January 2 - 3 Winter Storm Potential

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

6z GFS looks better already at 72 hours. Better ridging and looks like it will dig more as a result.

[Rjay]

And, meteorologically, it makes zero sense for a primary to be that strong and that far north given the pattern. This all sounds similar to the GFS from 24 hours ago and does not concern me one bit. Models just playing do-si-do as always.

50/50 not is a great position (not at 50/50 lol) .... Weak blocking...

[Rjay]

There's still potential on the models. We will see them waffle as well. But I like out chances as of now to see at least some snow in the area.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

At hour 90, not looking nearly as good as it did earlier in the run.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

6z GFS okay but not an optimal run for NYC. 0z was better. Best action even further north. All northern stream and completely different than the Euro/GGEM/Ukie,

[Rjay]

Hr 108 , 108 mb low 50 miles east of cape may

850 low over north central NYS (correct me if I'm wrong).

Low bombs SE of Cape Cod but doesnt look to great for anyone and it's south, colder and faster of most guidance I have seen.

Some light snow in our area. More snow in coastal SNE but not nearly as much as other models are showing. Surface looks cold

[PB GFI]

This has become a disjointed POS for us . The models now buy the idea that the 1st center goes to PITT and then u secondary . That's a great solution for NE just not for us.

You're risk with Miller Bs is sometimes they just bomb out too late. The 0z run of the Euro puts down 4 inches of snow in NYC the 6z GFS 2 But they both put down 15 in Boston .

Now this is frustrating , the center to Pitt KILLS this for us . That fly in the ointment will pull ur heavy snow axis N

When the models flip to an idea inside 4 days they rarely flip back to the favorable solution

I know the gut reaction is to say ok lets wait for the next model run but that's gona b hard to do here .

You will need to deepen this system East of AC instead of Montauk , and that's what's needed here .

My fear is , this can easily trend worse as easily as it can trend better. So lets hope we can somehow get some help and the front sags 100 miles S otherwise the real QPF bomb is in NE . We snow but they SNOW

The heaviest axis mayb aimed for NE and the 12z euro ensembles hinted at it yesterday and that frustrating after seeing this on the models 10 days ago.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Disappointing post from you PB. First, the euro had 6-8" for NYC and is a southern stream tapped system. Completely different evolution and result from the gfs. The ggem and ukie also have this idea. So, really, the gfs is on its own. And your claim that models rarely change to more favorable solutions inside of 4 days is just patently not correct sorry.

[PB GFI]

Disappointing post from you PB. First, the euro had 6-8" for NYC and is a southern stream tapped system. Completely different evolution and result from the gfs. The ggem and ukie also have this idea. So, really, the gfs is on its own. And your claim that models rarely change to more favorable solutions inside of 4 days is just patently not correct sorry.

Yeh I amended the post after my frustration level subsided

[bluewave]

Look how the 0z run weakened the Davis Strait block from 12z to account for the shift.

 

12z

 

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Yeh I amended the post after my frustration level subsided

gonna be a long four days

[bluewave]

gonna be a long four days

 

And we really don't know if the westward shift will continue due to uncertainty with the blocking and amplitude so we end up

with something like VD 2007. 

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

And we really don't know if the westward shift will continue due to uncertainty with the blocking and amplitude so we end up

with something like VD 2007.

Yup. This really is a total crap shoot right now. Every solution is on the table.

[PB GFI]

And we really don't know if the westward shift will continue due to uncertainty with the blocking and amplitude so we end up

with something like VD 2007.

This runs the arctic boundary so it possible we can sag 100 miles over 4 days . It would kill they 1st center in Ohio and u wana secondary off

AC.

[bluewave]

Yup. This really is a total crap shoot right now. Every solution is on the table.

 

I suppose that yesterday's run may have been too quick to build a block where there was not one there before.

But it doesn't surprise me since this storm just appeared in the Euro ensembles Friday afternoon. We had been

focusing on the WEdnesday Clipper -Arctic frontal wave. Sometimes when these storms pop up so quickly,

the models can be very unstable form run to run until they get a good handle on the situation.

