richm20 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Sorry was out to hr 84 and had to leave for a sec. It looks good, but would be nice to see the op come around. They seem to be trending in a bad way Trending with limited data. Keep an eye on the trend starting tomorrow night but even better 12Z Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 polar vort???......you betcha http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/reg/index.php?type=usa-wv-24 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dlh/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Certainly nothing written in stone at this time; but trends appear to indicate that best chances for somewhat higher snow amounts would be as one heads northeast with lesser amounts to the southwest... If I were betting I would be all in that there`s more snow from I 80 northward once East of the MTNS , but I would be all in as well if the bet was A WHIFF here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richm20 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Something tells me Wed night will be a LONG night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Something tells me Wed night will be a LONG night. god I hope not, we should know alot more by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The CIPS analogs are useless but also very telling today....the 96 and 120 hour panels did not come in but when you click on the 72 hour panel you see two different scenarios...clicking the Midwest/N Plains box you get no past snow events for us and mainly SW flow events that in no way really match this storm, but when you click down in the S Plains box you see PHL-TTN roughly being the cutoff for the historical snow events and its more Miller B type deals...basically sums up what we all knew already, the GFS is probably smashing the southern energy too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The CIPS analogs are useless but also very telling today....the 96 and 120 hour panels did not come in but when you click on the 72 hour panel you see two different scenarios...clicking the Midwest/N Plains box you get no past snow events for us and mainly SW flow events that in no way really match this storm, but when you click down in the S Plains box you see PHL-TTN roughly being the cutoff for the historical snow events and its more Miller B type deals...basically sums up what we all knew already, the GFS is probably smashing the southern energy too much. a known bias it has. its a crap shoot still by far, its one of those time meteorology over modelology comes into play with where the current players are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Be patient , Not gona miss .The models have to figure out the speed between the southern and northern stream and how fast they phase and the depth of the PV placement . 96 hours is a long time in modeling , the spray will narrow better once at 48 . I have never seen a storm from 5 days out get modeled 100 perc correct with 100 perc agreement between all models . Even the great ones make ur knees wobble a day or 2 out . There`s variance inside great storms at 36 hours at times . Easy to look at flip flop runs and jump off . Wait if this doesn't look better in a day or 2 then take that approach . Feb 2006 blizzard was balls on 6 days out, but that was nothing like what we have this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Feb 2006 blizzard was balls on 6 days out, but that was nothing like what we have this week. Although not a winter storm, Sandy was nailed by the models like 6 days out as well...and to make that historic left turn to boot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Although not a winter storm, Sandy was nailed by the models like 6 days out as well...and to make that historic left turn to boot... Some systems are easier to nail in the medium range than others. The ECMWF correctly recognized how an extreme block would influence the steering currents that would turn Sandy toward U.S. landfall. The current situation is far more complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Some systems are easier to nail in the medium range than others. The ECMWF correctly recognized how an extreme block would influence the steering currents that would turn Sandy toward U.S. landfall. The current situation is far more complex. I do use sandy as an example of how deadly accurate the EURO could be. once it locked onto AC, NJ landfall It set the bar where the rest of the models had to follow. it did spectacular. However, like you said ALOT more complex situation right now and is a mess to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Some systems are easier to nail in the medium range than others. The ECMWF correctly recognized how an extreme block would influence the steering currents that would turn Sandy toward U.S. landfall. The current situation is far more complex. one reason its more complex is the energy is still located close to a 500 or more miles west of the left coast - sandy was in a better sampling area I do believe for the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 one reason its more complex is the energy is still located close to a 1000 miles west of the left coast - sandy was in a better sampling area I do believe for the models it was it was in the atlantic not like you said WAY off the pacific coast. although I do believe there is still pretty good sampling in that area over lets say Canada where the sampling can be sparse and have drastic effects on the models "cough cough boxing day 2010" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 one reason its more complex is the energy is still located close to a 1000 miles west of the left coast - sandy was in a better sampling area I do believe for the models Not only that but it was a hurricane. The only thing to figure out was how strong would it be and where it was going. Even then many of the models got it wrong and I don't know if any showed our area only getting like an inch of rain. Nailing the details 6 days out is pretty rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If I were betting I would be all in that there`s more snow from I 80 northward once East of the MTNS , but I would be all in as well if the bet was A WHIFF here . You can tell when those snow maps are fouled up...like the 18z GFS having 8 to 10 inches in Groton, CT (a stone's throw from Block Island) and 1 to 2 inches in Port Jeff...the only time that sort of thing has a snowball's chance in hell of happening is if we had a Low well offshore that was expected to scrape the coast...and not one where precip type is in question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 here is an animation of what is coming this way from the pacific http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/PacificSatellite.aspx?animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 here is an animation of what is coming this way from the pacific http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/PacificSatellite.aspx?animate=true Nowcasting ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 here is an animation of what is coming this way from the pacific http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/PacificSatellite.aspx?animate=true That thing in the Pacific is going to make me snowblow on Thursday ?? Ear plugs ready, stabilizer ready, gas ready, pull the cord ... Let's snow blow and get to the storm, if it happens. WSW or WWA ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 That thing in the Pacific is going to make me snowblow on Thursday ?? Ear plugs ready, stabilizer ready, gas ready, pull the cord ... Let's snow blow and get to the storm, if it happens. WSW or WWA ???? WAY too early to be asking questions like that. we'll not be able to know what this storm is going to do by atleast tomorrow night or Tuesday the way the models are handling these vorts, PV and block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 NAM has lots of moisture available from the southern stream. Lets see if it is going to be tapped further on this latest run. I think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 NAM has lots of moisture available from the southern stream. Lets see if it is going to be tapped further on this latest run. I think so. the NAM is known for its fetish on high QPF. this will be an interesting run to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Moisture getting up to South Carolina at 60 hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This run still looks disjointed and the confluent shortwave on the south side of the PV is still lifting out faster than the prior runs. Nothing arguing, to me, that the primary low won't drive just as far north as the prior NAM run which when extrapolated onto the DGEX scheme was quite warm. That said, the changes in many regards are quite significant on the NAM so far (shocker there, I know). Speaks to the uncertainty of the setup as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This run still looks disjointed and the confluent shortwave on the south side of the PV is still lifting out faster than the prior runs. Nothing arguing, to me, that the primary low won't drive just as far north as the prior NAM run which when extrapolated onto the DGEX scheme was quite warm. That said, the changes in many regards are quite significant on the NAM so far (shocker there, I know). Speaks to the uncertainty of the setup as a whole. so what this accomplished was that we are still FAR from a conclusion with the substantial model uncertainty today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I dunno....we're hoping for this but c'mon....we barely have much of an organized system projected for OUR AREA lol...it truly is a disjointed mess. I'm still thinking 2-4" hopefully....but it doesn't look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 NAM is really trying to consolidate the energy and tilt things negative by 75hours. It's way less amplified than the 18 z run, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing if it ends up more consolidated in the end -- as the weaker primary low would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Man, that is an exciting looking 81 hour panel. Too bad it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Man, that is an exciting looking 81 hour panel. Too bad it's the NAM. don't have the image but is there an improvement for our area john? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Precipitation and a low forming off the North Carolina Coast at 81 hours. Which way will it go is the big question. OTS or more northward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Man, that is an exciting looking 81 hour panel. Too bad it's the NAM. Looks like the 50/50 low hangs around little west at 81 hrs and higher heights in the David Strait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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