NEG NAO Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 Anything else snow wise showing up on 12z GFS? Rossi look through this Rossi and let us know http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013122812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Anything else snow wise showing up on 12z GFS? Rossi Nope, bitterly cold followed by moderating temps, still quite warm by the 8th or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 12z GGEM http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Anything else snow wise showing up on 12z GFS? Rossi I'd watch the event at 84 hours but most likley thats a miss, you probably want that to be a miss anyway because if that were to blowup more and become a minor hit or near miss it may screw with this event on the 3rd and 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 12z GGEM http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg Anthony - what are the snow totals on the Canadian ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Anthony - what are the snow totals on the Canadian ? Looks like 15-20mm for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Looks like 15-20mm for the area.That's about 6-8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Canadian looks like about 4-7" for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The 12z GGEM looks sloppy between 120-132hr. I'd wait for maps before posting snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Canadian looks like about 4-7" for the area It's either more than that or close to it... H5 setup looks extremely volatile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 The 12z GGEM looks sloppy between 120-132hr. I'd wait for maps before concluding. well with that in mind we can discount a suppressed solution at this time most of the guidance is signaling a storm close enough to give us a SECS - Next up the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 With a solid snowpack, temperatures after this storm could drop to around or under 10 degrees most everywhere, well below 0 for the suburbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I'm not sure there is enough blocking for the northern stream to truly phase, but the general synoptics have greatly improved. The PNA ridge is improved, but still "running" a bit too much -- would like to see the flow a bit more north-to-south in the Plains. That would allow the vorticity to better consolidate in the base of the trough, allowing more deepening and further amplification, and perhaps not even need any northern stream phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 With a solid snowpack, temperatures after this storm could drop to around or under 10 degrees most everywhere, well below 0 for the suburbs Well the GFS has lows next Saturday around 5 above in the cities so certainly 0 or below is a possibility in the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 well with that in mind we can discount a suppressed solution at this time most of the guidance is signaling a storm close enough to give us a SECS - Next up the EURO It is way too early to discount any solution. Because as quickly as the models lost the suppressed idea they could flip back. How quick we forget that this is a fast and generally progressive pattern. Id wait it out a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 It is way too early to discount any solution. Because as quickly as the models lost the suppressed idea they could flip back. How quick we forget that this is a fast and generally progressive pattern. Id wait it out a bit. At this point if they flip to anything it will be the suppressed idea, the only way we really could see an inland move is if the southern steream becomes much more involved and hence the northern wave digs more, the entire setup takes 24-36 hours more and it allowd the very brief strongly -NAO to flip neutral or positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I'd watch the event at 84 hours but most likley thats a miss, you probably want that to be a miss anyway because if that were to blowup more and become a minor hit or near miss it may screw with this event on the 3rd and 4th. doesn't this have to do with setting up a pseudo 50/50 block if that were to miss and help us with east coast amplification with the next storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 At this point if they flip to anything it will be the suppressed idea, the only way we really could see an inland move is if the southern steream becomes much more involved and hence the northern wave digs more, the entire setup takes 24-36 hours more and it allowd the very brief strongly -NAO to flip neutral or positive. Interesting scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 It is way too early to discount any solution. Because as quickly as the models lost the suppressed idea they could flip back. How quick we forget that this is a fast and generally progressive pattern. Id wait it out a bit. think the term on this board that we've all become accustomed to hearing pertains to this scenario " threading the needle". we need a perfectly timed dig from the northern vort to phase with the southern stream to get the big miller A. if anything in flow so much as farts "joking for not timed correctly" we get OTS solution or a far east solution. you nailed it earthlight this is a VERY fragile setup indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 the canadian is a worthless model. i can't believe people look at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 think the term on this board that we've all become accustomed to hearing pertains to this scenario " threading the needle". we need a perfectly timed dig from the northern vort to phase with the southern stream to get the big miller A. if anything in flow so much as farts "joking for not timed correctly" we get OTS solution or a far east solution. you nailed it earthlight this is a VERY fragile setup indeed With the PNA rising, the flow is going to slow down. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 the canadian is a worthless model. i can't believe people look at it In this situation I'm actually surprised its not driving the system well inland, it tends to love going too far west when there is a -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The 12z GGEM is above 0C at 850mb, near the coast, until 150hrs, when the CCB is leaving the area: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html I don't value the GGEM either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 In this situation I'm actually surprised its not driving the system well inland, it tends to love going too far west when there is a -NAOit shows rain pretty far inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 the canadian is a worthless model. i can't believe people look at it damn French! trends are pretty good today forky, but we must be careful in a progressive, volatile pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 If the January 2nd event does materialize, what is the earliest snow would stick, that date is first day back for the NYC public school system and a lot of people would love to extend their vacation LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 If the January 2nd event does materialize, what is the earliest snow would stick, that date is first day back for the NYC public school system and a lot of people would love to extend their vacation LOL. Would need at least a foot+ for NYC to even think about canceling school, even with bloomberg leaving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Would need at least a foot+ for NYC to even think about canceling school, even with bloomberg leaving I think DeBlasio can produce some snow of his own if you know what I'm sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I think DeBlasio can produce some snow of his own if you know what I'm sayin' I wanted to see one more Spanish translation from the outgoing mayor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.