PB GFI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I don't even think 18" is impossible from this but 10 or 12" certainly seems more attainable now. The cold shot in the wake of this is brutal , then u look out to the 6ths storm and it looks like round 2 and the shot at 216 is colder than Sat AM. so if there`s 6 plus , its not going anywhere . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 06z gfs ensembles have the primary further south…the low is still a little far east…but nice look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 06z gfs have the primary further south…the low is still a little far east…but nice look What has to be a plus here is you may have taken one negative away , you don't run the primary to PITT , but SE thru the lower Ohio Valley . There are other pins to knock down here , but if you can remove 1 or 2 obstacles then the deepening aloft may be the last thing the models see . ************** Don't wana put too many Euro maps up , but at 216 its 10 below in CPK , and if its overdone or not , You don't see that forecasted in many winters here in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 ...tom nizzel(sp.?)..TWC winter weather expert has the freezing line N of NYC during the whole event..according to that its mostly a rain event !? ..for us LI'ers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Potpurri storm wouldn't be that unusual for coastal plain what a migraine for the mets i have the luxury of a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 ...tom nizzel(sp.?)..TWC winter weather expert has the freezing line N of NYC during the whole event..according to that its mostly a rain event !? ..for us LI'ers.. I wouldn't pay attention to the TWC with a storm 4 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I wouldn't pay attention to the TWC with a storm 4 days away.This storm closes off quickly and bombs out whatever taint there is it will quickly go over to heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This whole forecast comes down to the strength of the Baffin Island/Davis Strait block. The Euro was stronger on Saturday and weaker at night. Now the Euro is back to a stronger block with a the colder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 slamdunk forecast smallcraft advisory in effect early thursday morning thru saturday with freezing spray wave height 6- 10 ft N.E. thru friday swifting to the west. I would love to say freezing fog but that hasn't happened since jan.7 1996 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The navgem has a ridiculous CCB and would crush us all. The GFS ens are still .5. Euro ens .8. I'd say we're in good shape right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 What has to be a plus here is you may have taken one negative away , you don't run the primary to PITT , but SE thru the lower Ohio Valley . There are other pins to knock down here , but if you can remove 1 or 2 obstacles then the deepening aloft may be the last thing the models see . ************** Don't wana put too many Euro maps up , but at 216 its 10 below in CPK , and if its overdone or not , You don't see that forecasted in many winters here in NYC ..JB mentioned the same thing regarding the EURO..he says 15 below..verbatim or not..you don't see that forecasted...wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The navgem has a ridiculous CCB and would crush us all. The GFS ens are still .5. Euro ens .8. I'd say we're in good shape right now. Where can i sign for the NAVGEM? Lol but seriously thought the models trended stronger with the block tonight so i feel that it should be better forecasted throughout todays forecast model runs. Still going to biting our nails while we see weenie near the cliffs ready to jump.... Snow88 will be leading that charge haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Where can i sign for the NAVGEM? Lol but seriously thought the models trended stronger with the block tonight so i feel that it should be better forecasted throughout todays forecast model runs. Still going to biting our nails while we see weenie near the cliffs ready to jump.... Snow88 will be leading that charge haha Think it's okay to post this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Think it's okay to post this: That comma head just looks.... Not better way to say this makes all tingly inside who knows with the changes to the models last night we may very well see those solutions today. Great find my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Think it's okay to post this: Talk about extremes , That's prob a Blizzard ..... If the rest in the 12z suites are half that good , I will take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Very disruptive system headed our way aviation and marine interests are particulary sensitive to the the forecast lives depend on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Talk about extremes , That's prob a Blizzard ..... If the rest in the 12z suites are half that good , I will take it If that verifies i will happily ride into the sunset with this winter. GFS i think, well should start coming up with some non-bogus solution soon and i think if it steps towards the 00z euro, dream outcome being the navgem then ill believe the trends from this mornings model digest. Also PG GFI what is your real name? Im ryan btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 With TTN just changing over to snow at 108, that map is way overdone. By 2 to 3 times. Wonder if its seeing it as just about snow at 108 and assuming everything in the prior 6 hours is all snow.these maps are bogus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If that verifies i will happily ride into the sunset with this winter. GFS i think, well should start coming up with some non-bogus solution soon and i think if it steps towards the 00z euro, dream outcome being the navgem then ill believe the trends from this mornings model digest. Also PG GFI what is your real name? Im ryan btw Paul . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 these maps are bogus Dude they are off the soundings at 10 to 1 , if they don't verify its not the algo s fault , means that particular run didn't verify or u didn't get 10 to 1 what do u think happens when those maps r at 10 to 1 in places where 15 to 1 go off at some point this winter , then they will bust low we don't take em literally . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 In my opinion for the NAVGEM to verify it would have to dig even further than the 00z euro. That is possible if that block intensity stays the same as what the euro showed. I wouldnt totally dismiss what it showed which we would all love but its something to use as another scenario of what could happen with what the block is dictating for the final outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Dude they are off the soundings at 10 to 1 , if they don't verify its not the algo s fault , means that particular run didn't verify or u didn't get 10 to 1 what do u think happens when those maps r at 10 to 1 in places where 15 to 1 go off at some point this winter , then they will bust low we don't take em literally . i see ~.25" L.E. after we change over at 108 hours. 10" amounts are impossible on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 i see ~.25" L.E. after we change over at 108 hours. 10" amounts are impossible on this run Euro is .8 in nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro is .8 in nyc Well, yes. But the warminista is try to argue that the WWA ahead of the coastal development will ensure lots of wasted precip. It's possible, but even he knows the Euro run last night was at least a high end SECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Well, yes. But the warminista is try to argue that the WWA ahead of the coastal development will ensure lots of wasted precip. It's possible, but even he knows the Euro run last night was at least a high end SECS.Im praying for that NAVGEM even though it may be just a dream. The euro though was a high end SECS to a MECS and the NAVGEM was a HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro is .8 in nycaccording to what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 according to what? Will paste it when at office. Driving u p in the a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 One guarantee i can give is by 10:30 this theead will be booming with weenies waiting with baited breath for allsnow to give the 12z gfs pbp. If that delivers this place will be a loonie bin and KU books you'll be able to hear crack open with phrase like "another boxing day" or "this has 96' written all over it" lol. If it doesnt you'll hear a pin drop. EVERYONE use caution still as trends are more important than individual model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The NAVGEM isn't ready for prime time compared to the other models and especially the Euro. cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png I think it's the navgem's consistency here that is giving it some more credibility. It has shown more amplified and earlier phased solutions for many consecutive runs now, while the Euro and GFS have been flip flopping all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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