uncle W Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 wouldn't that mean the track of the storm would be close to the coast for that to happen ? Which model is showing this ? none that I know of...I wouldn't bet money on any model this far out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Hope I'm allowed to post this here but DT says this is only a mid-atlantic storm and won't really affect phl and nyc. Hopefully he's off base but he's had the hot hand lately. He said the GFS ensembles are correct, and to ignore the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Hope I'm allowed to post this here but DT says this is only a mid-atlantic storm and won't really affect phl and nyc. Hopefully he's off base but he's had the hot hand lately. He said the GFS ensembles are correct, and to ignore the OP He's loving the euro op fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 On the GFS so far this looks like a light to moderate snow event for 12 hours....2-5"....with another threat on Sunday? Another 2-5" very nice pattern clearlyJust remember how cold it will be. Ratios should be 15 to 1 and powder will stick immediately.Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Hope I'm allowed to post this here but DT says this is only a mid-atlantic storm and won't really affect phl and nyc. Hopefully he's off base but he's had the hot hand lately. No one has had a hotter hand than JB from the beginning in this pattern and he thinks NYC is prob ground zero Should b in vendor. But just to counter. Would lov to see some contiuity in the models before I can am sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 He said the GFS ensembles are correct, and to ignore the OP He has been saying that for 10 years and it usually comes north Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Hope I'm allowed to post this here but DT says this is only a mid-atlantic storm and won't really affect phl and nyc. Hopefully he's off base but he's had the hot hand lately. If you also read one of his replies in the post he made he did say the snow shield COULD reach NYC and CT or get no further north then Philly and CNJ. All of this however remains to be seen and it will most likely take a couple of more days before we know with more certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 don't forget about me bluewave im on LI as well im looking forward to maybe being one of the few times that I beat earthlight land in snowfall during a storm! <Resists the temptation to submit paperwork that clearly shows Union County is no snowier than Suffolk County as everyone appears to be in a good mood> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 <Resists the temptation to submit paperwork that clearly shows Union County is no snowier than Suffolk County as everyone appears to be in a good mood> just having fun my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 just having fun my friend NP pal...have a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Folks all I can say is this: - Get the gas, stabilizer if required, rock salt, and ear plugs. We might be snowblowing next week I think a 40-50 percent chance at this point. 4-6 inch snows, especially for LI. If we can get that northern end fringe 1/2 to 3/4 inch per hour rates "weenie" band ... 1/2 mi visibility w/ perfect dendrites and decent snowgrowth. Let's see what models show today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 12z trough is more positive at 108 than 6z at 114. This will end up ots. Edit: spoke to soon more northern interaction than 6z. Looks to be going up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Moderate snow into the area at 129 hours. Cold for all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 This is going to be a nice snow event for the area based off this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 12z trough is more positive at 108 than 6z at 114. This will end up ots. Edit: spoke to soon more northern interaction than 6z. Looks to be going up the coast. Looks good to me just judging off 126 hours..I think the surface low will slide E of OC MD and it looks like good overrunning will get up here. Like what I'm seeing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 500 mb not all that different from the 0z Euro/ ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Basically the same as 06z, gets a bit over .4" of liquid here so at least 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 That QPF and temps in the teens I will sign up for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 You can already tell the northern stream interaction will be a catalyst here and the wild card in the setup. Any faster or any more interaction and we'll probably see the surface low deepen faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 That QPF and temps in the teens I will sign up for teens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 That QPF and temps in the teens I will sign up for That would be a potent Arctic shot right behind the low with NNW winds and snow cover should it verify that way. Teens would probably give us at least 15 to 1 or maybe a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Basically the same as 06z, gets a bit over .4" of liquid here so at least 4-6" Based on cold ratios that's probably close to 6 to 8 Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 500 mb not all that different from the 0z Euro/ ENS. f132.gif f144.gif The Euro had STJ disturbance coming out of the Baja, involved here. The GFS just shreds it apart here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Based on cold ratios that's probably close to 6 to 8 Rossi Since that rarely works out I try to stay closer to 10 to 1 GFS is definitely frigid just behind the storm, single digits Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 teens? Yeh really close to 20 degrees at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 Based on cold ratios that's probably close to 6 to 8 Rossi agreed and no mixing here in NYC metro high pressure seems to be a very favorable position in southern Canada - this is now 2 GFS runs in a row that show a snowstorm here with a very favorable set up thats what we are looking for consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 We rarely see much more than 10:1 in the metro areas, UNLESS we get extremely heavy snow rates in banding with temps plummeting. Light to moderate snow events rarely go past 12:1...maybe 15:1 at times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 That would be a potent Arctic shot right behind the low with NNW winds and snow cover should it verify that way. Teens would probably give us at least 15 to 1 or maybe a little better. Yeh I agree w better than 10 to 1 Ahhh, I see minus the minus 20 air over snow cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Anything else snow wise showing up on 12z GFS? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 This still has potential to be a real big storm if the Euro idea of more southern energy and the low ultimately developing more as a Miller Aish system is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.