January 2 - 3 Winter Storm Potential

[NEG NAO]

back what up? 

 

edit:  are you disagreeing with my statement about the amount of qpf?

yes sir - I have to go with what HPC has just released this afternoon - no sense in second guessing them 4 - 5 days out - some highly qualified pro METS there

[alwaysready126]

I disagree with you again - what evidence do you have to back this up with 4 days out ? - show me some and I will consider it - thanks

 

and just so you know... I am not saying it going to change for the better.  what was the last statement you disagreed with as you said "again?"

[alwaysready126]

yes sir - I have to go with what HPC has just released this afternoon - no sense in second guessing them 4 - 5 days out - some highly qualified pro METS there

 

 

here is your eveidence, SIR...SMH.

[NEG NAO]

here is your eveidence, SIR...SMH.

that chart only brings us out to 78 hours before the storm starts - thats why I say no sense in second guessing HPC 4 - 5 days away from the event - go with the Pro's

 

Here is their Discussion

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

1049 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2013

VALID 12Z WED JAN 01 2014 - 12Z SUN JAN 05 2014

...SNOW AND BITTER COLD TO GRIP MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE

WEEK...

RELIED ON THE 12Z/28 EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC

GUIDE THIS FORECAST. THAT PARTICULAR MEAN AFFORDS A SMOOTHER

TRANSITION FROM YESTERDAY'S MANUAL PROGS THAN THE 00Z/29

VERSIONS--ECENS, GEFS, CMCE. WHILE ALL OF THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL

MODELS AGREE ON A SHARP ARCTIC OUTBREAK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO

THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AFTER THE TURN OF THE YEAR, THE SOLUTION

SPREAD WITH REGARD TO THE SHORTWAVE INTERPLAY OVER THE EASTERN

STATES IS STILL LARGE--DISCONCERTINGLY SO GIVEN THE WINTER WEATHER

IMPACT THIS EVENT IS CAPABLE OF DELIVERING. IF THERE IS A TREND TO

BE GLEANED FROM THE LAST 24 HOURS OF GUIDANCE, IT WOULD BE THE

TIPPING OF THE SCALES TOWARD MILLER-B-TYPE CYCLOGENESIS--E.G.,

MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS DIVIDED BY THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN

CHAIN. THE DENOTED COMPLEXITY OF MILLER-B-TYPE SYSTEMS MAKES

FORECASTING THE ATTENDANT HAZARDS FAR DICIER THAN

MILLER-A-TYPES--ONE LOW TRACKING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO UP THE

ATLANTIC COAST. IN GENERAL, THE CLIMATOLOGY OF MILLER-B-TYPES

REVEALS INCREASING INCIDENCE OF HEAVY SNOWFALL NORTHWARD AND

EASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST--UNDER THE COMMA HEAD TRACK OF

THE COMPOSITE CYCLONE. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIKELY TO COMPRISE THE

UPCOMING SYSTEM HAILS FROM BOTH SIDES OF THE SPLIT FLOW OVER

ALASKA AND THE YUKON. THE DATA DEARTH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND

ARCTIC OCEANS IS MOST PROBABLY THE BIG MUDDLING FACTOR. THINGS

SHOULD COME INTO BETTER FOCUS ONCE THE ENERGY OF ORIGIN IS BETTER

READ.

THE FULL-LATITUDE SPLIT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL

CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DRY. THE PACIFIC

NORTHWEST WILL BE GRAZED BY ENERGY WIGGLING THROUGH THE SPLIT.

LATE IN THE PERIOD, THE NEXT MAJOR SHORTWAVE INTERACTION SHOULD

OCCUR OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. FOR NOW, WILL RELY ON THE ROBUST

AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS THAT DEPICT CONTINUED

NORTHERN STREAM DOMINANCE.

CISCO

 

[alwaysready126]

I knew you were going to go down that route which is why I had this post copied to my clipboard.  DO I have to explain to you why verification for all three methods go down over time?  Your 4-5 days is off the chart and not worth talking about.  The HPC themselves will tell you that the forecast they release 4-5 days ahead of time will probably change as you get closer to the event.  

