snowwors2 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Looking at the map posted above it looks like you do well, but the Wxbell maps are always overdone.Yes...thanks, missed that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Obviously it could completely back down next run, but I think it could even amplify a bit more as well. Things just got really interesting for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Smells like a good ole' fashion dryslot on the Euro for NYC. 850 low is on top of NYC at hr 108, over southeast Mass at 114. Surface low actually gets down to 968 over Cape Cod by 114, 979 mb south of MTP at 108. Plotted -12 to -18 RH on the Euro, dryslot is over the eastern Jersey shore and very close to northeastern NJ, NYC western LI at hr 108. RH in the 40-50% range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Weatherbell maps show 978mb south of MTP to 967mb over Cape Cod. 962mb in the Gulf of Maine. Not only is trough more digging more. There is more STJ involved here. Who's staying up for the Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Weatherbell maps show 978mb south of MTP to 967mb over Cape Cod. 962mb in the Gulf of Maine. Not only is trough more digging more. There is more STJ involved here. Who's staying up for the Euro ensembles? I am, very interested in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Boston gets a foot+ this run and drops to 5 below behind the storm This seems like a very 2/8 like event where Boston looks like the slam dunk spot and it becomes how far SW of there does it extend. Boston is almost guaranteed a good or great storm from this unless the setup completely falls apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This seems like a very 2/8 like event where Boston looks like the slam dunk spot and it becomes how far SW of there does it extend. Boston is almost guaranteed a good or great storm from this unless the setup completely falls apart. Million dollar question is if a sharp cutoff hits again, at least for us further west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I didnt even need to look at the Euro, when I refreshed this forum and saw 2 pages of posts had occurred in the last 2 hours something crazy happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Far from slam funk for BOS...if SLP tanks that much i could see it head nnw This seems like a very 2/8 like event where Boston looks like the slam dunk spot and it becomes how far SW of there does it extend. Boston is almost guaranteed a good or great storm from this unless the setup completely falls apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Million dollar question is if a sharp cutoff hits again, at least for us further west! The primary should at least help PA out and extend the snow area west, you have to watch for the wicked dryslot though-if the low cuts north of your latitude it's over in an instant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 850 low is on top of NYC at hr 108, over southeast Mass at 114. Surface low actually gets down to 968 over Cape Cod by 114, 979 mb south of MTP at 108. It's going to be a nailbiter for us to the end. I would really want the 850 low to be southeast of me though to rule out mixing, and the 700 low to rule out the dryslot. I do think it'll be a doozy for someone where it all congeals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The primary should at least help PA out and extend the snow area west, you have to watch for the wicked dryslot though-if the low cuts north of your latitude it's over in an instant. Fortunately the 0z ECM trend was our friend. Ah well, we can discuss that more in the C PA thread...back to the NYC-ers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's going to be a nailbiter for us to the end. I would really want the 850 low to be southeast of me though to rule out mixing, and the 700 low to rule out the dryslot. I do think it'll be a doozy for someone where it all congeals. If the system really is as deep as the Euro and the surface low track is offshore there won't be much of anything other than rain quickly to heavy snow...the models may show sleet or iffy surface temps at this range but with that sort of setup you go over to snow very fast most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 the snow maps from SV are sexy from 92-240hours. NIce run of the euro, but wouldnt get your hopes up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro has support from its ens. Very similar evolution to the op albeit not quite as intense a low and slightly S of the op. looks to basically travel over the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro has support from its ens. Very similar evolution to the op albeit not quite as intense a low and slightly S of the op. looks to basically travel over the BM That is the most important BM (40/70) to pass over this week. Hopefully, or the event could turn not so great and go down the toilet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Low resolution SV maps: 10-12" for NYC and NJ north of TTN. 12-15" for North NJ, SE NY CT etc into SNE. Amounts get lower east of NYC on LI and father S in NJ. Seems like a coastal front signal is pretty strong. 25+" amounts in a fairly large band in Central New England. With TTN just changing over to snow at 108, that map is way overdone. By 2 to 3 times. Wonder if its seeing it as just about snow at 108 and assuming everything in the prior 6 hours is all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 So many people gave up or wrote off the 6-12" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 6z NAM looks way better @ H5 compared to 0z. Shortwave is digging all the way to the gulf on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 6z NAM looks way better @ H5 compared to 0z. Shortwave is digging all the way to the gulf on this run.Wow. Huge difference! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 0z NAM 6z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS still has a flatter look than the other models. Would not be surprising to see it lag behind on sniffing out a more amplified solution. Boxing day comes to mind along with other less extreme examples. Edit - Yup, just a tad late on the phase. Definite improvements from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Boxing day Wikipedia "As such, it was only 24 hours prior to the storm's arrival in the Northeastern states when all the European and American models were in agreement that the storm would turn up the entire coastline. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 06z digging the energy similar more.the costal is not as strong and a little to east…but its def a better look then 00z... the primary is further south also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 We are finally seeing a track consensus . The GFS , Euro and the NAM all NO longer take the primary to Pitt , but thru the lower Ohio Valley then off the Delmarva and turn it NE . The differences are now are aloft . It maybe a case where the NAM and GFS need a day to get to the Euro intensity . But they have all bought the southern route overnite . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Do you two regret giving up on the MECS possibility? Told ya it was still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Do you two regret giving up on the MECS possibility? Told ya it was still on the table. Kudos to you for talking me off ledge at 6 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Kudos to you for talking me off ledge at 6 amI don't even think 18" is impossible from this but 10 or 12" certainly seems more attainable now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I don't even think 18" is impossible from this but 10 or 12" certainly seems more attainable now.If this thing digs and bombs out more bringing more moisture with it as well from atlantic and gulf, it will turn into a snow bomb. Too early in the game though but this storm trended the right way overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If this thing digs and bombs out more bringing more moisture with it as well from atlantic and gulf, it will turn into a snow bomb. Too early in the game though but this storm trended the right way overnightYep. Unfortunately could also be over amplifying the trough or phase late and miss us entirely. The nature of the beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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