IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Solid warning criteria snowfall for all. 6"+ from KTTN north and east. 8"+ from KHPN northeastward. 10"+ for northern and central CT. It literally snows for us from hour 72 through 105. The CCB just scrapes us. About 75 miles further NW and this would have been "Mother of God" worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Solid warning criteria snowfall for all. 6"+ from KTTN north and east. 8"+ from KHPN northeastward. 10"+ for northern and central CT. It literally snows for us from hour 72 through 105. The CCB just scrapes us. About 75 miles further NW and this would have been "Mother of God" worthy. As was just stated SE bias from gfs and it is a mother of god storm. Im swinging for the fences on a big miller A on the euro at 1 pm today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS is 8-12" area wide based on clown maps. Could get more if ratios are higher, 12:1. GFS is very cold throughout the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 6-12" from DC-NYC via clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nice to have GFS on board..hopefully EURO keeps showing something good. I do expect these models to keep showing different scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 That trough never really goes negative tilt like you would like to see. The flow is actually pretty fast but the timing this run was great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Miller A storms know how to provide tons of moisture and when the cold is involved big positive results typically follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Clown maps gona be 10 to 1 - this is 12 to 1 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 John nailed it earlier in saying the euro, nam to a degree and ill throw in the navgem as well that started the amped up trend that something must've been picked up. Looks like that southern stream delivers an awesome storm if you factor in the GFS southeast bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Site traffic should increase exponentially for the 12z Euro run. All weenies on board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The way I understand is it's based on the initialized time, which for 12z is 7am EST. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Just took a glance back at the 00z ECMWF for reference. The 12z GFS and the 00z ECMWF are worlds apart. The first showing a miller A and the ladder showing a miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 That GFS run is suffering from convective feedback, we've seen this before from it off the Carolinas, I would maybe trust the ensembles but do not get too excited about that solution, the 2 low idea is bogus, not to mention how the precip from the 2nd low is way too far west given low position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 And the gulf is open for business ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Now it's really getting interesting, as this was a definite major step toward the Euro, making last night's Euro run likely to be repeated in some similar form today at 12z. It's clear the northern stream energy will be stronger / dig further south than progged earlier. The PNA spike out west is a nice one and argues for this amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nice to have GFS on board..hopefully EURO keeps showing something good. I do expect these models to keep showing different scenarios. the different scenarios should become less since we are approaching the event - if the 12Z EURO shows basically what it showed last night the chances have increased significantly for a SECS or MECS event - 12Z GFS is taking a move towards the EURO solution for sure - if the EURO backs off significantly we are back in Limbo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Well I didn't expect that, wow. The double low looks suspect and we've seen the gfs do this time and time again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Now it's really getting interesting, as this was a definite major step toward the Euro, making last night's Euro run likely to be repeated in some similar form today at 12z. It's clear the northern stream energy will be stronger / dig further south than progged earlier. The PNA spike out west is a nice one and argues for this amplification.So you think this may actually end up being a purebreed Miller A like the gfs just advertised? Also the SE bias it has lends me to believe it will be closer to the coast more negatively tilted. Regardlesss what a massive storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS has an ACTUAL surface temp of -2.2 F for NYC on Saturday morning: SAT 06Z 04-JAN -19.0 -13.0 1029 91 5 0.00 547 525 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Does it seem a little odd that the gfs is mostly a long duration light to moderate snow? Meaning it never snow greater than 1/2"/hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I know this is for the Jan 2-3 storm..but the GFS is also showing another solution for the 7th storm.. a good one indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Does it seem a little odd that the gfs is mostly a long duration light to moderate snow? Meaning it never snow greater than 1/2"/hr. Temps are in the teens and low 20's, ratios could be considerably higher than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 That GFS run is suffering from convective feedback, we've seen this before from it off the Carolinas, I would maybe trust the ensembles but do not get too excited about that solution, the 2 low idea is bogus, not to mention how the precip from the 2nd low is way too far west given low position. surface aside, you can't deny the positive, and dramatic change from the 0z run @ H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 surface aside, you can't deny the positive, and dramatic change from the 0z run @ H5 Lol, if anything the convective feedback is lowering the totals. Based on the H5 depiction, the GFS was a 12-18" MECS. The convective feedback pulled a bunch of QPF off shore. The ens are going to be huge. Positive of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Lol, if anything the convective feedback is lowering the totals. Based on the H5 depiction, the GFS was a 12-18" MECS. The convective feedback pulled a bunch of QPF off shore. The ens are going to be huge. Positive of that. Yeah. It did the same thing for the BDB Event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Does it seem a little odd that the gfs is mostly a long duration light to moderate snow? Meaning it never snow greater than 1/2"/hr. Probably just because we haven't had one of those events in 10 years or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Lol, if anything the convective feedback is lowering the totals. Based on the H5 depiction, the GFS was a 12-18" MECS. The convective feedback pulled a bunch of QPF off shore. The ens are going to be huge. Positive of that.Think its going to be a pure miller A for sure. When do the ensembles come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Probably just because we haven't had one of those events in 10 years or more. cough cough 03' 96' What a turn of events though john right?! She was a beauty indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Jan 2005 ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Probably just because we haven't had one of those events in 10 years or more. true during most six inch plus events we get at least a period where it thumps for a bit. Am wondering if the gfs goes in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.