January 2 - 3 Winter Storm Potential

[SleetStormNJ]

IMO, expectations should not be skewed to extremes at this point. Both a little or no snow scenario for the greater NYC area and a blockbuster snowfall are low probability events barring later data. There remains a realistic possibility of a light (1"-3") or moderate (3"-6") accumulation in the greater NYC area. The relatively steady ECMWF ensembles probably offer the best guidance at this time. Uncertainty remains high.

 

Yep.  Good to have your voice on here as well as Forky's.

 

As a casual weather observer, while some Miller A's have proven to be blockbuster storms, I've always found these potential Miller B setups/systems really amazing to watch even when the area I'm at doesn't get a particularly direct impact.  It's especially when we get to within 24 hours of the event and then watching as the players on the field go to work so to speak with the primary/transfer of energy as it unfolds along with the positioning of the other elements (high pressure, blocking, etc).  Watching the radars is always exciting along with the other tools available nowadays especially when you get real-time play by play action from knowledgeable folks such as yourself and other Mets on here, and Earthlight too.

[Storm At Sea]

With Miller B's, it normally is an extreme outcome. At this point, its looking like a brief 1-2 in stint followed by cold...further south of NYC, nada.

[Allsnow]

Hr 87 two lows off the coast of nc. Lol light snow in area

[earthlight]

This entire thing is still just too far north for my liking. This setup doesn't have the volatile look that it did yesterday.

 

The positive vorticity advection from the initial shortwave leads me to believe the primary low could in fact be stronger as some of the models are indicating. This could be a problem as the secondary would then form overhead with the elongated PV pressing on the pattern to the north. Look how the initial overrunning snows are now so far north of the area into New England...that's a tell-tale sign that we need the northern stream to really dig farther south and amplify. Otherwise you're just asking for problems.

[Allsnow]

Hr 90 light snow continues

[earthlight]

This run is a big improvement in regards to the northern stream energy and amplification compared to 12z, though. That is for sure.

[TWCCraig]

GFS is actually much better this run. Low starts deepening SE of LI. Close with 850 temps but precip is there.

[donsutherland1]

Yep.  Good to have your voice on here as well as Forky's.

 

As a casual weather observer, while some Miller A's have proven to be blockbuster storms, I've always found these potential Miller B setups/systems really amazing to watch even when the area I'm at doesn't get a particularly direct impact.  It's especially when we get to within 24 hours of the event and then watching as the players on the field go to work so to speak with the primary/transfer of energy as it unfolds along with the positioning of the other elements (high pressure, blocking, etc).  Watching the radars is always exciting along with the other tools available nowadays especially when you get real-time play by play action from knowledgeable folks such as yourself and other Mets on here, and Earthlight too.

 

IMO, the NWS Upton AFD does well in describing where things stand. Excerpts:

 

BEST GUESS RIGHT NOW IS FOR THE CENTER OF THE STORM TO PASS NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. MODELS OVER THE PAST DAY SEEM TO HAVE SPED UP THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM A LITTLE...SO WHILE THE TIMING OF THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF PCPN IS STILL UNCERTAIN...CONFIDENCE IN PCPN OF SOME FORM AT SOME POINT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IS INCREASING.

 

[Allsnow]

Gfs is 1-3 at best. Ptype issues for coast

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Gfs is 1-3 at best. Ptype issues for coast

Has been the patter since Early December should come as no surpirse

[TWCCraig]

GFS @ hr 96. As stated coast might have ptype issue but I wouldn't worry about that yet with models flip flopping still. If this was all snow it would be more than 1-3"

 

[WeatherFox]

Yes, any mixing issues will be unforunate and turn whatever we get into slop. The low is juicier but brings that 850 mb thermal too far north.

[Allsnow]

I think forky is correct. This is going to crap fast. We went from a fresh dome of artic air with over-running and costal preciep to light rain/mix. The pv is also further north. I knew the primary being so fat north was a concern last night

[Allsnow]

Yes, any mixing issues will be unforunate and turn whatever we get into slop. The low is juicier but brings that 850 mb thermal too far north.

