wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 For SWFE, go with the GFS For cyclogenesis bombs, go with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Agree. Until we have a full cycle of similar runs, there really haven't been any "trends" yet. If the Euro is similar to last night's run, then we've definitely developed a more amplified trend. I think the models are really struggling with the amount of blocking since we are going from a strong +AO pattern to more blocking near the Davis Strait and Baffin Island. An extreme example was the crazy 1-25-00 forecasts. 2000 1 8 3.154 2000 1 9 2.831 2000 1 10 2.378 2000 1 11 1.427 2000 1 12 0.709 2000 1 13 0.573 2000 1 14 1.028 2000 1 15 2.114 2000 1 16 1.608 2000 1 17 -0.037 2000 1 18 -1.091 2000 1 19 -1.008 2000 1 20 -0.817 2000 1 21 -0.949 2000 1 22 -0.698 2000 1 23 -0.148 2000 1 24 0.400 2000 1 25 0.382 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 You may really have to wait until inside 48 hours before pulling any fire alarms . Its not an easy set up , and i said yesterday its normal that you get variance in complex set ups like this . But the spread will narrow , just think seeing some consensus of the weakening the northern feature is a good start . On a mid latitude coastal plain , we have to deal with climo , confluence , hand offs , speed , seperate streams , postion , wind direction etc . its a lot for high res models to see outside 48 hours , they tend to lose resolution . The Euro is good , but not perfect . So take a blend and watch the trends , i dont think 1 model is gona go wire to wire here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Aren't we inside of the EURO's deadly accurate range? The NAM has been horrendous this Winter. Wouldn't trust the NAM if it said rain was wet. I would like to see the 12z EURO give us the same solution as 0z and then I'll start barking like a dog! The problem is the NAM tends to be very far NW with these storms and it went pretty far SE at 12Z compared to where it usually is at this timeframe on most storms, its hard to say if it means anything because it was still somewhat amplified at 500 but just didn't phase things well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The users filing in to watch the start of the 12z gfs run. Allsnow holds weenies dreams in his hands ( i know this is banter just having fun ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The problem is the NAM tends to be very far NW with these storms and it went pretty far SE at 12Z compared to where it usually is at this timeframe on most storms, its hard to say if it means anything because it was still somewhat amplified at 500 but just didn't phase things well. Yes, but it wildly swung NW between 0z and 6z. It's completely lost and it's obvious by looking at it's last 3 runs. The ONLY thing I am taking away from the NAM runs right now is that the primary is weaker every run, and the s/w is now digging down to the Gulf for two consecutive runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 You may really have to wait until inside 48 hours before pulling any fire alarms . Its not an easy set up , and i said yesterday its normal that you get variance in complex set ups like this . But the spread will narrow , just think seeing some consensus of the weakening the northern feature is a good start . On a mid latitude coastal plain , we have to deal with climo , confluence , hand offs , speed , seperate streams , postion , wind direction etc . its a lot for high res models to see outside 48 hours , they tend to lose resolution . The Euro is good , but not perfect . So take a blend and watch the trends , i dont think 1 model is gona go wire to wire here . I have to wonder how many potential large storms were easy set ups. Isn't every large storm complex and difficult to determine by models initially. I can't think of one large east coast storm that was cut and dry where all the factors were easy to determine and models quickly handled it out. The only storm that may have been on point was the Superstorm of 1993, models knew it was going to be a massive event several days in advance and they all already knew what factors would be in play. Ok I don't know for sure, can any met back this up or dispute it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 You may really have to wait until inside 48 hours before pulling any fire alarms . Its not an easy set up , and i said yesterday its normal that you get variance in complex set ups like this . But the spread will narrow , just think seeing some consensus of the weakening the northern feature is a good start . On a mid latitude coastal plain , we have to deal with climo , confluence , hand offs , speed , seperate streams , postion , wind direction etc . its a lot for high res models to see outside 48 hours , they tend to lose resolution . The Euro is good , but not perfect . So take a blend and watch the trends , i dont think 1 model is gona go wire to wire here . Exactly why this is the time to be sitting here reading, processing and digesting all the info that is coming out. Hold onto the good and throw the garbage where it belongs. You have better odds of winning the lottery right now than at picking a solution/model to go with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I have to wonder how many potential large storms were easy set ups. Isn't every large storm complex and difficult to determine by models initially. I can't think of one large east coast storm that was cut and dry where all the factors were easy to determine and models quickly handled it out. The only storm that may have been on point was the Superstorm of 1993, models knew it was going to be a massive event several days in advance and they all already knew what factors would be in play. Ok I don't know for sure, can any met back this up or dispute it. Although a different animal altogether most models had Sandy nailed a few days out. One of the reasons it was so concerning to those who knew what the models were spitting out. Was incredible to see how they all came together as closely as they did and as quickly as they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I think the models are really struggling with the amount of blocking since we are going from a strong +AO pattern to more blocking near the Davis Strait and Baffin Island. An extreme example was the crazy 1-25-00 forecasts. ao.sprd2.gif 2000 1 8 3.154 2000 1 9 2.831 2000 1 10 2.378 2000 1 11 1.427 2000 1 12 0.709 2000 1 13 0.573 2000 1 14 1.028 2000 1 15 2.114 2000 1 16 1.608 2000 1 17 -0.037 2000 1 18 -1.091 2000 1 19 -1.008 2000 1 20 -0.817 2000 1 21 -0.949 2000 1 22 -0.698 2000 1 23 -0.148 2000 1 24 0.400 2000 1 25 0.382 I think it comes