jm1220 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's 2-4" There were noticeable positive but not major changes at h5. It's really not that far off people. I think we still have time for a better trend. Like you said, I don't think it will take all that much for a better outcome a little further southwest. But Miller B's are always razor-edge type events with clear winners and losers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Tonight's run of the GFS reinforced my thinking that a light to moderate accumulation of snow in the NYC area is more likely than scenarios with little or no snow or a substantial accumulation. Indeed, just outside the City e.g., in White Plains, the model indicated a moderate snowfall. New England remains favored by climatology for largest snowfall and odds continue to increase that some part of New England will see a significant snowfall. At this time, I also continue to like the earlier WPC guidance on qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Most of the NWP show the 850 mb low meandering over upstate NY, never transferring, and essentially becoming the new coastal SLP's 850 mg low. IMO, if we don't get the 850 mb transferring to at least the Delmarva (don't think I've seen one run over the past two days with a transfer) it's over for NYC snow. I think if the 850 low closes off southeast of us we should be okay. If it doesn't it will just be a sheared out, light mess for us anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Tonight's run of the GFS reinforced my thinking that a light to moderate accumulation of snow in the NYC area is more likely than scenarios with little or no snow or a substantial accumulation. Indeed, just outside the City e.g., in White Plains, the model indicated a moderate snowfall. New England remains favored by climatology for largest snowfall and odds continue to increase that some part of New England will see a significant snowfall. At this time, I also continue to like the earlier WPC guidance on qpf. Boston gets a foot+ this run and drops to 5 below behind the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Boston gets a foot+ this run and drops to 5 below behind the storm 1.20" qpf and higher than 10:1 ratios. This run is very good for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 In terms of temperatures, the MEX MOS shows a low temperature of 10° on January 4 and high temperature of 18° on January 3. In short, NYC still has a realistic chance of its first single-digit low temperature since January 24, 2011 when the temperature fell to 6°. It may also have a shot at a daily high temperature below 20° for the first time since January 16, 2009 when the temperature peaked at 16°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 In terms of temperatures, the MEX MOS shows a low temperature of 10° on January 4 and high temperature of 18° on January 3. In short, NYC still has a realistic chance of its first single-digit low temperature since January 24, 2011 when the temperature fell to 6°. It may also have a shot at a daily high temperature below 20° for the first time since January 16, 2009 when the temperature peaked at 16°.We have a chance at below zero out this way, now that's noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 We have a chance at below zero out this way, now that's noteworthy. Some areas outside NYC could certainly go below zero. It will be interesting to see if the guidance maintains what appears to be an impressive Arctic shot as the event grows ever closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The silence on this forum tonight is deafening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GGEM actually looks similar to GFS, it probably has more snow here or at least a longer period, I'm not sure what the deal is with the signal for a really long "CCB" so to speak behind the low that sits over NYC seemingly forever after the low is gone, the GFS has a similar signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If my memory serves me right, as the March 2001 SLP did a loopy-d-loo over the benchmark, a CCB (albeit light in nature), dropped the last 3-4 inches on the city and was quite prolonged in nature. GGEM actually looks similar to GFS, it probably has more snow here or at least a longer period, I'm not sure what the deal is with the signal for a really long "CCB" so to speak behind the low that sits over NYC seemingly forever after the low is gone, the GFS has a similar signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Some areas outside NYC could certainly go below zero. It will be interesting to see if the guidance maintains what appears to be an impressive Arctic shot as the event grows ever closer. Many areas up here have already reached 0-5 for a low this season... Below 0 would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If my memory serves me right, as the March 2001 SLP did a loopy-d-loo over the benchmark, a CCB (albeit light in nature), dropped the last 3-4 inches on the city and was quite prolonged in nature. A few events have done that, 12/26/04, 12/20/95 and 1/28/04 also had a similar thing happen, I think its usually the result of a piece of vorticity at 500mb that gets hung back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 One significant positive that few have pointed out...we have essentially stopped the trend of strengthening the midwest primary. That is a huge step in the right direction. Per H5, GFS is not developing the SLP far enough south. For sure, all of the models are having some difficulty with the energy transfer and the incoming vort. Probably still not worth throwing in the towel for NYC. For the DC-PHL corridor, I think it's time to throw the towel in. This could still be one of these situations where there is a very tight gradient and those furthest east could get hit pretty hard. I like the idea of eastern half of LI getting a good accumulation. Yeah, 3-4 days out. Still some time for things to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GGEM actually looks similar to GFS, it probably has more snow here or at least a longer period, I'm not sure what the deal is with the signal for a really long "CCB" so to speak behind the low that sits over NYC seemingly forever after the low is gone, the GFS has a similar signal GGEM actually hangs back precip all the way down to Ocean City Md. at 108. Kinda reminds me of last March 7th last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yeah, 3-4 days out. Still some time for things to change. I agree that there's still time. One thing that's starting to become more likely is the powerful albeit brief cold snap for Thursday night through Saturday morning. Highs in the mid teens with strong gusty winds could be likely with lows around 4-5F. Wind chills in this setup could be as low as -10 and I could definitely see wind chill advisories to out N&W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GGEM actually hangs back precip all the way down to Ocean City Md. at 108. Kinda reminds me of last March 7th last year. The NOGAPS even shows the same sort of signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Inverted trough like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Look at the whole evolution on ewall the navgem is a big hit. I wouldn't hold my breath though I'd be surprised if its correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 4-6" spread out over 24 hrs for northern sections including the north shore.. 6"+ for all of CT 0z GGEM total snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The Euro is wildly different, tons of amplification. Going to show a much bigger system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Light snow/long duration events almost never work out for the area...especially the city proper. I was just glancing through the GFS ensembles along with SREF plumes for the midwest (ie: 36 hr - 60 hrs). They mostly look terrible for NYC for this event. The 850 mb low gets driven right through PIT to Bradford and east. No 850 mb transfer whatsoever...on any of the members. 4-6" spread out over 24 hrs for northern sections including the north shore.. 6"+ for all of CT 0z GGEM total snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 996mb low over Ocean City MD at 102 hours. And warm so far with 850mb temperatures over 0 c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Holy crap, 982mb surface low south of Long Island at 108 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Holy crap, 982mb surface low south of Long Island at 108 hrs. warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Holy crap, 982mb surface low south of Long Island at 108 hrs. You officially have our attention, lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 warm? 850 0c line bisecting Central LI from SW To NE. But for some perspective the -16c contour isn't far away from NWNJ. This thing is amped up with tons of dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 972mb over Cape Cod at 114 hours. CCB from Trenton northeastward. I officially did not see that coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 850 0c line bisecting Central LI from SW To NE. But for some perspective the -16c contour isn't far away from NWNJ. This thing is amped up with tons of dynamics. actually shocking... what are 2M temps looking like? precip? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 972mb over Cape Cod at 114 hours. CCB from Trenton northeastward. I officially did not see that coming. absolutely shocking (whether it will come to fruition or not...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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