Rjay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Any word on possible ratios (verbatim of course)? I know what we need for good snow growth and temp profiles but am still learning to read soundings correctly. I know maps are pretty bad and they usually go off 10-1 ratios but I have a feeling they will be higher than that. I am not qualified to give an accurate guess. I feel as if this isn't a weenie question as we are not more than 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Earthlight is one the most all around best mets who doesnt have a red tag on this board. When he jumps on board like that he knows its something worth celebrating. Ill never debate that man when he puts his ass on the line because he usually backs it up with some great fact and meteorlogical information He's one of the best. Definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 When Earthlight talks I pay attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Any word on possible ratios (verbatim of course)? I know what we need for good snow growth and temp profiles but am still learning to read soundings correctly. I know maps are pretty bad and they usually go off 10-1 ratios but I have a feeling they will be higher than that. I am not qualified to give an accurate guess. I feel as if this isn't a weenie question as we are not more than 5 days out. I think the ratios could be a lot higher than 10:1 so even the Euro's snow amounts on its current run could be underdone for some. I could see 15:1 ratios if temps dive into the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The system could ramp up very quickly once the dynamics are in place. Remember, Boxing Day 2010 really maxed out over us-New England had to deal with numerous dryslots because the low bombed out too soon for them. Ditto here. We never did get heavy snowfall rates IMBY. Great winds though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Dont worry about qpf. A miller a out of the gulf will dump. And then factor in the ratio.. i could easily see 18 -24 provided the track is on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Dont worry about qpf. A miller a out of the gulf will dump. And then factor in the ratio.. i could easily see 18 -24 provided the track is on.. You dont know that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Ditto here. We never did get heavy snowfall rates IMBY. Great winds though. we are actually in a dry slot around 96 and 99. But the good news is that will have plenty of time to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 You dont know that at all. High ratio snow and 1 to 1.5 inches of liquid will produce a lot of snow. Whether it actually happens or not is a whole different story. A juicy Miller A should produce a lot of precipitation. Again, not saying it will actually happen. This could all go away by tomorrow afternoon's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 CPK as per Euro HR 90 2 M temp 20 850s Minus 3 .3 HR 96 2M temp 15 850`s Minus 10 .3 HR 108 2M temp 11 850`s Minus 10 .3 The 850s are barely colder than the surface. That could very well give excellent ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Dont worry about qpf. A miller a out of the gulf will dump. And then factor in the ratio.. i could easily see 18 -24 provided the track is on.. Banter thread dude. One can almost NEVER "easily see" 18-24 in the mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Interesting to see the Euro depiction. It also does seem to develop initially as a Miller hybrid you might say, but the overall look for us is of the Miller A variety with that Gulf origin/track. If there's one thing I stick with in these types of setups and that history has taught me is that you shouldn't get too excited at this point, but you also shouldn't pencil in or away any QPF if confidence in a track increases, especially in situations with potential overrunning followed by moisture laden lows coming from down south with Gulf influence. But the signs/signals are tantalizing. The H5 setup is really amazing to watch in it's evolution (and also the differences in the models and how they handle). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's incredibly frustrating having to sift through numerous banter is a serious discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Banter thread dude. One can almost NEVER "easily see" 18-24 in the mid atlantic. Half the garbage in this thread belongs in the banter... NJ is mid atlantic?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 High ratio snow and 1 to 1.5 inches of liquid will produce a lot of snow. Whether it actually happens or not is a whole different story. A juicy Miller A should produce a lot of precipitation. Again, not saying it will actually happen. This could all go away by tomorrow afternoon's runs. Thats what i was trying to say.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Half the garbage in this thread belongs in the banter... NJ is mid atlantic?? Geographically and culturally it certainly is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Half the garbage in this thread belongs in the banter... NJ is mid atlantic?? ummm yes. northern mid atlantic. definitely not new england. are you serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's incredibly frustrating having to sift through numerous banter is a serious discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's incredibly frustrating having to sift through numerous banter is a serious discussion thread. You have gotten a lot better this year but u had many occasions where you posted banter in the past. Lets the mods take care of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 You have gotten a lot better this year but u had many occasions where you posted banter in the past. Lets the mods take care of it. The mods are just as frustrated as I am and have given up to an extent. Nobody has time to sit here and delete posts constantly. Instead we should be policing ourselves. Think about every single post instead of just spouting whatever garbage pops into your head next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's incredibly frustrating having to sift through numerous banter is a serious discussion thread. Agreed. This event is looking pretty solid, but let's stick with the posters with access to the paid models (e.g. Euro) and the mets in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The mods are just as frustrated as I am and have given up to an extent. Nobody has time to sit here and delete posts constantly. Instead we should be policing ourselves. Think about every single post instead of just spouting whatever garbage pops into your head next. I really hope u aren't talking about me. Nevertheless, lets continue the convo on the upcoming storm. I was asking about possible ratios and admitting that even though I understand what's good for snow growth and temp profiles that I am not good at reading soundings yet. What's your opinion on ratios for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Can people stop talking about the posts that should be deleted and focus on the storm? The ECMWF has a classic H5 evolution w/ the northern vort swinging through the proverbial slot off the VA capes. Really digs southward this run, picking up gulf moisture, so the final product is hybrid miller b/a. The key to getting this solution is the western PNA amplification and the confluence holding over SE Canada via the 50-50 vortex and Greenland block. The upstream and downstream synoptic features are pretty classic for a significant to major storm intensification on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 i think we should start threads for the big model cycles to reduce clutter. we can start at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 i think we should start threads for the big model cycles to reduce clutter. we can start at 0z Yea I liked how we used to do it. You could also go back to prior runs to see trends etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Model discussion thread for this threat has been started continue there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Can people stop talking about the posts that should be deleted and focus on the storm? The ECMWF has a classic H5 evolution w/ the northern vort swinging through the proverbial slot off the VA capes. Really digs southward this run, picking up gulf moisture, so the final product is hybrid miller b/a. The key to getting this solution is the western PNA amplification and the confluence holding over SE Canada via the 50-50 vortex and Greenland block. The upstream and downstream synoptic features are pretty classic for a significant to major storm intensification on the east coast. the most significant part of the 12z cycle was having the gfs join the bigger storm party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 the most significant part of the 12z cycle was having the gfs join the bigger storm party If im not mistaken wasn't the UKMET the first model to show more of a miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Take all the info cut the totals in half and you will not be disappointed or maybe when nowcasting you will be surprised.Gents snowgoggles are intoxicating see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The 15z SREF's are definitely wetter than 09z but still pretty dry as compared to the rest of the latest guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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