MJO812 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 It was nice to see the secondary forming earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Haven't heard alit about the block since yesterday a 12z is it still there or weaker?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 PB GFI i surprised you didnt add at the end of that "this is the GFS so we'll never know the methods of what it does" lol. Looked a little odd to me for sure, we do have king euro at 1 pm which should clarify if the GFS is once again smoking what it shouldnt be again Can't discount it because I don't like it. It is strung out , but its bias is to be east 4 days out . I do like the deeper look to the euro . But that primary came thru the slot nice. It died early. Secondary was there and would Think it would deepen faster aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The GFS has a tendency to overdo an idea, then pull away from it completely, then meet in the middle with a solution within 2 days or so....all in all, I'm expecting a 2-4" snowfall here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The pv being further north is killing us. 36 hrs ago it was forecast to be much further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 LOL if you grewup in the 70's , 80's, early 90's you would've pissed on a sparkplug for snow. I have a bad habit of projecting no one anywhere knows what ma nature will reveal. The trend is your friend heck i'm more impressed with maybe breaking some record lows. . The overall pattern is promising Some will be pleasantly surprised others will be cutting onions just my obs see ya.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 If we can squeeze out 3 inches in the nyc metro from a disjointed system i think thats not too bad. Hopefully things can get slightly better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 If we can squeeze out 3 inches in the nyc metro from a disjointed system i think thats not too bad. Hopefully things can get slightly better. I don't think we can definetly say at this point if this will be a disjointed system - lets get todays system out of the way - get the Jan 2-3 onshore out west and see how the models handle it in about 24 - 48 hours - The NAM and EURO are still hinting at a more intense better organized storm - next up the GFS ensembles and the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 with the GFS and its known bias, it's hard to give up just yet on the storm for Thurs/Fri being more than just a nuisance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 GFS definitely pulled back on the prolonged cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 GFS definitely pulled back on the prolonged cold Not really. Its been showing a big warmup by early next week. Only now its very short lived and it gets very cold again by around the 9th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 When do the ensembles come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 My sentiments exactly....now radically reduced expectations, but still holding out hope. Although the pattern seems to be flattening out in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The evolution of the GFS track looks really good , at hr 90 the primary doesn't head into the lower lakes its aimed through the Ohio valley at hr 96 there's a secondary off hatteras . Then it's to cape cod. The track is a good as you are gona get , just have to find a way to be deeper east of AC and not E of Montauk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The evolution of the GFS track looks really good , at hr 90 the primary doesn't head into the lower lakes its aimed through the Ohio valley at hr 96 there's a secondary off hatteras . Then it's to cape cod. The track is a good as you are gona get , just have to find a way to be deeper east of AC and not E of Montauk. Think its prudent to see what the ensembles mean and especially the 12z euro decide to do with what the gfs op just printed out. In a few hours they're "should" be some more clarity, albeit not much due to the pattern but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 12Z GFS ensembles have a classic Miller B look with the 0.50 - 0.75 total precip at 120 hours from central NJ north and east over 6 inches snow especially if the ratios are higher then 10:1 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2013122912/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_20.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Gfs mean is further south with the primary and it also has earlier secondary development which leads to a stronger coastal storm. There must be some amped up idv members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Compared to the 06z run, the 12z GEFS have a much stronger block near the Davis Straight and subsequently are more amplified and closer to the coast with the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Navgem is an amplified winter SECS. Might be precip issues actually but great to see these amped solutions still on the table. The least of our worries is a strong primary hanging on too long IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Compared to the 06z run, the 12z GEFS have a much stronger block near the Davis Straight and subsequently are more amplified and closer to the coast with the trough. That's encouraging. We absolutely need that in place in a pattern like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Compared to the 06z run, the 12z GEFS have a much stronger block near the Davis Straight and subsequently are more amplified and closer to the coast with the trough. That's something positive, the OP may be short changing with the available energy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Ggem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Ggem?Disjointed mess. Not much of anything for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Disjointed mess. Not much of anything for us. Ala gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Ala gfs?Less. Gfs is actually a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Disjointed mess. Not much of anything for us. Ala gfs? Worse....nothing really for us....storm doesn't come together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Compared to the 06z run, the 12z GEFS have a much stronger block near the Davis Straight and subsequently are more amplified and closer to the coast with the trough. Coming from you that is encouraging. We have to see what the EURO decides to tease us with at 1 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Ggem? GGEM really isnt tha good of a model to begin with in my opinion. EURO then GFS and any other model is secondary until you get to the short range hi-res models like the HRRR which has been lethal accurate this year, an MVP season for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 GGEM really isnt tha good of a model to begin with in my opinion. EURO then GFS and any other model is secondary until you get to the short range hi-res models like the HRRR which has been lethal accurate this year, an MVP season for sure however, if the GGEM showed a big snowstorm it would be hugged like environmentalists hug trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 There was a post a while back that explained the weenie process for winter storms, and it was dead on accurate and funny. Need one for the anti weenies here too. A few days ago folks were hugging tightly packed isobars in the long range and saying that it would be cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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