Yep the primary going into Pitt is going to torch our mid levels

[Allsnow]

North shore of Long Island stands a chance of 3-6 on this setup

[Zelocita Weather]

This looks very much like the dec storm to me.....very very similar with a little more coastal development possible. 2-4/3-6" I think is a good bet

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

how long till the GFS ENS thats about all i am interested in at this point

[Weathergun]

The 850mb low tracks too far north and west. Same track as on the 12z Euro ensemble mean:

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Before one locks into the 18z GFS run's solution, one should bear in mind that the event is still far enough away that the model can be off. Indeed, in this run, the model forecast 0.62" rain between 18z and 0z for NYC. So far, 1.05" has fallen since 18z. That's a pretty big miss. The major point: this is a highly complex pattern and the details have yet to be worked out.

[Superstorm93]

The only thing that is certain at this point is that this won't be a MECS as some people were still going on about yesterday.

Pretty confident about a light to moderate event for this sub forum. Worst case scenario is that we see an inch or two followed by brutal cold.

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[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The only thing that is certain at this point is that this won't be a MECS as some people were still going on about yesterday. Pretty confident about a light to moderate event for this sub forum. Worst case scenario is that we see an inch or two followed by brutal cold. Sent from my SCH-I545

. I see. Basically another chump change event. Still watching and waiting.

[EasternLI]

. I see. Basically another chump change event. Still watching and waiting.

 

All I see is a potential miller b with details to be ironed out

[Isotherm]

This seems to happen almost every time we have a storm threat, people ready to write off at D 5. Nothing is set and stone and no guarantees can be made at this stage of the game. Everything from no snow at all to a major event is still on the table, depending upon the factors described earlier. The next couple cycles of Euro / ensembles are important as we approach their more accurate range.

[REDMK6GLI]

Before one locks into the 18z GFS run's solution, one should bear in mind that the event is still far enough away that the model can be off. Indeed, in this run, the model forecast 0.62" rain between 18z and 0z for NYC. So far, 1.05" has fallen since 18z. That's a pretty big miss. The major point: this is a highly complex pattern and the details have yet to be worked out.

 

this is VERY true and surprised no one is bringing is this up either

[NJHurricane]

but it shifted north from 00z. IMO, we're out of the game on this one unless there's a drastic shift tonight

Agreed....its nice to look at ensembles and go, " hey that mean looks good"....but if the optimistic ens mean keeps trending towards the pessimistic op, rather than the other way around...so long as the ops hold their ground and the ensemble mean keeps drifting in the same direction there isnt a solid basis for optimism right now....of course i hope it changes

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

The only thing that is certain at this point is that this won't be a MECS as some people were still going on about yesterday. Pretty confident about a light to moderate event for this sub forum. Worst case scenario is that we see an inch or two followed by brutal cold. Sent from my SCH-I545

A MECS is still very much on the table. To say otherwise is ridiculous.

[Allsnow]

Expected after seeing the 18z gfs the ens are pretty far north

[richm20]

First post so Ill start by saying hello.

Forget the models until todays storm is behind us, let them get more data, let the disturbance enter the country. If you want snow anl like the models take a look at the 12Z ECMWF. That gives us more hope.

 

MECS is just as possible as light rain at this point, time will tell.

Ill start believing models at 12z tuesday.

[Eduardo]

All I see is a potential miller b with details to be ironed out

This! Way too early to nail down specifics, especially given the number of variables in play and the vast array of possibilities concerning their timing. Just because today didn't feature the model porn we all loved last night hardly means we are out of the game!

[Superstorm93]

The only thing that is certain at this point is that this won't be a MECS as some people were still going on about yesterday. Pretty confident about a light to moderate event for this sub forum. Worst case scenario is that we see an inch or two followed by brutal cold. Sent from my SCH-I545

A MECS is still very much on the table. To say otherwise is ridiculous.

Now that the rather optimistic ECMWF ensembles have joined the rest of the grouo with a more northerly solution and cut back on snowfall quite a bit, I just can't see how you could possibly have a 12-18" event (MECS) still on the table.

By no means is this a storm cancel or whatever, but it would take some massive changes for that to be a plausible solution. Definitely on board for a moderate event for the entire sub forum though.

Obviously it's still in the wait and see phase.

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