January 2 - 3 Winter Storm Potential

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

I like that look so much better then the op run. The gfs mean being se 4 days out is fine by me.

No. I'm saying it's too far ne which is less desirable.

[NEG NAO]

Careful were still roughly 4-5 days away on this storm. There will be model waffling and this is to be expected. They're will be changes today, monday, tuesday and the way its going into thursday as well. Are they're some red flags as to be concerned about? Yea sure, but these are models after all that can pick up a shortwaves fart and change an outcome a good bit as well. Caution yourselves

agree 100 % . I see 2 problems with this system and the models. First of all without a negative NAO in a pattern being dominated by the northern stream after this southern system comes on up today - everything is allowed to just rush on through West Coast to off East Coast with nothing to slow it down or amplify it. Secondly the system is not over land to be sampled properly by the models - so the jury is still out and will be determined by these 2 factors......

[Allsnow]

No. I'm saying it's too far ne which is less desirable.

The secondary on the mean? It's further south then the op.

[Weathergun]

I'm not liking the trends of the 0z suit. The 06z is nothing more then 1-2. We need development further south and a primary track south of Pitt. The gfs seems so much faster then the euro also.

 

We have 5 days to go. It won't that much change in the Atlantic pattern to cause further south solution. I'm also concerned the GFS and Euro are underplaying the STJ here. Which can result in larger coastal storm. 

Have not look at idv members but the 06z gfs mean is beautiful. Primary track over ky and redevelopment east of okx.

That's too far east man. We would miss out.

This is the first time the GFS ensemble mean have shown an OH/TN Valley low. So the whole system may shift north on the next run.

[REDMK6GLI]

We have 5 days to go. It won't that much change in the Atlantic pattern to cause further south solution. I'm also concerned the GFS and Euro are underplaying the STJ here. Which can result in larger coastal storm.

This is the first time the GFS ensemble mean have shown an OH/TN Valley low. So the whole system may shift north on the next run.

I agree that if the phase does occur idealy in this pattern the models will continue to get wetter as we know gulf moisture really makes these system very moisture laden. We'll see with todays model suites i suppose

[REDMK6GLI]

agree 100 % . I see 2 problems with this system and the models. First of all without a negative NAO in a pattern being dominated by the northern stream after this southern system comes on up today - everything is allowed to just rush on through West Coast to off East Coast with nothing to slow it down or amplify it. Secondly the system is not over land to be sampled properly by the models - so the jury is still out and will be determined by these 2 factors......

To build on this, how many times over the past ten years have these models done this to us with big storms this far out even with a great setup? Surprised some people on this board arent used to the model waffling whether the storm does hit us hard or not

[NEG NAO]

The new Indicies forecast is just in and for Jan 2 -3 the AO is going to be close to neg 1 - the NAO is right at neutral trending after that to positive ( part of the problem ) the PNA  is slightly positive less then 1 - the EPO is Neg - and the MJO as of yesterday was right on the border of the COD and phase 5 and 6 (another problem)

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

[NEG NAO]

The 12Z NAM is just in - notice the difference in the precip down south on the 84 hr Nam and the 90 hr 6Z GFS both at 0Z Jan 2 - seems the GFS is missing the southern precip .

 

6Z GFS at 00Z Jan 2

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013122906/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

 

12Z Nam at 00z Jan 2

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2013122912/namconus_reflectivity_us_27.png

[Storm At Sea]

Ensemble means are a bit mis-leading...most members are well north of NYC while just a few are well south = mean that appears to benefit us most

[Storm At Sea]

Gfs used to over-emphasize northern stream energy...not sure if thats still the case

The 12Z NAM is just in - notice the difference in the precip down south on the 84 hr Nam and the 90 hr 6Z GFS both at 0Z Jan 2 - seems the GFS is missing the southern precip .

6Z GFS at 00Z Jan 2

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013122906/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

12Z Nam at 00z Jan 2

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2013122912/namconus_reflectivity_us_27.png

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The 12Z NAM is just in - notice the difference in the precip down south on the 84 hr Nam and the 90 hr 6Z GFS both at 0Z Jan 2 - seems the GFS is missing the southern precip .

6Z GFS at 00Z Jan 2

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013122906/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

12Z Nam at 00z Jan 2

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2013122912/namconus_reflectivity_us_27.png

The 12Z NAM looks very promising.

[SnoSki14]

If January of 1994 is still the leading analog, then all signs point to more of an incing event than anything else. 

[Storm At Sea]

Nam is the only saving grace IMO. Vort looks to be diving much more south

The 12Z NAM looks very promising.

[Chaser25973]

One thing nobody is talking about here are the temps. Channel 7 had us at a low of 8 degrees and a high of 18 during the height of the storm. If that were to verify, snow ratios could be 20:1. So half an inch of liquid could get us 20 inches of snow... very fluffy snow.