[PB GFI]

One good rule of thumb when watching the models today , the axis of heaviest snow will usually fall

Where you see that initial finger of moisture steaks east ( overrunning ) it will give you an idea as to where the center will max out

It's where the true arctic boundary is

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

I suppose that yesterday's run may have been too quick to build a block where there was not one there before.

But it doesn't surprise me since this storm just appeared in the Euro ensembles Friday afternoon. We had been

focusing on the WEdnesday Clipper -Arctic frontal wave. Sometimes when these storms pop up so quickly,

the models can be very unstable form run to run until they get a good handle on the situation.

And they will continue to be unstable until Wednesday.

[bluewave]

And they will continue to be unstable until Wednesday.

 

Models can get really screwy around  AO phase changes. We can remember how the Euro really

messed up with the 12-17-10 storm forecast with around the time of the record blocking.

 

[WintersGrasp]

I'm surprised at the similarity between the models this far out....although the result is not one if like to see. Basically a couple inches of snow here and a 4-8" event for SNE

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

I'm surprised at the similarity between the models this far out....although the result is not one if like to see. Basically a couple inches of snow here and a 4-8" event for SNE

The two models that matter most could not be more different.

[REDMK6GLI]

I for one kind of expected this confusion with the pattern being fast flowed and so many nuances that can have big implications down the road with phasing. Who knows we may not see a full model consensus until boxing day crunch time ( 48 hrs. Until impact ) the way its going. Level heads everyone we all know this pattern is fragile to begin with lets not get greedy

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

I for one kind of expected this confusion with the pattern being fast flowed and so many nuances that can have big implications down the road with phasing. Who knows we may not see a full model consensus until boxing day crunch time ( 48 hrs. Until impact ) the way its going. Level heads everyone we all know this pattern is fragile to begin with lets not get greedy

Good post agreed.

[Weathergun]

Look how the 0z run weakened the Davis Strait block from 12z to account for the shift.

 

12z

 

post-564-0-57779900-1388256449.gif

 

oz

 

EDH101-120N.gif

 

The PNA ridge axis is little too far west than the ideal position over ID/MT. It gives the trough more room to amplify early. We need enough blocking/PV to force primary low to transfer faster to secondary low, along the coast:

 

[EasternLI]

The PNA ridge axis is little too far west than the ideal position over ID/MT. It gives the trough more room to amplify early. We need enough blocking/PV to force primary low to transfer faster to secondary low, along the coast:

 

 

 

Looks like it shifted the PV slightly more east as well, something to look for today

[bluewave]

The PNA ridge axis is little too far west than the ideal position over ID/MT. It gives the trough more room to amplify early. We need enough blocking/PV to force primary low to transfer faster to secondary low, along the coast:

 

 

Just goes to show how a tiny change in blocking impacts storm tracks around here.

 

 

[Allsnow]

0z Euro ensemble mean now shows an Ohio Valley low transferring at secondary 1008mb low just east of the Delmarva. Between 108hr-120hr. The 850mb 0C line is south of the region. But the 850mb low is still over NW PA/Western NY at 120hr. Then by 132hr, the secondary surface low than bombs out too 994mb, about 150 miles east of Cape Cod. The 850mb temps crash behind it.

I'm not liking the trends of the 0z suit. The 06z is nothing more then 1-2. We need development further south and a primary track south of Pitt. The gfs seems so much faster then the euro also.

[Allsnow]

Have not look at idv members but the 06z gfs mean is beautiful. Primary track over ky and redevelopment east of okx.

[REDMK6GLI]

Careful were still roughly 4-5 days away on this storm. There will be model waffling and this is to be expected. They're will be changes today, monday, tuesday and the way its going into thursday as well. Are they're some red flags as to be concerned about? Yea sure, but these are models after all that can pick up a shortwaves fart and change an outcome a good bit as well. Caution yourselves

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Have not look at idv members but the 06z gfs mean is beautiful. Primary track over ky and redevelopment east of okx.

That's too far north and east man. We would miss out.

[Allsnow]

That's too far east man. We would miss out.

I like that look so much better then the op run. The gfs mean being se 4 days out is fine by me.