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January 2 - 3 Winter Storm Potential

NEG NAO

By NEG NAO,
in New York City Metro

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REDMK6GLI

REDMK6GLI

Posted
Posted

I think it's the navgem's consistency here that is giving it some more credibility. It has shown more amplified and earlier phased solutions for many consecutive runs now, while the Euro and GFS have been flip flopping all over the place.

If anything the EURO took a step towards navgem at 00z this morning. Great pick up on that models consistency buddy

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

1/7/94 remains the top analog over the east at 72 hours.

 

Taking a look at the 06z GFS in depth, it was pretty terrible for everyone is this area. Where it is cold enough to snow, it's very light except for a few hours at the end as the storm is pulling out. The initial over running heads into the BGM corridor.

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

1/7/94 remains the top analog over the east at 72 hours.

Taking a look at the 06z GFS in depth, it was pretty terrible for everyone is this area. Where it is cold enough to snow, it's very light except for a few hours at the end as the storm is pulling out. The initial over running heads into the BGM corridor.

Obv the 06z gfs results on the surface where meh, the trend was better from 00z. I will take my chances with the primary going south of Pitt.

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wolfsheepsheadbay

wolfsheepsheadbay

Posted
Posted

The problem with using the NAVGEM is you need it to suddenly stop having the lowest skill score because it is showing

a solution that people like. If the OP Euro is too amped up, the ensembles will end up being the correct solution. But

we'll have to see if the Euro stays as strong the next few runs. The ensemble mean doesn't close off over

the Gulf of Maine like the OP.

 

attachicon.gifGeopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_120.gif

True. Again, though...the Euro is slowly coming around to the navgem's look, and the navgem really hasn't changed much in 2 days. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Remember the one KU storm the JMA sniffed out before any other model?

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

Obv the 06z gfs results on the surface where meh, the trend was better from 00z. I will take my chances with the primary going south of Pitt.

Out of all the 00z guidance, the Euro was really the only model besides the NAVGEM showing a big hit. Most of the consensus at this time is for a track well offshore and only light snow for the area.

 

Then again the 00z ECMWF ensemble mean supports the op well, so that was at least encouraging. Hopefully more of the guidance jumps on board at 12z.

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REDMK6GLI

REDMK6GLI

Posted
Posted

The Euro ens may not be as extreme but still have a powerful low over the benchmark. Big signal.

The NAVGEM i dont think is smoking anything on its run as the EURO showed a similar but less dramatic solution. 12z gfs is going to be cliffhanger in an action movie to a T when allsnow gives pbp john.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

The Euro ens may not be as extreme but still have a powerful low over the benchmark. Big signal.

 

 

I'd be surprised if the ensemble mean would ever be as strong as the operational, as you're averaging some 50 member solutions, many of which are liable to be much weaker than the operational run. The key is getting a stronger northern short wave to slow and amplify the trough, thereby tilting negative upon reaching the east coast. The more we amplify the northern vort early on, the better our chances of closing off in the spot the euro has it.

 

The other wildcard is the STJ involvement in the entire system once to the MS Valley.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

True. Again, though...the Euro is slowly coming around to the navgem's look, and the navgem really hasn't changed much in 2 days. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Remember the one KU storm the JMA sniffed out before any other model?

 

I think that the track will be further NW than the NAVGEM closer to something like a euro ensemble mean or maybe OP. The GFS also looks too far east like it usually is. 

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REDMK6GLI

REDMK6GLI

Posted
Posted

I think that the track will be further NW than the NAVGEM closer to something like a euro ensemble mean or maybe OP.

Then the NAVGEM would have performed pretty well and we'll get a pretty big snowstorm

Also what isotherm brought up if that STJ gets involved it will really fill this storm with moisture and qpf will amp up on model output. That has to occur if that northern stream does dig enough and in time as well as euro/ navgem show

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

The GFS with its disjointed mess seems easy to dismiss. That model has a knack for picking up on storms in the long range only to lose them and bring them back at the last minute. The 06z GEFS ensemble mean still had a track SE of the benchmark but still gave the area 0.50-0.75" QPF, so more individual members were probably closer to the Euro ensemble mean.

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

Just a great point and click forecast from the NWS

 

  • New Year's Day A slight chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. West wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
  • Wednesday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
  • Thursday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 23. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
  • Thursday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
  • Friday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 17. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
  • Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 4.
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REDMK6GLI

REDMK6GLI

Posted
Posted

<p>

Just a great point and click forecast from the NWS

  • New Year's Day A slight chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. West wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
  • Wednesday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
  • Thursday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 23. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
  • Thursday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
  • Friday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 17. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
  • Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 4.
after the snow its gets solidly frozen. Cant ask for more my friend ;)
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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

For Forky , too many Euro maps to cut and paste ,0z Euro off WB site ( I know u dont like them )  

CPK

HR 102 850`S  PLUS 2M  temp  28  .2  ??? Snizzle .

HR 108 850`S  0   2M temp  18       .5  S

HR 114 850`S  MINUS 10  2M temp 15      .03 S

Thats how his map shows 8 to 10 around the area . '

 

If your soundings are differnt , show me , im willing to look .

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

that .5" at hour 108 falls before we change to snow

Fork the surface starts at 28 - its collapsing into the teens , 850`s are crashing  , the storm is deepeing  

and your winds are NE  , Thats not rain   my man ,. Not saying 10 inches , but better than 2 IMO

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REDMK6GLI

REDMK6GLI

Posted
Posted

The NAM looks pretty awful compared to the 06z run. Just goes to show you the variance we are dealing with from run to run here.

It is the NAM after all. If there is a model that can perform worse than the NAVGEM its that clunker lol. Although it would be hugged if it showed something big. You think its a big signal what the navgem/ euro showed this morning john?

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

A number of points:

 

1. The 0z ECMWF, 0z and 6z GFS all continue to point to a higher probability for a light to moderate accumulation of snow than little or no snow in the NYC area.

 

2. The 0z ECMWF forecast 1.16" qpf for NYC, but 0.41" when the 850 mb temperature was < 0°C (a little more than 0.41" might be snow, but probably not significantly more).

 

3. The 12z NAM is perhaps a step back from the 6z NAM (still pending the completion of the run).

 

4. The most consistent signal continues to be the potential for severe cold Friday and Saturday with perhaps the City's first low temperature in single digits since 1/24/11 and first high temperature in the teens since 1/16/2009.

 

Much uncertainty still remains with regard to the potential storm's impact. Less uncertainty exists with regard to the upcoming cold shot.

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