[PB GFI]

Gfs used to over-emphasize northern stream energy...not sure if thats still the case

The NAM center is into N ILL , looks more Canadian like to me. It's further N than the GFS and that has me worried

At its 84 hrs I'm not gona lose sleep but we are gona need ths in mid Ohio valley. Not head towards Pitt or buff

[Fields27]

Is the GFS on it's on with the lack of southern stream energy? I agree with MK6GLI, these models are going to drive everyone nuts right up to 24-48 out. 

[SnoSki14]

The storm looks very similar to what we had earlier this month with the overrunning and coastal transfer. The primary is once again the problem and the highs aren't strong enough so the cold air becomes marginal although it's probably a colder storm than the December system. Miller B's are a huge pain when you don't have a decent Atlantic pattern because they will always favor those further north and often times they trend further north. 

 

SWFE and clippers/redeveloping clippers are still probably are best chance at some snowfall this season. 

[EasternLI]

One thing nobody is talking about here are the temps. Channel 7 had us at a low of 8 degrees and a high of 18 during the height of the storm. If that were to verify, snow ratios could be 20:1. So half an inch of liquid could get us 20 inches of snow... very fluffy snow.

 

If there is a primary to the west, this would not be the case

[Mikehobbyst]

Does anyone think this will be a .50 to .75" QPF type ice storm for NYC and LI with current trends ??

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

The storm looks very similar to what we had earlier this month with the overrunning and coastal transfer. The primary is once again the problem and the highs aren't strong enough so the cold air becomes marginal although it's probably a colder storm than the December system. Miller B's are a huge pain when you don't have a decent Atlantic pattern because they will always favor those further north and often times they trend further north.

SWFE and clippers/redeveloping clippers are still probably are best chance at some snowfall this season.

This.

[NEG NAO]

Does anyone think this will be a .50 to .75" QPF type ice storm for NYC and LI with current trends ??

right now these are the top analogs - you have to look at the ones with a neutral ENSO

 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F120&flg=

 

the first one with the neutral ENSO was all rain - so discounted that

 

the second one was this 

 

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/08-Feb-94.html

[REDMK6GLI]

Currently analyzing all forecast data the primary is holding on way too long. We need it to start coastal transfer around lower ohio valley. This primary goes pitt. And north before transfer its game set match for us on the coast. Im going to be watching the primary closely on the models today.

[Ralph Wiggum]

These models all have the 850 low in the Lakes and OV...much like the Dec storm.

[MJO812]

Miller B's tend to favor New England more than our area. There were some instances where our area received more snow than areas to our north. We just have to hope that the primary transfers further south so the secondary can blow up further to the south.

[EasternLI]

Currently analyzing all forecast data the primary is holding on way too long. We need it to start coastal transfer around lower ohio valley. This primary goes pitt. And north before transfer its game set match for us on the coast. Im going to be watching the primary closely on the models today.

 

We sort of need the brief -nao and favorable PV position, otherwise we're cooked I'm afraid. Not to mention pna, very fragile setup. Still interesting

[REDMK6GLI]

We sort of need the brief -nao and favorable PV position, otherwise we're cooked I'm afraid. Not to mention pna, very fragile setup. Still interesting

Im going to bet this will be too late for us. The blocking got weaker from whatever we had overnight. The setup is fragile to say the least like you said. Wouldnt be too surprising if by friday we'll be on the NE subforum and enjoying it over there

[Storm At Sea]

Gfs closes 850 mb low later in the game which helps the coast a bit.

Im not going to lie...this looks like a SNE special.

These models all have the 850 low in the Lakes and OV...much like the Dec storm.

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

I don't get why some many people are up set. If you look at the over all pattern from November to present this storm is doing what all the other storms in early December have been doing, patterns are very hard to brake, don't get me wrong I love snow and I am pulling for it trust me I work for con Edison everytime it snows we are on 12 hour shifts, but I just don't see this storm being anything different from the the last few storms we had it has been the pattern of this winter so far.

[PB GFI]

Gfs closes 850 mb low later in the game which helps the coast a bit.

Im not going to lie...this looks like a SNE special.

I thnk if people are contenet with NYC getting 6 and ok watching Boston get 20 then there shouldn't be many unhappy here .

People because I thnk that's where the max is aimed .

This time unlike dec 16 ths storm. It's cold behind. Not of ths gets washed away and u may snow again early next week .

[REDMK6GLI]

Gfs closes 850 mb low later in the game which helps the coast a bit.

Im not going to lie...this looks like a SNE special.

Even me on LI would be late for me. Fits what the pattern has been like this whole winter perfectly pretty much