January 2 - 3 Winter Storm Potential

[jm1220]

Miller B's tend to favor New England more than our area. There were some instances where our area received more snow than areas to our north. We just have to hope that the primary transfers further south so the secondary can blow up further to the south.

We need the 50-50 feature to be in place. Otherwise, this cuts right into Erie and it's a nonevent for just about all of us.

[jm1220]

Even me on LI would be late for me. Fits what the pattern has been like this whole winter perfectly pretty much

Shows to a T why Nina patterns are horrible for us and can produce big time for Boston.

[SnoSki14]

We need the 50-50 feature to be in place. Otherwise, this cuts right into Erie and it's a nonevent for just about all of us.

 

The primary can only go so far north because of the PV, and it's not just going to run through the cold either. There's a lot of runs to go through so many options remain on the table.

[REDMK6GLI]

Shows to a T why Nina patterns are horrible for us and can produce big time for Boston.

Even before this tease it was already established unless a true -NAO was established clippers/SWFE is where we'd predominently get our snow from. Cold, some snow, cold etc. blockbusters in this pattern will be near impossible to recieve

[MJO812]

We need the 50-50 feature to be in place. Otherwise, this cuts right into Erie and it's a nonevent for just about all of us.

I wouldn't call a few inches of overrunning a non event.

[JSantanaNYC]

I like how most of the time people here say, the pattern is

Not good fo snow. But most of the time we get those big storms during those bad patterns. And Then we have the "good pattern" with no storms.

[REDMK6GLI]

I wouldn't call a few inches of overrunning a non event.

In comparison to what we could get with this storm yes it would be a non-event. However, what adds to our annual snowfall totals should be an event so it is an "event" nonetheless

[Allsnow]

Gfs out to hr 93 light snow from the costal that's forming east of okx. It's def a earlier secondary.

Primary over southern ohio

[jm1220]

I wouldn't call a few inches of overrunning a non event.

If you consider the pre-Christmas systems for us winter storms than that should be good. The cold air should be established enough that it wouldn't be all rain anyway. But we have a long way to go with this-if the blocking is a little more steady and doesn't yield we have a better outcome. But without that in place we're cooked. It's a Miller B that we need the transfer south enough and more importantly the 850 and 700 low to close off early enough-that stops the warm air surging north.

[Allsnow]

Hr 96 light snow. Secondary taking over

[MJO812]

Further south and east with the secondary on this run. Colder for sure.

[Allsnow]

Hr 102 1008 east of nj. Light snow in area. Mod snow in sne.

[Allsnow]

This is a better run then 06z..nice trend. But it's still a bit late and east

[MJO812]

This is a better run then 06z..nice trend. But it's still a bit late and east

It's colder but it's weak.

[WintersGrasp]

Seems like an earlier formation of the secondary, but not early enough for any significant changes. Probably an inch or two in our area. SNE probably a 3-6. If anything, we get less moisture with this run

[PB GFI]

It's colder but it's weak.

It's a New England blizzard anth. It's not weak.

We will snow but the center is Boston not NYC

As a matter of fact the center is SNH. You will snow my man. But the big show is north. That's ok.

Think E Long Island does better than the city and points south

[jm1220]

Seems like an earlier formation of the secondary, but not early enough for any significant changes. Probably an inch or two in our area. SNE probably a 3-6. If anything, we get less moisture with this run

Mehh. The other good thing about blocking is that it slows the pattern down so that storms form in time for us.

[Zelocita Weather]

The primary is hardly. Factor on this run...weak and fades quickly, just a matter of how strong, quick, and nw the coastal is...

[WintersGrasp]

Not to be selfish and not want any snow for the SNE'ers....but you have to admit...it IS easier to accept a miss when the storm doesn't blow up enough for a huge storm in ANY area, isn't it ?

[jm1220]

It's colder but it's weak.

Energy looks very strung out this run, and overall quite progressive. I guess this shows the other extreme of the potential outcomes.

[TWCCraig]

Clown maps show about 12" for BOS. Around 3" NYC east. Less south, more north.

[Allsnow]

The primary is hardly. Factor on this run...weak and fades quickly, just a matter of how strong, quick, and nw the coastal is...

It was a nice run away from last nights runs of holding the primary on too long. Gfs has light snow in the area just after midnight Thursday morning

[MJO812]

Energy looks very strung out this run, and overall quite progressive. I guess this shows the other extreme of the potential outcomes.

I wonder if this is the bias of the GFS or just like you said, another potential outcome.

[NEG NAO]

It's colder but it's weak.

The 12Z GFS is using its Bias to crush most of the southern energy - so this run has to be discounted and have to wait for the ensembles to see if there is a difference in the handling of the southern energy - the 12Z NAM and the 0Z Euro is not crushing that energy - also the system is still offshore out west so the models are not sampling it yet

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013122912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us.html

[SnoSki14]

The storm the gfs shows is relatively weak and disjointed even for SNE. Another story that is generally ignored for obvious reasons is the cold right after the storm, highs would not get out of the teens on Friday and lows below zero are likely to the N&W. 

[Zelocita Weather]

Total precip NYC is about .25-.30, Boston is .90, DC not a flake

[PB GFI]

Total precip NYC is about .25-.30, Boston is .90, DC not a flake

At 96 hrs the primary dies it doesn't head to Pitt and there's already a surface reflection off hatteras

I am a little unsure as to why this isn't deepening east of AC , it doesn't deepen until east of cape cod.

[TWCCraig]

At 96 hrs the primary dies it doesn't head to Pitt and there's already a surface reflection off hatteras

I am a little unsure as to why this isn't deepening east of AC , it doesn't deepen until east of cape cod.

 

Disjointed aloft and doesn't phase well.

[REDMK6GLI]

At 96 hrs the primary dies it doesn't head to Pitt and there's already a surface reflection off hatteras

I am a little unsure as to why this isn't deepening east of AC , it doesn't deepen until east of cape cod.

PB GFI i surprised you didnt add at the end of that "this is the GFS so we'll never know the methods of what it does" lol. Looked a little odd to me for sure, we do have king euro at 1 pm which should clarify if the GFS is once again smoking what it shouldnt be again

[jm1220]

At 96 hrs the primary dies it doesn't head to Pitt and there's already a surface reflection off hatteras

I am a little unsure as to why this isn't deepening east of AC , it doesn't deepen until east of cape cod.

The energy is strung out and progressive. The storm is shunted east before it can really get its act together. The GFS has a bias of doing this too quickly, so I'd lean more toward the amplified solutions like last night's Euro run. But the GFS is possible too if the trough is being shoved east like that.