EasternLI Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Nogaps is amped fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Through 84 primary is further south on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 This is going to be a better run then 00z.primary in ky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Primary again hangs on to long. Hr 102 rain snow line to 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Hr 108 way too late. Primary gets to central pa. Secondary below Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Hr 114 moving out. The area at best gets 1-3 on this run. Brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The Primary hangs on too long on the Euro . The GFS surface depiction was perfect for us. Even though the op was bad aloft the ensembles lookec good. the Navgem has it. The GGEM doesn't . So since there's Zero continuity from run to run means don't etch any of these in stone The models are having a hard time figuring the strength of the PV and how fast the southern feature takes over. Mayhem means hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 The Primary hangs on too long on the Euro . The GFS surface depiction was perfect for us. Even though the op was bad aloft the ensembles lookec good. the Navgem has it. The GGEM doesn't . So since there's Zero continuity from run to run means don't etch any of these in stone The models are having a hard time figuring the strength of the PV and how fast the southern feature takes over. Mayhem means hold I think we have to consider the ensembles with both the GFS and Euro the Euro ensembles come out at 3 - as long as the ensembles have a moderate event which the GFS ensembles did - we still are in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The Primary hangs on too long on the Euro . The GFS surface depiction was perfect for us. Even though the op was bad aloft the ensembles lookec good. the Navgem has it. The GGEM doesn't . So since there's Zero continuity from run to run means don't etch any of these in stone The models are having a hard time figuring the strength of the PV and how fast the southern feature takes over. Mayhem means hold I was thinking the models (all) are having a hard time since the blocking is trying to re establish, but could be wrong lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I was thinking the models (all) are having a hard time since the blocking is trying to re establish, but could be wrong lol Does anyone have a map showing heights rising or decreasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 We still have time for this to shake itself up but if the blocking yields at all it becomes an I-90 and north storm. Hopefully we at least see something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 From a big snowstorm on the 12z run yesterday to nothing today. Model mayhem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Going to be one of the situations where we have to see the run to run nuances over the next couple days as the systems come into play with sampling and data and what the other ingredients are doing (type and degree of blocking, PV). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 nevermind...i got it. is the dark blue shade what is referred to as confluence? looks to be some blocking near greenland but it seems to be weak and way north. am i interpreting this correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 No need to stress about this, just let things play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The Euro is still adamant about temps below zero N and W and single digits in NYC Sat AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The Euro is still adamant about temps below zero N and W and single digits in NYC Sat AM Hopefully it's not cold and bare ground....would like to see the pv also further south on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 National weather service forecast for NYC... New Year's Day Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29.... Wednesday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%.... Thursday A chance of snow and freezing rain. Cloudy, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 50%.... Thursday Night A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 50%.... Friday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Chance of precipitation is 40%.... Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 14.... that's a long storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Blocking building south over Baffin Island on the 12z Euro. But the storm is moving too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Hopefully it's not cold and bare ground....would like to see the pv also further south on euro If the ensembles argue with the operational on the placement of the PV at 72 hrs then the primary can dig south and downstream it gets better for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 National weather service forecast for NYC... New Year's Day Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29.... Wednesday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%.... Thursday A chance of snow and freezing rain. Cloudy, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 50%.... Thursday Night A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 50%.... Friday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Chance of precipitation is 40%.... Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 14.... that's a long storm... yes a long storm that some folks are saying is moving so fast ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 This is why we should wait until either the 12z runs on Monday or 00z runs Tuesday morning before jumping on or off the significant storm bandwagon, I would just go with the ensembles for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 If the ensembles argue with the operational on the placement of the PV at 72 hrs then the primary can dig south and downstream it gets better for us If im not mistaken havent the euro ens. Performed better than the op. runs thus far this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 yes a long storm that some folks are saying is moving so fast ??? Not exactly a storm..several hours of light overrunning snow with breaks and maybe another period of snow from the coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 If im not mistaken havent the euro ens. Performed better than the op. runs thus far this season? Yes. But having the euro on ur side 4 days out is helpful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 Not exactly a storm..several hours of light overrunning snow with breaks and maybe another period of snow from the coastal I disagree especially since HPC has us in 0.50 -0.75 range qpf http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I disagree especially since HPC has us in 0.50 -0.75 range qpf http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif that will probably change too. how many times have we said, dont pay attention to the QPF amounts until we are 48 hours out? with that said, however, we always say...focus on the track for now. so...meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 So the signal of a storm for Jan 2nd-3rd will verify, the question now is who will be most significantly impacted. It's becoming clearer that this will likely be primarily northern stream driven, a Miller B regime, as the initial clipper tracks eastward then is forced to redevelop offshore due to the confluence. Miller B's tend to be much more common in neutral ENSO or Nina winters, although the STJ can activate in said years. However, the MJO is very weak and will not be offering support for a enhanced sub tropical jet for this event. Therefore our snow potential rests in the confluent flow being strong enough to cause a more southerly tracking clipper, and that will be determined by the position of the positive height anomaly downstream near Greenland. Climatology for these synoptic set-ups favors New England. When we compared January 2005 situation to the progged pattern on the Euro, notice how in the former, the NWLY flow at 500mb continued in New England as the clipper was propagating through the Mid-west. The current Euro indicates a WLY flow at H5 over New England when the short wave moves through the Mid-west, suggesting that the 50-50 vortex and associated confluent flow is already beginning to lift northward. This promotes a further north energy transfer and so today's runs at the surface make sense meteorologically given the 500mb progression. The question is are models incorrect on the positioning of confluence and will the downstream block be a bit further south. There's still plenty of potential on the map but right now I wouldn't get excited for anything big southwest of MA/CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 that will probably change too. how many times have we said, dont pay attention to the QPF amounts until we are 48 hours out? with that said, however, we always say...focus on the track for now. so...meh. I disagree with you again - what evidence do you have to back this up with 4 days out ? - show me some and I will consider it - thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I disagree with you again - what evidence do you have to back this up with 4 days out ? - show me some and I will consider it - thanks back what up? edit: are you disagreeing with my statement about the amount of qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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