January 2 - 3 Winter Storm Potential

[Stormlover74]

Now that the rather optimistic ECMWF ensembles have trended to a more northerly solution and cut back on snowfall quite a bit, I just can't see how you could possibly have a 12-18" event (MECS) still on the table.

By no means is this a storm cancel or whatever, but it would take some massive changes for that to be a plausible solution. Definitely on board for a moderate event for the entire sub forum though.

Sent from my SCH-I545

I don't think a light or moderate event can be locked down yet either. We could see nothing or a light mix/rain or just an extended period of light non accumulating snow

[earthlight]

Expected after seeing the 18z gfs the ens are pretty far north

 

What are you looking at? At 96 hours the mean surface low is east of OBX.

[donsutherland1]

No big changes in the 18z GEFS means. Individual members aren't out yet, but I suspect that the spread will remain fairly large.

[earthlight]

Expected after seeing the 18z gfs the ens are pretty far north

 

What are you looking at? At 96 hours the mean surface low is east of OBX.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Now that the rather optimistic ECMWF ensembles have joined the rest of the grouo with a more northerly solution and cut back on snowfall quite a bit, I just can't see how you could possibly have a 12-18" event (MECS) still on the table. By no means is this a storm cancel or whatever, but it would take some massive changes for that to be a plausible solution. Definitely on board for a moderate event for the entire sub forum though. Obviously it's still in the wait and see phase. Sent from my SCH-I545

18" is always highly unlikely. . 12" is definitely attainable if things go our way.

[earthlight]

No big changes in the 18z GEFS means. Individual members aren't out yet, but I suspect that the spread will remain fairly large.

 

Correct, the 90-108 hour spaghetti plots at 500mb show wild variation.

[REDMK6GLI]

guys this is FAR from being sorted out. in 36 hours how many varying solutions have we seen? people are getting weenieish and giving up on every model suite. just remember, this pattern is not condusive for a blown up long duration storm on the east coast to begin with. NO SOLUTION IS OFF THE TABLE RIGHT NOW, even Earthlight can agree with that

[Chaser25973]

The only thing that is certain at this point is that this won't be a MECS as some people were still going on about yesterday.

Pretty confident about a light to moderate event for this sub forum. Worst case scenario is that we see an inch or two followed by brutal cold.

Sent from my SCH-I545

 

Never say never. If we get this storm, I want it to be called the Kerwood Storm.

[NEG NAO]

18z GEFS still has 0.50 qpf amounts in the Metro

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2013122918/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_19.png

[Metsfan]

Check out my blog at liveweatherblogs.com on this potential threat. Thanks.

[Superstorm93]

Fwiw

It's going to be interesting to see how the hi res models handle this.

15z SREF

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

[SnowGoose69]

I would not trust any model right now and  would basically go for nothing more or less than a good chance of rain or snow.  The GFS as we know sucks on these sort of events and the ensembles have been all over, the European has been bad all winter and just a few days ago blew today's storm having it too far east.

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

I don't know part of me is saying give up and move on to the next one, and there's the other par of me telling me don't give up its not over yet. I keep trying to remind myself the pattern that we are in will not change in a matter of 3 days lol I am confused because you have the operational showing one thing and the ens showing another

[WintersGrasp]

I like a 2-4" call right now....for NENJ/NYC....however, stretch this east into Long Island....we could be looking at a 2-10" call lol....obviously the 2" for NNJ with higher amounts unlikely, but possible for eastern Long Island

[PB GFI]

I would not trust any model right now and  would basically go for nothing more or less than a good chance of rain or snow.  The GFS as we know sucks on these sort of events and the ensembles have been all over, the European has been bad all winter and just a few days ago blew today's storm having it too far east.

And was adamant for 4 straight days .

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

I don't know part of me is saying give up and move on to the next one, and there's the other par of me telling me don't give up its not over yet. I keep trying to remind myself the pattern that we are in will not change in a matter of 3 days lol I am confused because you have the operational showing one thing and the ens showing another

You should tell the part of you that wants to give up to check itself. There is NO reason to give up on this yet.

[REDMK6GLI]

You should tell the part of you that wants to give up to check itself. There is NO reason to give up on this yet.

Starting to become more and more likely this may end up the way the models are waffling both through the operation and ensemble runs that this storm will suprise a good amount of people even inside of 48 hours. So many different nuances in this flow that will have big implications as an entirety as it heads to the east/east coast.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Starting to become more and more likely this may end up the way the models are waffling both through the operation and ensemble runs that this storm will suprise a good amount of people even inside of 48 hours. So many different nuances in this flow that will have big implications as an entirety as it heads to the east/east coast.