 

but to your point, the QPF forecast released by the HPC is probably the most accurate.

[Stormlover74]

Come on guys take it to banter please

[Superstorm93]

With the way things have been going...i'll gladly take this

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[donsutherland1]

I disagree especially since HPC has us in 0.50 -0.75 range qpf

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif

 

I, for one, like the WPC idea.

 

At this time, the situation is still highly dynamic. Much can change. One has seen generally poor run-to-run continuity on the operational models with a range of solutions. The ECMWF ensembles have been a little better and are probably the way to go. What seems fairly certain is that this will be a Miller B-type system and climatology favors a larger impact on New England than the Mid-Atlantic region. In forecasting qpf, it makes sense to maintain reasonable continuity with earlier ideas rather than swinging wildly from little qpf to blockbuster amounts, especially with the ensembles favoring a moderate qpf event.

 

WPC's solution seems about the best out there given the high degree of uncertainty, volatility in model solutions, and climatology.

[rossi]

I, for one, like the WPC idea.

 

At this time, the situation is still highly dynamic. Much can change. One has seen generally poor run-to-run continuity on the operational models with a range of solutions. The ECMWF ensembles have been a little better and are probably the way to go. What seems fairly certain is that this will be a Miller B-type system and climatology favors a larger impact on New England than the Mid-Atlantic region. In forecasting qpf, it makes sense to maintain reasonable continuity with earlier ideas rather than swinging wildly from little qpf to blockbuster amounts, especially with the ensembles favoring a moderate qpf event.

 

WPC's solution seems about the best out there given the high degree of uncertainty, volatility in model solutions, and climatology.

Anyone see today's Euro ensembles?

Rossi

[NEG NAO]

Come on guys take it to banter please

that wasn't banter debating an official HPC forecast - was a good discussion - banter is what you just posted and I am posting now lol

[Weathergun]

The 12z Euro ensemble mean is south of the 12z op run. Primary low is over KY at 96hr. Secondary low takes over, just east of Ocean City, MD at 108hr. Then tracks over the BM by 120hr.

[XtremeWx]

The 12z Euro ensemble mean is south of the 12z op run. Primary low is over KY at 96hr. Secondary low takes over. east of Ocean City, MD at 108hr. Then tracks over the BM by 120hr.

Much better than the op.

[Allsnow]

The 12z Euro ensemble mean is south of the 12z op run. Primary low is over KY at 96hr. Secondary low takes over, just east of Ocean City, MD at 108hr. Then tracks over the BM by 120hr.

That's secys

[SnowGoose69]

The Op Euro trying to drive the primary over the Apps of PA is insanity, if that scenario unfolds as the Euro shows, the coastal would take over 6-12 hours earlier at least, primary lows may cut west of the Apps but they do not cut over them, especially taking a trajectory from WSW to ENE as that low does.

[rossi]

The 12z Euro ensemble mean is south of the 12z op run. Primary low is over KY at 96hr. Secondary low takes over, just east of Ocean City, MD at 108hr. Then tracks over the BM by 120hr.

What are the results for our area?

Rossi

[alwaysready126]

The Op Euro trying to drive the primary over the Apps of PA is insanity, if that scenario unfolds as the Euro shows, the coastal would take over 6-12 hours earlier at least, primary lows may cut west of the Apps but they do not cut over them, especially taking a trajectory from WSW to ENE as that low does.

thats not a subtle difference.  changes the whole ballgame.  nothing can be discounted currently.

[Isotherm]

The 12z Euro ensemble mean is south of the 12z op run. Primary low is over KY at 96hr. Secondary low takes over, just east of Ocean City, MD at 108hr. Then tracks over the BM by 120hr.

 

 

Yep, much more favorable look on the mean. Energy transfer occurs quite a bit further south, over the Mid-atlantic.

[SnoSki14]

Yep, much more favorable look on the mean. Energy transfer occurs quite a bit further south, over the Mid-atlantic.