down to the shortwave driving into the base of the trough as well. That energy is in a data sparse region but will be approaching the coasts later tonight and tomorrow. The Euro suddenly had this piece of energy which was stronger and more consolidated last night. This energy surged southeastward into the trough and amplified as far south as MS/AL and the Southeast States. The amount of models showing this yesterday was zero, and that includes ensembles. So now that we see the Euro Ens, NAM to an extent, and some SREF data backing this idea -- I think we need to watch the evolution of that energy very carefully. All of this said, I think the Euro is definitely prone to a burp/over-amplified run and I would not be shocked to see it back down at 12z today. But in the end, we won't know the details of how that energy will behave for another several cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I have to wonder how many potential large storms were easy set ups. Isn't every large storm complex and difficult to determine by models initially. I can't think of one large east coast storm that was cut and dry where all the factors were easy to determine and models quickly handled it out. The only storm that may have been on point was the Superstorm of 1993, models knew it was going to be a massive event several days in advance and they all already knew what factors would be in play. Ok I don't know for sure, can any met back this up or dispute it. That was the best models had performed on any major event up until that time, remember back then the furthest any model went out was 5 days and they only had 12 or sometimes 24 increments, not 3 or 6 like they do now, virtually every model saw the storm the same way from 3-5 days out, the UKMET actually showed a 964mb low over Virginia at Day 5...the track was even dead on from 24 hours out which in 1993 was remarkable, there was still a distinct possibility NYC would stay all snow as of 12-24 hours out given general track error back then....the track was slightly east of the models but not enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The users filing in to watch the start of the 12z gfs run. Allsnow holds weenies dreams in his hands The GFS likely won't show anything of significance for a few more runs anyway, I would be fairly shocked if it showed a big amped up solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I don't think anyone should be discounting the GFS in this situation. It has been much more consistent than the Euro which has been all over the place with this storm, from showing a dud, to a monster, dud and back to a monster. The GFS has had some variations run to run, but if the GFS doesn't budge towards a 0z Euro solution over the next 24 hours, then I would begin to worry a bit, especially if today's 12z Euro isn't as good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Just to show you how overdone these snow maps can be http://ow.ly/i/49Q9J/original Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The GFS already has a few changes regarding the southern stream energy at hour 24. It's further southeast and flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 That was the best models had performed on any major event up until that time, remember back then the furthest any model went out was 5 days and they only had 12 or sometimes 24 increments, not 3 or 6 like they do now, virtually every model saw the storm the same way from 3-5 days out, the UKMET actually showed a 964mb low over Virginia at Day 5...the track was even dead on from 24 hours out which in 1993 was remarkable, there was still a distinct possibility NYC would stay all snow as of 12-24 hours out given general track error back then....the track was slightly east of the models but not enough. That is amazing how well they performed of an event over 20 years ago. You'd think the models would have advance rapidly since then, but we still get Boxing Day busts and March 2001 busts (both nearly 10 years apart but still). I think the January 2000 or 2001 storm was also a model bust. The models generally have more consensus with massive storms than more moderate or minor events it seems, but that's not always the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hour 36 our northern stream vort is diving in through Idaho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Just to show you how overdone these snow maps can be http://ow.ly/i/49Q9J/original Based on that map you're thinking 9-10" of snow for the North Shore of LI is likely out of the realm of possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Based on that map you're thinking 9-10" of snow for the North Shore of LI is likwly out of the realm of possibility? I was talking more in terms of the 24"+ that it shows for parts of NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This looks a lot better than the NAM. None of that initial crap out ahead of the main trough developing. At hour 45 the energy is diving down through the Rockies. Meanwhile the southern stream is waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The initial piece of vorticy stays weak and heads east which is a great sign. Meanwhile the southern stream is already starting to amplify at hour 51 as the northern stream continues to dive in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This GFS run is way more amplified already through 60 hours and keying in on a similar piece of energy as the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hour 63 phase beginning to take shape, sub 1016mb low over the LA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Huge change with the southern stream on this 12z GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Major changes on the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Comparing this run to the 00z GFS last night through 60 hours is almost a joke. Something was completely missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This GFS run is way more amplified already through 60 hours and keying in on a similar piece of energy as the Euro. EURO/NAVGEM ftw john! Looks like shes going to make the turn in time from a current stand point. Lets see how she plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hour 66, phase ongoing, heights starting to rise over the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hour 66, phase ongoing, heights starting to rise over the southeast. Miller A type storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Here comes the northern stream at 72 hours, trough base is all the way into AR and moving towards MS/AL. Tremendous lean towards the Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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