No question that we will be monitoring the rgem and euro Wednesday afternoon still trying to nail this one down.

[REDMK6GLI]

No question that we will be monitoring the rgem and euro Wednesday afternoon still trying to nail this one down.

Yes sir and still wouldnt surprise me if this came down to nowcasting as well although i highly doubt all models concerned really crap the bed that bad as some should atleast have an idea of the final stand of the primary and how fast and where the secondary takes over deepens

[richm20]

I like a 2-4" call right now....for NENJ/NYC....however, stretch this east into Long Island....we could be looking at a 2-10" call lol....obviously the 2" for NNJ with higher amounts unlikely, but possible for eastern Long Island

1-3, 3-6, or 6-12. We wont get any good model info until tomorrow night AT BEST!

[SnowGoose69]

Starting to become more and more likely this may end up the way the models are waffling both through the operation and ensemble runs that this storm will suprise a good amount of people even inside of 48 hours. So many different nuances in this flow that will have big implications as an entirety as it heads to the east/east coast.

 

I think sometime in the next 3 models runs, tonight, tomorrow am, or tomorrow night we see all the models start to catch on one way or the other, this could mean a drastic shift one direction, I still think there is a better chance this is a complete miss than it ends up being like the 12Z Euro.

[Heisy]

Big (good) changes on a lot of the 18z individual ensembles, 00z might show some changes.

[REDMK6GLI]

I think sometime in the next 3 models runs, tonight, tomorrow am, or tomorrow night we see all the models start to catch on one way or the other, this could mean a drastic shift one direction, I still think there is a better chance this is a complete miss than it ends up being like the 12Z Euro.

Leaning towards a miss as well but with the way the past 48 hours of modeling has gone NOTHING is off the table. These models have truly been clueless as of yet with the wide variations

[Doorman]

 the pac shortwave energy looks very robust ATM

lets see how it translates downstream

 

gut feeling this storm lays it down(snow)for our area

better than modeled today

 

 

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=ir&inv=0&t=l12&region=we

 

[Heisy]

A lot more robust 500mb tracks on the 18z indi's....

 

[REDMK6GLI]

the pac shortwave energy looks very robust ATM

lets see how it translates downstream

gut feeling this storm lays it down(snow)for our area

better than modeled today

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=ir&inv=0&t=l12&region=we

sat_ir_west_loop-12.gif

Does look robust for sure. I know when you have southern waves in play in the pacific and land fall is still well over 24 hours away models are most often than not will struggle till it makes landfall and location and strength is samples properly.... In most cases

[PB GFI]

Leaning towards a miss as well but with the way the past 48 hours of modeling has gone NOTHING is off the table. These models have truly been clueless as of yet with the wide variations

Be patient , Not gona miss .The models have to figure out the speed between the southern and northern stream and how fast they phase and

the depth of the PV placement  .  96 hours is a long time in modeling , the spray will narrow  better once at  48 .

I have never seen a storm from 5 days out get modeled 100 perc correct with 100 perc agreement between all models .

Even the great ones make ur knees wobble a day or 2 out .

There`s variance inside great storms at 36 hours at times . Easy to look at flip flop runs and jump off .

Wait if this doesn't look better in a day or 2 then take that approach .

[REDMK6GLI]

Be patient , Not gona miss .The models have to figure out the speed between the southern and northern stream and how fast they phase and

the depth of the PV placement  .  96 hours is a long time in modeling , the spray will narrow  better once at  48 .

I have never seen a storm from 5 days out get modeled 100 perc correct with 100 perc agreement between all models .

Even the great ones make ur knees wobble a day or 2 out .

There`s variance inside great storms at 36 hours at times . Easy to look at flip flop runs and jump off .

Wait if this doesn't look better in a day or 2 then take that approach .

 

the leaning towards a miss was a prediction due to the pattern were in and not the eventual outcome that is FAR from being sure thing until the 48 hour mark bud

[Guest Pamela]

Certainly nothing written in stone at this time; but trends appear to indicate that best chances for somewhat higher snow amounts would be as one heads northeast with lesser amounts to the southwest...

[Allsnow]

What are you looking at? At 96 hours the mean surface low is east of OBX.

Sorry was out to hr 84 and had to leave for a sec. It looks good, but would be nice to see the op come around. They seem to be trending in a bad way