Absolute Humidity Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GGEM B & W's looks to be a little better than 10mm LE NYC. Less South and West. More North and East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Lol, if anything the convective feedback is lowering the totals. Based on the H5 depiction, the GFS was a 12-18" MECS. The convective feedback pulled a bunch of QPF off shore. The ens are going to be huge. Positive of that. Its not as crazy as it sounds , like in Jan 2005 this is coming out of the Northern branch and will travel the arctic boundary as per GFS Low level cold air will be drilling into this system and it will get colder as the strorm goes on and considering being 4 days out on the GFS this is wehere you would love to SLP from this model . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The GGEM is a big improvement at H5. Digs the northern vort down to Louisiana as well. We still get 4-5" probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The GGEM is a big improvement at H5. Digs the northern vort down to Louisiana as well. We still get 4-5" probably. Trends baby trends!! The Miller A idea is the best solution as we'll have TONS of moisture. The Euro should be interesting to say the least, im leaning towards it showing a Miller A as well since the pacific wave will be closer to the coast as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Trends baby trends!! The Miller A idea is the best solution as we'll have TONS of moisture. The Euro should be interesting to say the least, im leaning towards it showing a Miller A as well since the pacific wave will be closer to the coast as well Hopefully the euro gets rid of all that sleet it was showing for the first 12 hours of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Surface temps close to -10 Saturday morning wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Light snow moves in at hour 62 on the 12z GGEM. Here is hour 77 Hour 81 84 Hour 88 starting to pull away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The UKIE and GGEM are 3-6" areawide. Both with MAJOR nod toward the Euro at H5. The Navgem is so absurdly amped, I'm afraid to post it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The Navgem is a straight out MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Again, I think it's legal to post these. The Navgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Surface temps close to -10 Saturday morning wow All time low in NYC is - 17 , mid week next week mayb colder than Sat AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The Navgem is a straight out MECS. Do we use that now? What about the JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Do we use that now? What about the JMA? Navgem was the first model to latch onto the amplified idea and stay with it. Even a broken clock.... Last JMA was 1-1.5" qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Verbatim the 12z GGEM is about 36 straight hours of light to moderate snow in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Again, I think it's legal to post these. The Navgem. That is straight porn. After seeing the GFS that navgem wouldnt be a shocker if it verified especially if this really is a negatively tilted purebreed Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Verbatim the 12z GGEM is about 36 straight hours of light to moderate snow in NYC. I think the last time it snowed that long was the 96 blizzard ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This is reminding me of the BDB in terms of the Miller B switching to Miller A idea within 72 hours of the event. More hints that the GFS is giving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Should wait on what the GFS ensemble members show before we get too carried away with the OP GFS. I believe they should come out any minute now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I think the last time it snowed that long was the 96 blizzard ? Yeah but this is an inch every 6 hours, not an inch every hour to half hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I think the last time it snowed that long was the 96 blizzard ?96' and 03' were both long duration events that dumped lots of snow over a very wide area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 That is straight porn. After seeing the GFS that navgem wouldnt be a shocker if it verified especially if this really is a negatively tilted purebreed Miller A NAVGEM doesn't go neg tilted though, or maybe i'm looking at it wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 NAVGEM doesn't go neg tilted though, or maybe i'm looking at it wrong Look at above posts from wolfsheepsheadbay it shows a glorified blizzard pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If this thing really manages to wrap up and take a full on negative tilt, not to mention dig enough to tap the most gulf moisture possible, then we're probably talking widespread MECS with a HECS signal. This is a huge IF and everything would have to come together perfectly for that to happen, but it's not impossible. I honestly thought the Euro had a fluke run but since the other models are heading towards it, then I can't say that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I think the last time it snowed that long was the 96 blizzard ? PDII Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If this thing really manages to wrap up and take a full on negative tilt, not to mention dig enough to tap the most gulf moisture possible, then we're probably talking widespread MECS with a HECS signal. This is a huge IF and everything would have to come together perfectly for that to happen, but it's not impossible. I honestly thought the Euro had a fluke run but since the other models are heading towards it, then I can't say that right now. The prob is they all missed on the northern stream energy until the Euro last night. Whether is right or wrong is to TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If this thing really manages to wrap up and take a full on negative tilt, not to mention dig enough to tap the most gulf moisture possible, then we're probably talking widespread MECS with a HECS signal. This is a huge IF and everything would have to come together perfectly for that to happen, but it's not impossible. I honestly thought the Euro had a fluke run but since the other models are heading towards it, then I can't say that right now. The Euro wasn't there yet. Those snow maps were way over done since the 850s were above freezing for much of the first part of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The 12z GEFS ensemble mean is wetter for sure, looks like a dumbed down version of the op which is about where you would hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The 12z GEFS ensemble mean is wetter for sure, looks like a dumbed down version of the op which is about where you would hope. Great news and great pbp today yank! Your alright man EURO run is going to be a nuthouse in here. If it shows a miller A bomb weenie's will be beside themselves. By far worst part of a big possible snowstorm is what if it goes away lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 All the snow from the GGEM is from an inverted trough feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's probably a good thing not to be in the bullseye right now since we're still a good 3.5-4 days away from this. There's a lot of room for adjustments and I think the energy comes ashore tonight so we'll get better sampling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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