little more digging at 57, much more moisture off Florida dont think you are being objective, hr57 vs hr63 (12Z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Its gonna be real close if NYC sees a sub zero reading....if we can clear out very quickly behind the system Friday evening and have a clear night under that gusty north flow we may do it, if we don't however and have to rely on the high overhead the next night it wont happen, NYC cannot go below 0 under radiational cooling....may see alot of LI though see their coldest lows since the 80s. Yeah, we need the winds to stay up to keep the cold air drainage from the north going. The GFS still has light winds by 12z Saturday and a surface temp of -1 in NYC. Fresh snowcover and a N to NNW wind continuing until early Saturday would really help us out. Early January 2004 was a northerly wind that stayed up without any snowcover around the region and NYC got down to +1. But the high coming east quicker would probably mean the spots that radiate would do much better. Date: 5 day AVN valid 12Z SAT 4 JAN 14 Station: KNYCLatitude: 40.78Longitude: -73.97-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1024 76 -18.5 -20.2 86 1.8 -18.7 326 7 253.0 253.1 253.0 255.0 0.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 dont think you are being objective, hr57 vs hr63 (12Z) yea that's what im comparing it too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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