Isotherm Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Seeing the NAM this de-amplified at days 3 and 4 tell me that the well offshore tracks are still very much in play. Seeing the pattern tells me that, but I don't intend on viewing the NAM for another day. Too early for it to be useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Total QPF on the NAM, < 0.10" and that was from getting scraped by the initial over running. Coastal passes over 350 miles offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 At 75 hours the main shortwave is aligned in the base of the trough and swinging through Mississippi and Alabama. sounds like it recovered nicely so far john Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The NAM nearly pulls it off at the last second but remains generally unorganized. I will say this -- I remain skeptical of the Euro solutions, but seeing the NCEP models suddenly picking up on this more organized piece of energy driving into MS/AL certainly raises an eyebrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Total QPF on the NAM, < 0.10" and that was from getting scraped by the initial over running. Coastal passes over 350 miles offshore. You should look at H5 between 72-78 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 NAM was close and like john said looks like that energy in the south now shows its going to make a bigger impact up the coast. Perhaps maybe the euro and amped up models may be onto something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Whatever the outcome, is it a given that all liquid with above 32 degrees has been ruled out for NYC and Long Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 A number of points: 1. The 0z ECMWF, 0z and 6z GFS all continue to point to a higher probability for a light to moderate accumulation of snow than little or no snow in the NYC area. 2. The 0z ECMWF forecast 1.16" qpf for NYC, but 0.41" when the 850 mb temperature was < 0°C (a little more than 0.41" might be snow, but probably not significantly more). 3. The 12z NAM is perhaps a step back from the 6z NAM (still pending the completion of the run). 4. The most consistent signal continues to be the potential for severe cold Friday and Saturday with perhaps the City's first low temperature in single digits since 1/24/11 and first high temperature in the teens since 1/16/2009. Much uncertainty still remains with regard to the potential storm's impact. Less uncertainty exists with regard to the upcoming cold shot. Is the storm out west even in accurate sampling territory yet ? And when is that supposed to happen with what model run ? Then we will have a much better read on what is going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 You should look at H5 between 72-78 hours. I see that, but we're going to need the energy to consolidate faster in the base of that trough. That initial southern stream energy jumps out ahead and flattens the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Whatever the outcome, is it a given that all liquid with above 32 degrees has been ruled out for NYC and Long Island? No, nothing has been ruled out yet, except 60 degree highs late this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Not one deterministic model was showing this shortwave energy digging this far south yesterday. Euro looks to be leading the trend here although its solution may ultimately be way over-amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Not one deterministic model was showing this shortwave energy digging this far south yesterday. Euro looks to be leading the trend here although its solution may ultimately be way over-amplified. A la boxing day 2010 where the northern branch wasnt picked up on until late in the game. Dont lie john your hoping the euro and especially navgem are onto the more amped solutions and leading the charge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Seeing the pattern tells me that, but I don't intend on viewing the NAM for another day. Too early for it to be useful. Considering how many times the NAM can wiff even within 24 hrs of an event. The 12z Euro may be a good first guess what is going to happen since the energy is approaching the West Coast right now and will be ashore tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 As I stated last night, I think folks fail to realize how important it has been for most of the NWP to weaken the primary in the OV. 850 mb low even opens up. Latest SREF plumes have been gradually showing a more south trend as well. 12z NAM is quite disjointed as well. There are hints of an inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Not one deterministic model was showing this shortwave energy digging this far south yesterday. Euro looks to be leading the trend here although its solution may ultimately be way over-amplified. A la boxing day 2010 where the northern branch wasnt picked up on until late in the game. Dont lie john your hoping the euro and especially navgem are onto the more amped solutions and leading the charge Of course I am, and so is everyone else here. But smart forecasting is different from what I am hoping for -- and right now I'm not sold on any one solution including the 39 thousand different solutions offered by the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Considering how many times the NAM can wiff even within 24 hrs of an event. The 12z Euro may be a good first guess what is going to happen since the energy is approaching the West Coast right now and will be ashore tonight. I share your sentiments but the nams drastic flip flopping from strong digging vort max to flat garbage is concerning. We both need strong digging vort max from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 In synoptic situations similar to what is unfold, which model generally has the best track record for verification this far out from an event? I understand we have high variance due to lack of robust sampling. I think tonight's model suites will be most telling as dynamics are better sampled. However, I am liking the slight trend of a weaker, more suppressed primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I share your sentiments but the nams drastic flip flopping from strong digging vort max to flat garbage is concerning. We both need strong digging vort max from this. I would like to see the Euro settle into a single solution and hold it for a few runs before making a first guess here. But today and tonight may be the first time we see it since the energy is coming ashore out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Considering how many times the NAM can wiff even within 24 hrs of an event. The 12z Euro may be a good first guess what is going to happen since the energy is approaching the West Coast right now and will be ashore tonight. Agree. Until we have a full cycle of similar runs, there really haven't been any "trends" yet. If the Euro is similar to last night's run, then we've definitely developed a more amplified trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 after the snow its gets solidly frozen. Cant ask for more my friend Upton Using the "Likely" word in their forecasts this far in advance is very encouraging http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm going with a light snow event around here with a moderate to significant event for New England. I still think last night's Euro was more of a fluke than anything else and we'll all be disappointed this afternoon. The Euro has done this before and it's been far from perfect. There's just not enough consensus from the other models for me to support the Euro. Usually this is the range where we start to see more of a consensus, especially if it's a huge storm. I'll hang on until the afternoon model runs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Agree. Until we have a full cycle of similar runs, there really haven't been any "trends" yet. If the Euro is similar to last night's run, then we've definitely developed a more amplified trend. Right I havent seen 1 models with the same end game solution yet , lota pieces to b sought , The Northern stream dies faster and the trend is for a deeper surface further south . See if you can extrapolate a favorable solution off that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The fact that the Euro is flip flopping in a storm like this is unusual. It usually hold on to a solution for days while the other models are confused and it nails the amplification of the 500mb pattern of large scale storms (Sandy, Feb 2013, Dec 2010) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 In synoptic situations similar to what is unfold, which model generally has the best track record for verification this far out from an event? I understand we have high variance due to lack of robust sampling. I think tonight's model suites will be most telling as dynamics are better sampled. However, I am liking the slight trend of a weaker, more suppressed primary. Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Did you follow the Euro last year at all? It has not been consistent whatsoever. The fact that the Euro is flip flopping in a storm like this is unusual. It usually hold on to a solution for days while the other models are confused and it nails the sypnotics (Sandy, Feb 2013, Dec 2010) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The only model not flip flopping is the navgem, and the euro is moving toward that solution. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Don't trust the Euro. It can go both ways.. it has not been consistent .. it does help to have it on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Aren't we inside of the EURO's deadly accurate range? The NAM has been horrendous this Winter. Wouldn't trust the NAM if it said rain was wet. I would like to see the 12z EURO give us the same solution as 0z and then I'll start barking like a dog! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Did you follow the Euro last year at all? It has not been consistent whatsoever. The Euro is good at handling large scale storms, thats all Im saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The only model not flip flopping is the navgem, and the euro is moving toward that solution. Just saying. NAVGEM is the new JMA apparently.. Also the EURO is definitely the best model at this time range, but as it's been stated, it has it's fair share of flaws. Two days ago it showed a monster storm, then yesterday it showed nothing, and now it shows a strong storm again. Even the best model is going to be wildly inconsistent at this time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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