earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 pretty close to a nice solution but still looks like a miss in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 NAM is about where you want it, its undoubtedly going to be way more amped than the GFS/Euro will be at this range so you at least know there will be less of a primary influence or should be on both of those models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 NAM is about where you want it, its undoubtedly going to be way more amped than the GFS/Euro will be at this range so you at least know there will be less of a primary influence or should be on both of those models. the weaker primary is so important and getting that low to develop and bomb out from hatteras would be ideal. I guess 0z I going to be a nail biter tonight. maybe be as exciting as the eagles/cowboys game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This run still looks disjointed and the confluent shortwave on the south side of the PV is still lifting out faster than the prior runs. Nothing arguing, to me, that the primary low won't drive just as far north as the prior NAM run which when extrapolated onto the DGEX scheme was quite warm. That said, the changes in many regards are quite significant on the NAM so far (shocker there, I know). Speaks to the uncertainty of the setup as a whole. each model run has been more unfavorable than the predecessor....models seem to be figuring out what is going on.....is next.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 each model run has been more unfavorable than the predecessor....models seem to be figuring out what is going on.....is next.... This latest NAM run was more favorable. With the important shortwave stuck in a split flow near Yukon and Alaska where there's less data available than can fit on a floppy disk...I'm not grabbing the towel just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 H5 looks much better this nam run. 850 nb low still a major concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I don't think anyone has really thrown in the towel here yet. Let's not lie to ourselves....we will still be checking the model runs and the forum to see if there are any crazy changes to the outcome. Yes, I think our chances for anything over a few inches are about 1 in 10, but it is still possible. Stranger things have happened 4 days out from a storm....we've gone from a projected 0 inches to a foot and we've gone from 25 inches to 2. Let's see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This latest NAM run was more favorable. With the important shortwave stuck in a split flow near Yukon and Alaska where there's less data available than can fit on a floppy disk...I'm not grabbing the towel just yet. We still got two & a half days of model watching before you throw in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This latest NAM run was more favorable. With the important shortwave stuck in a split flow near Yukon and Alaska where there's less data available than can fit on a floppy disk...I'm not grabbing the towel just yet. said this earlier, data in Canada Is pretty damn sparse. we've seen a model snafu due to that before the boxing day blizzard. ( not saying it will be like that just making comparison john ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'd like to see how things change once that Pac energy gets onshore and sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The RGEM (also not good at 48 hours) is actually way out of whack it seems, its about split between the NAM/GFS on the Gulf activity at 48 hours but its wayyyyy fast and progressive with the northern energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 H5 looks much better this nam run. 850 nb low still a major concern it still doesnt seem to be digging enough....even on the real good looking runs the trough slides east instead of ramping/wrapping up north... the confluence doesnt look great. The vortex/quasi 50/50 needs to be further SE Granted this doesnt look horrible - the ridge out west looks to be in a good spot but it needs help Maybe if the vortex had a few more closed contours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 hr 63 the confluence looks pretty strong from the pv…i wonder if this run will come in further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm only out to 48 Hr, but confluence looks the same as 18z hr 63 the confluence looks pretty strong from the pv…i wonder if this run will come in further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 hr 75 low in central Indiana… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 hr 84 light snow….secondary trying to form Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Essentially no change at H5 at 60 hr on 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 No big changes...hopefully tomorrow things start to trend better with this. Goodnight all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Essentially no change at H5 at 60 hr on 0z GFS yep still rather sloppy…looks similar to 18z…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 we get some decent light snow thursday afternoon into thursday night….. snowfall 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 we get some decent light snow thursday afternoon into thursday night…..It's 2-4"There were noticeable positive but not major changes at h5. It's really not that far off people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 single digits to teens friday morning with light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 One significant positive that few have pointed out...we have essentially stopped the trend of strengthening the midwest primary. That is a huge step in the right direction. Per H5, GFS is not developing the SLP far enough south. For sure, all of the models are having some difficulty with the energy transfer and the incoming vort. Probably still not worth throwing in the towel for NYC. For the DC-PHL corridor, I think it's time to throw the towel in. This could still be one of these situations where there is a very tight gradient and those furthest east could get hit pretty hard. I like the idea of eastern half of LI getting a good accumulation. yep still rather sloppy…looks similar to 18z…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 One significant positive that few have pointed out...we have essentially stopped the trend of strengthening the midwest primary. That is a huge step in the right direction. Per H5, GFS is not developing the SLP far enough south. For sure, all of the models are having some difficulty with the energy transfer and the incoming vort. Probably still not worth throwing in the towel for NYC. For the DC-PHL corridor, I think it's time to throw the towel in. This could still be one of these situations where there is a very tight gradient and those furthest east could get hit pretty hard. I like the idea of eastern half of LI getting a good accumulation. A lighter version of Nemo from 2/8/2013 ? Does NYC dust it off with a broom, while Suffolk snowblows and gets snowbanks and mall piles ? While Philly and DC get brown lawns. If it doesn't snow stick season is 4-5 months of ugly hell outside when cloudy. Tolerable looking when full sun w/ blue sky. It is amazing the beauty outside during leaf out in late April early May. Can not come fast enough... Getting the sun above 35 degree elevation at noon is very start of the death of winter in my book. 40 degrees well on the way, and the look and quality of the lighting and shadows is huge from late December. I think the huge telephone pole lost about 3/4 of an inch of shadow since last week. It is starting Real sun angle posts are 8-10 weeks away already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I still see mixed precip issues at times with this run. There is also light snow falling in the wrap around after the coastal Low moves to the northeast of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 A lighter version of Nemo from 2/8/2013 ? Please please stop calling it Nemo. OT sorry but we don't need to use fake marketing terms from a private entity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 One significant positive that few have pointed out...we have essentially stopped the trend of strengthening the midwest primary. That is a huge step in the right direction. Per H5, GFS is not developing the SLP far enough south. For sure, all of the models are having some difficulty with the energy transfer and the incoming vort. Probably still not worth throwing in the towel for NYC. For the DC-PHL corridor, I think it's time to throw the towel in. This could still be one of these situations where there is a very tight gradient and those furthest east could get hit pretty hard. I like the idea of eastern half of LI getting a good accumulation. Could be very much like the 2-8 storm last winter (I refuse to call it Nemo). The storm really started over NYC and got worse east and NE of there. Not to say the accumulations will be the same, but it would be a quick ramp up where the mid level centers on the new coastal storm get organized. Miller B's almost never happen for DC and for Philly are sometimes significantly more rare than for here-2/8 last year gave most of them quite little. Hopefully the models are going to start reversing on the north trend with the H500 energy and will transfer at least soon enough for us to get a good swipe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I still see mixed precip issues at times with this run. There is also light snow falling in the wrap around after the coastal Low moves to the northeast of NYC. I think if the 850 low closes off southeast of us we should be okay. If it doesn't it will just be a sheared out, light mess for us anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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