 

That's more textbook Miller B actually. While a Miller B favors New England more so than us, it still generally delivers at least a decent snow event as far south as Philadelphia. The 40N mark is usually a good indicator as well for who gets good amounts and who doesn't. 

[Doorman]

OPC 96 hr outlook

 

takes the low down to 987mb (extrap) 

 

 

 

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif

[PB GFI]

The 12z euro ensembles track is similar to the 12z GFS which is about the best track we can ask for at the surface

Just a matter of can this consolidate aloft .

[forkyfork]

The 12z Euro ensemble mean is south of the 12z op run. Primary low is over KY at 96hr. Secondary low takes over, just east of Ocean City, MD at 108hr. Then tracks over the BM by 120hr.

but it shifted north from 00z. IMO, we're out of the game on this one unless there's a drastic shift tonight

[monmouthcounty11]

Totally out of it's range at 78-84h, but the 18z NAM is light years different from the 12z GFS at the same time frame, just showing the realm of possibilities.  

[MJO812]

but it shifted north from 00z. IMO, we're out of the game on this one unless there's a drastic shift tonight

Out of the game 4 days out? We just need a quicker transfer which is quite possible. It did shift slighlty north but it is still a good deal south of the op.

[Superstorm93]

The 12z Euro ensemble mean is south of the 12z op run. Primary low is over KY at 96hr. Secondary low takes over, just east of Ocean City, MD at 108hr. Then tracks over the BM by 120hr.but it shifted north from 00z. IMO, we're out of the game on this one unless there's a drastic shift tonight

I can agree that if there isn't some miraculous shift tonight, then we're probably out of the moderate to heavy snow game.

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[jm1220]

I can agree that if there isn't some miraculous shift tonight, then we're probably out of the moderate to heavy snow game.

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The odds favor this being another one for Boston, as is typical in these Miller B setups and with the progressive, Nina pattern we still have. But I still think we have a chance.

[donsutherland1]

IMO, expectations should not be skewed to extremes at this point. Both a little or no snow scenario for the greater NYC area and a blockbuster snowfall are low probability events barring later data. There remains a realistic possibility of a light (1"-3") or moderate (3"-6") accumulation in the greater NYC area. The relatively steady ECMWF ensembles probably offer the best guidance at this time. Uncertainty remains high.

[Superstorm93]

Fwiw...

The ECMWF ensemble mean has 4.9'' for NYC. Not bad

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[forkyfork]

The odds favor this being another one for Boston, as is typical in these Miller B setups and with the progressive, Nina pattern we still have. But I still think we have a chance.

it needs to be more consolidated. look at the multiple low centers and areas of precip

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=42.28542&lon=-70.25751&zoom=6&type=terrain&units=english&tl.play=0&tl.spd=2&viewportstart=now-3640&viewportend=now-40&groupSevere=1&groupHurricane=1&groupFire=1&groupCamsPhotos=1&groupRealEstate=1&eyedropper=0&extremes=0&fault=0&favs=0&femaflood=0&fire=0&firewfas=0&fissures=0&fronts=0&hurrevac=0&hur=0&labels=0&lightning=0&livesurge=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=ECMWF&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=120&mm.opa=100&ndfd=0&rad=0&dir=1&dir.mode=driving&sst=0&sat=0&seismicrisk=0&svr=0&ski=0&snowfall=0&stateLines=0&stormreports=0&tor=0&tfk=0&tsunami=0&riv=0&wxsn=0&cams=0&pix=0&PrecipStart=0

[Allsnow]

Gfs has light snow for the ball drop

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

IMO, expectations should not be skewed to extremes at this point. Both a little or no snow scenario for the greater NYC area and a blockbuster snowfall are low probability events barring later data. There remains a realistic possibility of a light (1"-3") or moderate (3"-6") accumulation in the greater NYC area. The relatively steady ECMWF ensembles probably offer the best guidance at this time. Uncertainty remains high.

My thoughts exactly. I don't understand the all or nothing mindset towards this storm.