Manny Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 A long duration storm, even with the GFS solution, with a full negative tilt this would be a long duration precip dumping storm. Back in the city, so excited for this one, there is an air to this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's probably a good thing not to be in the bullseye right now since we're still a good 3.5-4 days away from this. There's a lot of room for adjustments and I think the energy comes ashore tonight so we'll get better sampling. With some big dog solutions today even before 12z euro i think the southern stream is being sampled just fine and expect to be the same even when it comes on shore tonight. Like isotherm pointed that PNA spike really helped us. Expect the euro to show another big dog, im fairly confident in that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's probably a good thing not to be in the bullseye right now since we're still a good 3.5-4 days away from this. There's a lot of room for adjustments and I think the energy comes ashore tonight so we'll get better sampling. SNE looks to be in the bullseye...for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 NAVGEM is a bit weird. Keeps the trough positively titled the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 NAVGEM is a bit weird. Keeps the trough positively titled the entire time. I wouldn't give it much credit, ever. It has a known bias for being too far southeast and that makes it useful sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Very close to being a MECS bordeline HECS today yanks. This storm becomes a true miller A and is 50-100 miles west, yeesh what a storm we'll have to remember. PD2 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 IDK why I'm bothering to over analyze the NAVGEM but the lead vort outruns the rest of the energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Gfs ens are pretty similar to the operational. Mean has .5+ for qpf and .75+ along the immediate shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 this forum is going to explode since the euro coming up soon will show a HECS. Posts like these belong in the banter thread. Not trying to pick on anyone but we should keep this thread to serious model discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Gfs ens are pretty similar to the operational. Mean has .5+ for qpf and .75+ along the immediate shore The EURO quite honestly doesnt have to do very much to produce a HECS for us. 50-100 miles east and boom, a long duration Miller A Not wishcasting but were there and if this does become a miller A again stands a good chance to become a monster of a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 this forum is going to explode since the euro coming up soon will show a HECS. Eh. I'd stick with a MECS to borderline HECS as a possibility for the ECMWF's output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Only 1 of the 12z GFS ensemble members is a total whiff all the others are some sort of hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Only 1 of the 12z GFS ensemble members is a total whiff all the others are some sort of hit Another big signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I think the flow is too fast to talk HECS. H5 never closes off. The EURO quite honestly doesnt have to do very much to produce a HECS for us. 50-100 miles east and boom, a long duration Miller ANot wishcasting but were there and if this does become a miller A again stands a good chance to become a monster of a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I think the flow is too fast to talk HECS. H5 never closes off. Were not that far off and ALOT closer than yesterdays throwing in the towel runs you have to admit that bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I think the flow is too fast to talk HECS. H5 never closes off. Agree. If we had just the slightest bit of blocking to slow down the flow then a HECS would have been on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Another big signal. Indeed compared to where the models were yesterday in they're entirety yes its a BIG signal....oh and almost EURO time! Can you say site crash lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Attention will soon shift to the statistical forecast models. I'm optimistic for what lies ahead this week. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KLGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Not much of a poster but just a quick question here: Has there ever been a SECS type storm with temps in the single digits? Obviously we are waiting for the EURO now but based on current trends, what will be the forecasted temps during the peak of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Not much of a poster but just a quick question here: Has there ever been a SECS type storm with temps in the single digits? Obviously we are waiting for the EURO now but based on current trends, what will be the forecasted temps during the peak of the storm? Jan 05 had the storm start with temps in the single digits as did Jan 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 12z Euro low over the TX panhandle at hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Digging quite nicely at hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro really digging the energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hour 66 big phase, storm organizing over the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hr 66 low over Arkansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Can we possibly have one person doing the play by play and please refrain from omg this is going to be a huge run or crap this one is going to miss us until its done running? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hr 60 northern stream really digging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hour 72 digging all the way to the gulf. Miller A this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yes finally let ALLSNOW GO WITH IT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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